Alongside the AFC North, the NFC South has been one of the most disappointing divisions of the season. Unless a team wins the division, no NFC South team will reach the playoffs.
But with the regular season in its final stretch, the race for the division title has tightened considerably, with the Carolina Panthers holding a narrow edge.
Who Is the Favorite in the NFC South?
The division landscape shifted significantly in Week 16, when the Panthers defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–20 at home. That win pushed Carolina into first place at 8–7, while Tampa Bay dropped to 7–8.
The Atlanta Falcons sit third at 6–9, and the New Orleans Saints, now 6–10, have been eliminated from postseason contention.
Both the Panthers and the Buccaneers lost in Week 17, and the division will be decided in Week 18. According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, the Panthers currently have a 59.60% chance of reaching the postseason and winning the NFC South, while the Buccaneers sit at 40.40%.
Tampa Bay traveled to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 and carried a 50.4% chance of winning that matchup. Carolina, meanwhile, hosted the Seattle Seahawks, but entered with just a 30.2% chance of pulling off the upset.
Tampa Bay would have been eliminated from division contention if either of the following had occurred:
- Carolina wins, and Tampa Bay loses or ties
- Carolina ties, and Tampa Bay loses
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Since both teams lost in Week 17, Carolina still needs to win the regular-season finale to secure a playoff spot. Otherwise, the division would be decided by tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head: 1–1
- Division record: Both teams are at 3–3
- Common opponents: Tampa Bay holds the edge (6–6 vs. 5–7)
Before the Panthers’ Week 16 win over Tampa Bay, far more outcomes favored the Buccaneers winning the division, and Tampa Bay controlled its own destiny by needing to win two of its final three games. Now, the Buccaneers must win in Week 17 to make the playoffs and defend the NFC South division title.
Despite the volatility, both teams remain in control of their destiny. The Panthers may hold a slight edge, but anything can happen in Week 18. However, Baker Mayfield has played quite poorly for a prolonged period now, and Carolina will hope to capitalize on it.
And if the 2025 season has taught us anything under Dave Canales and Bryce Young, it’s that just when the Panthers seem ready to fade away, they find a way back into the conversation.
