The women’s singles semifinal lineup is all set at the 2026 Australian Open, with all four players being seeded. While top seed Aryna Sabalenka will take on 12th-seeded Elina Svitolina, the other semifinal will see the fifth and sixth seeds, Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula, battle it out for a spot in the final on Jan. 31. Let’s take a look at the two semifinal matchups scheduled for Jan. 29.
Aryna Sabalenka Is Looking for a Third Crown at Melbourne As She Takes On Elina Svitolina
Top seed Sabalenka is well on her way to a third title at Melbourne Park, and her next challenger will be Ukraine’s Svitolina in the semifinal. Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at this event, winning her matches against Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Bai Zhuoxuan, Anastasia Potapova, and Victoria Mboko to reach the quarterfinals. In the final eight, she won 6-3, 6-0 against American teen sensation Iva Jovic.
Svitolina has yet to drop a set at Melbourne this year as well. The Ukrainian won her first three rounds against Cristin Bucsa, Linda Klimovičová, and Diana Shnaider. In the next two rounds, the WTA veteran scored two huge upsets, winning 6-2, 6-4 against eighth-seeded Mirra Andreeva in the fourth round and winning 6-1, 6-2 against third-seeded Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals.
The head-to-head is 5-1 in favor of Sabalenka, and the PFSN Exclusive Simulator puts the Belarusian’s winning chances at 81 percent. If service and return stats for both players are compared for 2026, Sabalenka has won 90.7 percent of the service games and 40.9 percent of the return games, compared to Svitolina, who has won 85.8 percent of the service games and 28.9 percent of the return games this year.
Both players are undefeated this year, with Sabalenka winning a title in Brisbane and Svitolina winning a title in Auckland, coming into Melbourne. However, given Sabalenka’s record at Melbourne Park and her head-to-head record against Svitolina, the Belarusian is the favorite to win.
Pick– Sabalenka to win in straight sets
Jessica Pegula Will Face Elena Rybakina To Reach Her First Final in Australia
Pegula will look to reach her first Australian Open final as she faces Rybakina in the semifinal. Pegula has been in fine form in Melbourne this year, yet to drop a set. She began her event with wins over the likes of Anastasia Zakharova, McCartney Kessler, and Oksana Selekhmeteva in the first three rounds.
The sixth seed then scored two huge victories, winning 6-3, 6-4 against defending champion Madison Keys in the fourth round, and then winning 6-2, 7-6 (1) against fourth-seeded Amanda Anisimova in the quarterfinal.
Rybakina, meanwhile, began her campaign with straight-set wins over Kaja Juvan, Varvara Gracheva, Tereza Valentová, and Elise Mertens to reach the quarterfinals. The Kazakh played a great match against the second-seeded Iga Świątek, winning 7-5, 6-1 against the Pole to reach the semifinal in Melbourne for the second time in her career.
The head-to-head is tied at 3-3, but the PFSN Exclusive Simulator has put Rybakina as the favorite, giving a 62 percent win probability to the Kazakh. 2026 stats show that Pegula has won 70.5 percent of the service games and 31.9 percent of her return games. Rybakina outscores her on both fronts, winning 81.2 percent and 34.4 percent of the service and return games, respectively.
Given the current form and the fact that Rybakina has won her last two matches against Pegula on hard courts last year, the Kazakh player is the favorite to win and reach her second Australian Open final.
Pick– Rybakina to win in three sets
