Sean Payton’s long, methodical rebuild in Denver finally came full circle in 2025 — and it showed in the standings. The Broncos powered through one of the AFC’s toughest divisions to finish 14-3, locking up the conference’s No. 1 seed and reclaiming Mile High as a postseason problem for visiting teams.
With a first-round bye secured, Denver now waits to see which contender survives Wild Card Weekend and earns a trip to altitude. The bigger question, though, is what the full playoff road looks like. Who could stand in the Broncos’ way, and how realistic is a Super Bowl run from here?
What Are the Denver Broncos’ Playoff Scenarios?
As the top seed in the AFC, Denver will host the lowest remaining seed in the conference in the Divisional Round.
That will be easy to calculate if the #7 seed Los Angeles Chargers defeat the #2 New England Patriots on Sunday night. PFSN’s Playoff Predictor gives L.A. a 39.8% chance to pull the upset, but most sportsbooks have the Chargers listed as a mere 3.5-point underdog against a Pats team that didn’t play a strong schedule.
#UPDATE: The Broncos will host the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round after the Bills and the New England Patriots won their respective games on Sunday.
If New England wins, the Buffalo Bills would earn a trip to Denver to face the Broncos if they can defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. Playoff Predictor gives them a 46.6% chance of doing so.
Should both Los Angeles and Buffalo lose on the road as odds suggest, the winner of Monday’s Texans-Steelers clash will make the trip to Mile High in the Divisional Round.
Will the Broncos Host the AFC Championship Game?
Denver’s path to hosting the AFC Championship is straightforward. If they win in the Divisional Round, they’ll do just that.
The Broncos have been a regular force in AFC Championship games, posting an 8-2 record. Their most recent appearance was a home win in 2016 that sent them to Super Bowl 50, where they went on to defeat the Carolina Panthers.
History and recent form both point to the same advantage: Denver at home is a different animal. Seven of the Broncos’ 10 AFC Championship appearances have been played at Mile High, and they’ve turned those moments into results, posting a dominant 6-1 record in those games. That edge hasn’t faded with time.
Since the start of the 2024 season, Denver owns a 14-3 home record, the second-best mark in the NFL, trailing only Buffalo. If the Broncos earn another deep playoff run, they’ll be doing it in a place where visiting teams rarely leave comfortably.
