The Edmonton Oilers appear to have found their rhythm after a sluggish start to the season. They now sit third in the Pacific Division with a 19-13-6 record and have won four of their last five games, showing signs of the form fans expect from a Connor McDavid–led team.
With the league entering the Christmas break, new projections have been released outlining Edmonton’s chances of returning to the Stanley Cup Final.
Oilers earn 7th-best odds to reach Stanley Cup Final
The Athletic recently released its 2025-26 projections, outlining each team’s expected point total, playoff odds, and chances of advancing to and winning the Stanley Cup.
According to the model, the Oilers rank seventh in 2025–26 NHL projections. Edmonton is given a 9% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Final and a 4% chance of winning the Cup, along with a strong 94% probability of making the playoffs. Their projected point total sits at 99.3. With a team rating of +31.9 and a goal differential of +23.6.
With Connor McDavid driving the Oilers, the ceiling remains high. He currently leads the NHL in scoring with 67 points, making Edmonton a dangerous team no matter the situation.
The projections follow back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances for Edmonton. Both of which ended in losses to the Florida Panthers. The Oilers fell in seven games during the 2023–24 season and again in six games during the 2024–25 season.
The model is built on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and playoffs. It accounts for each team’s projected strength, current health, and remaining schedule. Player evaluations are based on projected offensive and defensive ratings derived from recent seasons, with greater weight placed on more recent performance. Adjustments are made for usage and competition.
How the Oilers Stack Up
At the top of the projection list sit the Colorado Avalanche, who are given a 43 percent chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Final and a 28 percent chance of winning it all. Colorado has backed up those numbers on the ice, leading the league with a dominant 27-2-7 record.
Meanwhile, the two-time defending champion Florida Panthers are projected to be ninth. With a 7% chance of returning to the Final. And a 3% chance of capturing another Stanley Cup.
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Projections offer insight, not guarantees, and plenty can change as the season unfolds. Injuries, trades, and late-season surges often reshape the playoff picture. For now, the Oilers will enjoy the Christmas break before returning to action on Saturday against the Calgary Flames.
