The Denver Broncos have been one of the NFL’s best teams this season, earning a second straight playoff appearance behind quarterback Bo Nix and one of the league’s top defenses. They’ve already clinched the AFC West title heading into the regular-season finale, leaving just one prize still on the table: the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Broncos Top Seed Scenarios in Week 18
Denver’s resume is built on consistency in close games. 11 of the Broncos’ 13 wins have come by one score, and two of their three losses were also decided by a single possession.
While that speaks to how tight many of their games have been, it shouldn’t detract from what they’ve accomplished, especially considering they’ve faced a tougher schedule than teams like the New England Patriots.
With both a playoff spot and the division title secured, the Broncos will host the Los Angeles Chargers in the season finale. The Chargers have also clinched a playoff berth but are resting key starters, including quarterback Justin Herbert. As a result, Denver enters Week 18 as a strong favorite.
According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, the Broncos have an 81.5% chance of beating the Chargers. If that projection holds, Denver will secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed, guaranteeing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Even if Denver doesn’t win outright, there are still scenarios in which the Broncos can claim the top seed. A tie against the Chargers, combined with either a loss or tie by the Patriots against the Miami Dolphins, would still be enough.
In the event of a Broncos loss, Denver would need even more help, specifically, a Patriots loss, or a tie or loss by the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Tennessee Titans, to remain in the No. 1 spot.
Per PFSN’s projections, the Broncos hold an 82.93% chance of finishing with the top seed. If those scenarios don’t play out, Denver could slide to either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, with probabilities of 7.59% and 9.48%, respectively.
All signs point to Denver earning the No. 1 seed and securing home-field advantage. If so, the Broncos would likely face one of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, or Baltimore Ravens in their first playoff game, though several moving parts will determine the final matchup once Week 18 concludes.
Regardless of how the bracket shakes out, Denver enters the postseason with momentum and confidence. With an elite defense, steady quarterback play from Nix, and Sean Payton emerging as a strong Coach of the Year candidate, the Broncos remain a legitimate Super Bowl contender as January football begins.
