Kevin Stefanski and Pete Carroll appear headed for the exits, but the two longest-tenured coaches in football remain in murkier waters–including one franchise that may have a soul-searching conversation on its hands.
Where Every Hot-Seat Coach Stands Ahead of Monday’s Firings
Adam Schefter delivered his annual pre-Black Monday assessment on ESPN’s “NFL Countdown” Sunday morning, and his intel paints a picture of a coaching carousel that won’t spin quite as wildly as the last two years. With the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans having already made midseason changes, the pool of openings figures to grow by only a handful on Monday–but those moves could reshape contending franchises.
Latest intel on the coaches who stay and the coaches who go: pic.twitter.com/uG2evNVsBW
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 4, 2026
The biggest surprise? Mike Tomlin, who heard “Fire Tomlin” chants inside Acrisure Stadium just a month ago, falls into Schefter’s “leaning to safe” category. The league’s longest-tenured head coach–now in his 19th season–appears set to return for a 20th.
“Now, he’s got one year left on his contract, and there’s a feeling from many that he will fulfill what he’s started,” Schefter said. “The fans in Pittsburgh were calling for his firing about a month ago, yet he is on the verge of winning a division. And the feeling is that he’ll be back in Pittsburgh for at least another year, though there will be conversations that occur.”
Those conversations carry weight. The Steelers face a March 1 deadline to pick up Tomlin’s 2027 option, and a decision to decline it would make him a lame-duck coach entering his final contracted season–an uncomfortable position for everyone involved. But firing Tomlin? That’s something the organization hasn’t done with a head coach since 1968, when Bill Austin was let go before Chuck Noll’s legendary run began.
The Ravens’ situation is thornier. John Harbaugh, who has battled Tomlin in the AFC North for 18 years, earned a different designation from Schefter: “up in the air.”
Baltimore entered the season as the favorite to win Super Bowl 60. They’ll be watching the playoffs from home if they lose to Pittsburgh on Sunday night. The Ravens have blown six double-digit fourth-quarter leads since 2019–tied with the Bears for the most in the NFL–and set a franchise record with six home losses this season.
Harbaugh’s relationship with Lamar Jackson has generated increasing speculation, and owner Steve Bisciotti’s competitive nature could fuel difficult conversations regardless of how tonight’s game unfolds.
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Harbaugh, who signed a three-year extension in March that runs through 2028, deflected job-security questions at his Monday press conference two weeks ago: “I try to do the job, not try to keep the job.”
Cleveland and Las Vegas appear destined for changes. Schefter listed Kevin Stefanski as “expected out” despite his two Coach of the Year awards, and multiple reports indicate the Browns have already begun researching potential replacements. Diana Russini of The Athletic reported that Cleveland is “leaning toward moving on” from Stefanski, with general manager Andrew Berry likely to stay and lead the coaching search.
The two-time Coach of the Year has won just seven games over the past two seasons, though the quarterback carousel–from Deshaun Watson’s injuries to a rotation of rookies–deserves significant blame. Stefanski will have no shortage of suitors. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported the Giants would be “an ideal fit” should Stefanski become available.
Pete Carroll’s one-and-done tenure in Las Vegas also appears finished. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said plainly: “We’ll see if Pete Carroll is there for it. I doubt it.”
The Raiders fired two coordinators during the season, including an offensive coordinator owed $12 million over the next two years, but retained Carroll’s two sons, who oversee underperforming units. Minority owners Tom Brady and Richard Seymour are expected to have significant influence over the next hire.
Which Coaches Are Safe Heading Into the Offseason
Schefter’s “safe” or “probably safe” tier included several coaches who heard whispers earlier this season.
Zac Taylor earned a definitive “safe” designation in Cincinnati despite missing the playoffs for a second straight year. Joe Burrow’s injury and the Bengals’ slow start couldn’t overshadow back-to-back blowout wins to close the season–or the franchise’s history of loyalty to its coaches.
Todd Bowles falls into the “probably safe” category even after Tampa Bay went 1-7 in its final eight games following a 6-2 start. Three straight NFC South titles–with a fourth still possible pending Saturday’s results–provide job security most coaches would envy, even if Bowles’ postseason record (1-3) leaves something to be desired.
Raheem Morris also earned “probably safe” status in Atlanta, where owner Arthur Blank will evaluate the football operation at season’s end. The Falcons haven’t produced a winning season in five years under general manager Terry Fontenot, but Morris is in his second year, and the team showed signs of life down the stretch.
Jonathan Gannon’s seat appeared hottest among the “probably safe” group after Arizona collapsed from a 2-0 start to 3-13.
The Cardinals lost five games by 20-plus points from November on, and their defense–Gannon’s supposed specialty–ranked among the league’s worst. But first-year growing pains and the organization’s apparent commitment to development may buy him another season.
The quieter Black Monday won’t mean a less consequential one. When Stefanski walks into his exit meeting and Carroll cleans out his office, two franchises with playoff aspirations will officially reset. And in Baltimore, an 18-year partnership between Harbaugh and the Ravens may face its most uncertain moment yet–regardless of what happens Sunday night against Pittsburgh.
