Oregon quarterback Dante Moore will soon reveal his 2026 NFL Draft decision. Should he declare, potentially joining Fernando Mendoza as one of the top passers off the board? Or should he return to school, refine his game, and compete for a National Championship?
Dante Moore Nearing Fateful 2026 NFL Draft Decision as Nation Awaits
Ever since he got off to a hot start in his first season as Oregon’s starting QB, Moore was battling to claim the QB1 mantle in the 2026 NFL Draft alongside Mendoza.
The former five-star recruit took his lumps in his true freshman season at UCLA, but he transferred, took his time developing behind the scenes, and emerged as a legitimate high-caliber signal caller who helped lead his team to the CFB Playoff Semifinals.
Ultimately, Moore and the Ducks fell just short, but the spotlight is still centered on Moore as he mulls over his 2026 NFL Draft declaration decision.
As of this writing, Moore has not made a decision known, but speculation has run rampant. Moore’s backup QBs, Austin Novosad and Luke Moga, both transferred out. While Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola has transferred in, he is positioned to potentially sit for a year while recovering from his broken ankle, much like Moore sat behind Dillon Gabriel.
Other pieces to the puzzle also align with Moore returning. Many of the Ducks’ priority players have returned to school, including potential top-50 picks A’Mauri Washington, Matayo Uiagalelei, and Iapani Laloulu, as well as Teitum Tuioti, all seeking another shot at winning a National Championship.
The Ducks’ roster under Dan Lanning is young, on the come-up, and hasn’t yet reached its full potential. Some in the scouting community have said the same about Moore. He’s a clear first-round QB prospect, but the late-season stretch exposed areas of needed improvement, most notably his internal clock and good but non-elite processing speed.
MORE: PFSN’s Mock Draft Simulator
Moore still has room to see and feel things a bit quicker, and the best solution for that is additional experience. Moore is still just 20 years old and would be just a 22-year-old rookie if he waited until the 2027 NFL Draft cycle. He still only has 20 starts under his belt, five of which came in a chaotic debut season.
But all of these nuggets of information are anecdotal. Let’s get down to brass tacks: Where does Moore grade right now? What does he stand to gain by declaring? What does he stand to gain by returning, and what is the best outcome for him?
Dante Moore NFL Draft Decision: Should the Oregon QB Stay or Go?
There were times across the 2025 season when Moore legitimately challenged Mendoza for QB1 on my 2026 NFL Draft board. However, down the stretch, Mendoza continued to separate himself in the Big Ten Championship and the CFB Playoffs, while Moore started to lose ground.
Entering the postseason, Moore had thrown for 24 touchdowns and just six interceptions, registering a strong PFSN QB Impact score of 86.9 over that stretch. In the CFB Playoffs, however, additional volatility was unearthed in Moore’s game.
In the CFB Playoffs, Moore turned the ball over just as much as he scored TDs (four INTs and two fumbles lost, including a pick-six on the first play of the Indiana game), and his failure to elevate down the stretch no doubt left a bad taste in some evaluators’ mouths.
The body of work still looks favorably upon Moore. While he’s not a blue-chip QB prospect anymore, his evaluation score of 89.56 still places him in the class’ top-10, comfortably as the class QB2 over Alabama’s Ty Simpson.
Moore’s production and efficiency remain strong. He’s still worthy of being selected in the top end of the first round if he declares, and with the QB class looking incredibly sparse past Mendoza, Moore would be in position to capitalize with likely top-ten capital.
But amidst all this speculation in favor of declaring, one pressing question looms, along with Moore’s lack of a National Championship trophy: Is Moore ready?
Moore assuredly has a strong enough processing profile to survive on day one in most systems, but we’ve seen subpar environments break QBs before. Moore’s struggles in the CFB Playoffs further emphasize the risks of him entering the wrong situation. The Jets and Cardinals, picking at No. 2 and No. 3, both have their warts as landing spots.
This, of course, is a risk regardless of the year of declaration. The flawed teams pick first; that truth remains constant. That risk alone isn’t enough to pass up a rookie contract likely worth over $30 million in guarantees, if Moore is picked in the top-10, and over $40 million if he’s picked in the top-five, as seems likely given the current QB scarcity.
That said, NIL has added an extra dynamic to this discussion. If Moore stays in school, he’ll still get a hefty NIL payday, he’ll get to accrue more experience and further refine his processing profile, and he’ll get to compete once again for a National Championship. And if he at least retains his 2025 level of play, he’ll still be a QB1 candidate in the 2027 cycle.
Moore’s current NIL valuation, around $2.3 million, pales in comparison to the NFL payday that might await if he declares, and it’s certainly a gamble to return to school hoping to lock down next year’s No. 1 overall pick.
Other QBs, such as Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier, elected to exhaust their eligibility in the recent past, only to starkly regress. Nussmeier is now a Day 3 pick at best. Allar could be a UDFA. But neither of them were even close to Moore as prospects, and in hindsight, both of their names were elevated due to class scarcity.
Moore is a Round 1 prospect, right here, right now. If he declares, he won’t go No. 1 overall over Mendoza, but he’d still likely be a top-five or top-ten pick.
If Moore returns, he’s a relatively regression-safe prospect with a great skill set and a great mindset, but regression still exists as a possibility, as does catastrophic injury. And the No. 1 overall pick in 2027 won’t be his alone to fight for. New competition will come in the form of Arch Manning, Drew Mestemaker, and others.
There’s also the emotional component to take into account. Moore has expressed his love for Oregon and for his teammates more than once before. And just before Oregon’s game against Indiana, Moore himself acknowledged his journey is still progressing.
In 2025, he said: “There have been good moments… but I’m not at my best yet. I’m still looking for that.”
Ultimately, there are viable reasons to both declare or return. And it’ll come down to Moore himself to make the call.
My take is: If Moore wanted to “strike while the iron is hot”, the iron is hot enough for him to go early in Round 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft, accelerate his NFL timeline, and give one NFL franchise new hope.
But if Moore feels he’s still reaching for his ceiling and still has unfinished business for his NCAA title hopes, the NFL will be there for him when it’s finally time. Moore could be better for it by taking more time to develop, and in a best-case scenario, he has his cake and eats it, too.
