After two jaw-dropping semifinals, the final lineup for the 2026 Australian Open has been set, as top seed Carlos Alcaraz will battle it out against the fourth seed, Novak Djokovic, on February 1st (Sunday). While this will be the first final at Melbourne Park for Alcaraz, it will be an 11th final for Djokovic, who has never lost a final in Melbourne.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Match Details
Date: Feb. 1, 2026
Tournament: Australian Open 2026
Round: Final
Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Category: Grand Slam
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, RDS, Sky Sports
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic Head-to-Head
After nine meetings between the two, it is Djokovic who has a 5-4 lead in the head-to-head against Alcaraz. The last time they met was at the 2021 US Open semifinals, where the Spaniard won 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-2.
Alcaraz began his campaign with comfortable straight-set victories against the likes of Adam Walton, Yannick Hanfmann, and Corentin Moutet in the first few rounds. The top seed faced higher quality opposition in the form of Tommy Paul and Alex de Minaur in the fourth round and in the quarterfinals, respectively.
However, he did not break a sweat, winning 7-6(6), 6-4, 7-5 against the American, and then winning 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 against the home favorite. In the semifinal, in a match that lasted for almost five and a half hours, he won 6-4, 7-6 (5), 6-7 (3), 6-7 (4), 7-5 against third-seeded Alexander Zverev.
Djokovic, on the other hand, did not drop a single set against the likes of Pedro Martinez, Francesco Maestrelli, and Botic Van de Zandschulp in the first few rounds. The Serb got large slices of luck in the next few rounds, as he got a bye from 16th-seeded Jakub Menšík in the fourth round, and then went through via retirement in the quarterfinal against Lorenzo Musetti, who had to retire due to injury even after winning the first two sets.
In what could be one of his best career performances, Djokovic overcame two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner in the semifinal, winning 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 against the Italian in a contest of over four hours.
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic Prediction
Alcaraz won 70 percent of his service points and 34 percent of the return points in his match against Zverev. He hit 78 winners, while making 58 unforced errors. However, what stood out in this match for the Spaniard was his mental fortitude. Having won the first two sets, it looked like smooth sailing for the 22-year-old.
However, late in the third set, Alcaraz developed an injury scare, which impaired his movement. As a result, the Spaniard did not invest much energy in the return games and only focused on his own serve. This gave Zverev the window of opportunity, and he won the next two sets in tiebreaks.
In the fifth set, the German player got the early break and was leading 5-3 and had all the momentum. But Alcaraz, who had recovered sufficiently by then, mounted a terrific comeback and won four straight games to win the match.
Djokovic won 65 percent of the service points and 27 percent of the return points against Sinner. The Serb was outclassed in both stats by Sinner, who won 73 percent and 35 percent of the service and return points, respectively.
However, the one key stat that was in favor of Novak Djokovic was the break point conversion, with the Serb saving 16 of the 18 break points he faced, including 8 in the fifth set, while he converted 3 of the 8 break points he got on Sinner’s serve. The fourth seed got only one break point in the fifth set, which he converted and then held on to cross the finish line.
The PFSN Simulator has put Alcaraz as the favorite with a win probability of 70 percent, but with what Djokovic did in the semifinal, he once again proved that counting him out would be a mistake.
Recovery would be a key thing, as both players had marathon semifinals, with Alcaraz having the injury and Djokovic being a 38-year-old. The match has the prospects of being a tremendous clash, but given his form and the fact that he has beaten Djokovic in a five-set Grand Slam final before, Alcaraz would be the slight favorite going in Sunday’s final.
Pick- Alcaraz to win in five sets
