The Ole Miss Rebels rode a one-loss season to the College Football Playoff, but there’s more work to do if they want to achieve the ultimate on the heels of their successful 2025 campaign and hoist a National Championship trophy.
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Ole Miss’ playoff scenarios and how they can walk away with a CFB National Championship on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Ole Miss’ Playoff Chances and Path to the College Football National Championship
- Chance to make CFP Semifinal: 50%
- Chance to make the National Championship: 21.9%
- Chance to win the National Championship: 9.9%
After former head coach Lane Kiffin unceremoniously defected to conference rival LSU ahead of the CFB Playoffs, the Rebels — led by Ferris State transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and new head coach Pete Golding — could have had a million excuses to be distracted heading into the College Football Playoff.
However, they quickly cast aside any concerns about outside influences impacting the on-field product, with a dominant and relentless performance against the Tulane Green Wave in the program’s first-ever appearance in the postseason tournament. A comfortable 41-10 saw the Rebels book a quarterfinal spot.
MORE: Georgia Playoff Scenarios: How the Bulldogs Make the College Football National Championship Game
In the quarterfinal, Ole Miss will face the No. 3-seeded Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl, whom they lost to 43-35 back in October. Despite that close head-to-head loss, the FPM still gives Ole Miss a 50% chance of pulling off the upset.
If Ole Miss prevails in the quarterfinal, it will take on the winner of the quarterfinal game involving the No. 2-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes. In their quarterfinal, Ohio State will face the No. 10-seeded Miami Hurricanes.
Among those teams, Ole Miss’ preference would be Miami, whom the FPM gives Ole Miss a 58% chance of beating. However, Ohio State is the favorite to make it through in that section. The FPM has Ole Miss winning 38.2% of the time against Ohio State and 50.4% of the time against Texas A&M.
Overall, the FPM gives the Rebels a 21.9% chance of reaching the National Championship Game in Miami and a 9.9% chance of winning the CFB National Championship.
In the National Championship Game, Ole Miss could face any team from the other side of the bracket: Indiana (1), Texas Tech (4), Oregon (5), Alabama (9), or James Madison (12). Of those opponents, the FPM has Ole Miss favored only against James Madison, though they have a 50-50 shot of beating Alabama.
