Fantasy football managers face tough choices this week with several wide receivers trending up or down in unpredictable ways. Matchups and team context are playing a bigger role than ever as playoff races tighten.
Some players are emerging as reliable options again, while others might be better left on the bench despite their names. The margin between winning and losing could come down to one well-timed lineup decision
Start ‘Em: Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (vs. CHI)
Step aside, Romeo Doubs, the real WR1 is back. Christian Watson has made an incredible recovery from his torn ACL to not just play this season, but reestablish himself as Jordan Love’s top target.
In the absence of Tucker Kraft, it’s been Watson as the clear main guy since ramping up his playing time the past few weeks.
Watson has caught at least four passes in three consecutive games. He’s seen 17 targets over his last two and has two games with 18+ fantasy points in his last three.
The Chicago Bears allow the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. While the Packers are likely to try to lean on Josh Jacobs, this is another week where Love might throw two touchdowns. One of them should go to Watson.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (vs. WAS)
Similar to Ashton Jeanty, Justin Jefferson is another example of how drafting a player is drafting his entire offensive situation. We know Jefferson is very good at football. That is not enough when his quarterback doesn’t belong in the NFL.
Jefferson had the worst game of his career last week, catching two passes for four yards. He has two touchdowns on the season and hasn’t topped 11.1 fantasy points in a month. He is no longer an every-week must-start player.
If you’ve watched a Minnesota Vikings game recently, you can see the frustration boiling. He knows how good he is, and he wants the ball. After last week’s disaster, I fully expect Kevin O’Connell to force-feed his alpha this week.
JJ McCarthy was getting in limited practices last week. He should clear the concussion protocol this week. While McCarthy has not resembled anything close to an NFL-caliber quarterback, he cannot possibly be worse than whatever Max Brosmer did last week.
If McCarthy does return, Jefferson has a chance this week against a Washington Commanders defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
In fact, Jefferson’s remaining schedule is very favorable. If he can get any semblance of decent quarterback play, fantasy managers who make the playoffs with Jefferson might be able to win because of him.
Sit ‘Em: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (at LAC)
DeVonta Smith was lucky to escape last week with 9.8 fantasy points. While he’s been more good than bad recently, it feels like a struggle every week for him to get anything going.
The Eagles’ offense is broken, and it is not about to get fixed overnight. A.J. Brown has complained his way into making sure he’s forced targets. In a low-volume Jalen Hurts offense, there’s rarely enough for both of them.
This week, the challenge will be even greater against a Chargers defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Perhaps it ends up being Brown who gets left out. But my guess is Hurts can only sustain the fantasy production of one receiver, and it won’t be Smith.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (at MIN)
Terry McLaurin overcame a pitch count and a very difficult matchup to post elite WR1 numbers last week against the Broncos. In his first game back since Week 8, McLaurin caught seven of 14 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. Naturally, fantasy managers are probably excited to use him again in Week 14.
To be clear, you probably can’t afford to bench McLaurin. But let’s put his performance in the proper context.
Marcus Mariota attempted 50 passes. Fifty. That’s almost two games’ worth of volume, largely due to the combination of having to catch up in the fourth quarter and the benefit of an extra period of football.
The Vikings are not about to make Mariota need to throw 50 times, nor should the Commanders want to.
Minnesota allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. McLaurin should play more and lead the Commanders in targets, but a more muted effort is to be expected.
