Week after week, fantasy football managers dig deep for clues that could shape their lineups and give them a winning edge. The latest news around the NFL hints at evolving storylines that could turn waiver wire pickups into league-winners.

As teams adjust their strategies and coaches make crucial decisions, fantasy football values shift in ways that aren’t always obvious. Stay tuned for updates that could influence your roster in unexpected ways.

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at GB)

I was wrong about this backfield, and there’s no point in being stubborn: Aaron Jones is the guy that Minnesota trusts and the one they are going to funnel their offense through in terms of this backfield.

He held a 9-1 touch edge over Jordan Mason in the first quarter last week, and I think he’s largely looked spry when available this season.

Like everyone in this offense, there are efficiency issues in the pass game (six catches on 12 targets over the past two weeks, a catch rate that is unacceptable for a running back, given where those targets come on the field). Still, the usage is there, and that’s enough to get him into the RB2 mix this time of year.

The Packers can be stingy on defense, but they are a below-average red-zone defense and have the fifth-lowest opponent aDOT this season, which isn’t surprising if the plan is to get the ball out quickly.

I don’t think Jones breaks the slate in this revenge game, but 15+ touches and some scoring equity are all we need to justify starting him in all formats.

Alvin Kamara | NO (vs ATL)

New Orleans operated from a position of power in their Week 10 win in Carolina, and that allowed Alvin Kamara to get his hands on the ball 25 times (115 yards).

It was good to see the 30-year-old handle that sort of work, and if they can stay competitive this week after the bye, there’s hope he can repeat it. But asking this roster to remain competitive is a lot.

This season, Kamara is nearly twice as likely to be stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage as he is to gain 10+ yards on a carry, and he’s gone four straight games without seeing more than three targets.

There might be some gas left in the tank (15+ yard repetition in three of his past five games, with the 26-yarder against the Panthers being his longest gain of the season). Still, without exceptional versatility or any real scoring equity (one score on 159 touches), the ceiling is underwhelming to say the least.

With four teams on a bye, you might be pressed into starting him, but I’d be looking for other options if at all possible.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (vs CLE)

I never played football at a high level and have never coached it.

That said, the play-action-centric approach for the Raiders last week was … a choice. We are three months into the season at this point, and the NFL is well aware that this offensive line can’t run block, so why would defenses sell out to stop the run in such a way that play-action opens up anything?

Some things, we will never know.

Ashton Jeanty finished Monday night with more targets than rush attempts, and while the usage in the passing game is nice (and the only reason you can justify starting him this week), the floor remains low because of the rushing limitations.

Week 11 was the second time this season that Jeanty averaged negative yards before contact, dropping his season average to 0.61. I think the talent is ther,e and we see it when he actually has room to operate, but that’s just not often enough.

Even as a great post-contact runner, he’s failed to gain yardage on an absurd 30.2% of his attempts this season, something that probably doesn’t change against the Browns this weekend, the second-best run defense by success rate.

A handful of targets is enough to get Jeanty to 10-12 PPR points most weeks, but there is little hope for a ceiling performance this week and, to be honest, at all moving forward.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (at ARI)

We were so close to getting Bhayshul Tuten extended run.

The Jags worked in him on their first drive and actually had twice as many carries as Travis Etienne in the first quarter.

Things were moving in the right direction so much so that he easily set a season high in snap share despite getting injured in the third quarter. Etienne took advantage of the clear role in the second half and finished with a solid game, but I don’t think it was a mistake for this coaching staff to give the rookie a real chance.

Of 33 RBs with 50+ carries in Weeks 5-10, Travis Etienne was 29.6% below expectations. That was the worst of the bunch, and the company he kept wasn’t exactly great

30. Rhamondre Stevenson: -20.1%

31. Alvin Kamara: -25.1%

32. Woody Marks: -27.3%

33. Etienne: -29.6%

The hopes of a late-season role flip seem to be over now, and we are just hoping that Tuten can get back on the field in a meaningful way sooner rather than later. He deserves to be rostered, given the interest this staff has shown in him, but I’m going to need visual proof of health before giving him a real look as a flex option in any format.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (at NO)

Bijan Robinson racked up 110 total yards and a touchdown in the first half last week against the Panthers, with the score being the type where if it happened in a video game, you’d chuck the controller across the room.

He was quiet in the second half, but 27 touches is pretty tough to argue with, and we could see a similar workload this weekend with Drake London sidelined.

All signs point to this being a competitive gam, and four straight RBs have cleared their season average in PPR points when facing the Saints. A shift to Kirk Cousins doesn’t impact how I view Atlanta’s RB1 in a major way, and if he’s a real threat to push 30 touches, I’m loading up on DFS shares.

Blake Corum | LAR (vs TB)

Blake Corum’s work is trending up, but this feels like more of a subtraction from Kyren Williams’ note than it does an actionable one around Corum himself.

The backup RB played 32% of the snaps last week, his third-highest of the season, and a second straight week of growth. In deeper leagues, I’m intrigued by his 17 red zone snaps over the past month, but asking him to get a cheap touchdown in an offense that has Williams and Davante Adams, not to mention Puka Nacua and the TE of the week, who always seems to get dangerous looks, is a lot.

There are only a handful of handcuff running backs, and Corum is on that list, but he’s not in the standalone bucket, and I don’t expect him to be.

Brashard Smith | KC (vs IND)

Brashard Smith is an interesting dynasty piece, but with him running nine routes on his 11 snaps last week, he’s basically a short-yardage receiver in an offense that is full of them already.

With just six carries over his past three games, the rookie is someone I think you could get away with dropping today if need be, and is certainly on the outs once we get to see that Isiah Pacheco is healthy.

As this season comes to a close, I find it far more likely that Kansas City will condense its touch distribution than expand it.

Smith is a name to keep in the back of your head for next season, but for 2025, you can move on.

Breece Hall | NYJ (at BAL)

I don’t know how you can feel great about Breece Hall in any negative game script situation, and I’m not sure how you can feel great about the Jets being in anything but negative game script situations moving forward.

Hall was fine as a runner on Thursday night against the best run defense in the league (14 carries for 58 yards), but this offense simply doesn’t threaten the red zone often enough for him to carry much scoring equity.

We know that Hall is a versatile player, but if you’re a great chef without a kitchen to cook in, does it matter?

Justin Fields can’t throw a stone into the ocean right now, and that’s limited Hall to seven receptions over his past five games. He’s an explosive talent that is going to project for 15-ish touches weekly, so you’re playing him, but I’m not excited about it and wouldn’t be tempted in any way to go this way for DFS purposes.

Tyrod Taylor is a marginal upgrade, but my general view of this offense doesn’t change in a major way with the Jets making this change.

Bucky Irving | TB (at LAR)

Bucky Irving hasn’t played since Week 4 with this shoulder injury, and while he was able to practice in a limited capacity last week, he remained sidelined.

This wouldn’t be an ideal spot to return, and I’m skeptical about his return to action, whenever it comes. We know that Rachaad White is more of a pass catcher than a true runner, and with Irving picking up just 3.3 yards per carry this season (71 carries), his path to returning RB1 value isn’t clear if he’s functioning at less than full strength.

Week 13 vs. Cardinals
Week 14 vs. Saints
Week 15 vs. Falcons (Thursday Night Football)
Week 16 at Panthers
Week 17 at Dolphins
Week 18 vs. Panthers

We saw Irving thrive down the stretch last season (four straight games with 80+ total yards and multiple receptions), and given that schedule, a similar run out this season is certainly within the range of outcomes.

Stay on top of the news. I believe that it’ll take at least one week for him to round into form, but with four teams on a bye (three of which have a weekly fantasy starter leading their backfield), you probably don’t have a legitimate pivot.

If Irving can take the field this week, manage your expectations and consider him more of a low-end RB2 than the top 15 option at the position, which I believe him to be the rest of the way.

Chase Brown | CIN (vs NE)

That’s now four straight games with Chase Brown in which he’s either caught 6+ passes or reached double-figure fantasy points with his rushing numbers alone.

There was probably too much damage done prior to Joe Flacco taking over this offense for Brown to fully make good on his ADP. Still, he’s certainly trending in a great direction, and his uptick in the passing game (over 8.5 PPR points scored via the reception in three straight) is what I like him to keep the good times rolling this week.

Brown led the Bengals in first-half receptions last week, and he has multiple receptions in every game this season. I don’t think you can count on that, but with Ja’Marr Chase suspended and the Patriots yet to allow a running back to pick up 60 yards on the ground, we could see usage that looks something like Week 9 against the Bears (11 carries for 37 yards, eight catches for 75 yards).

When this offense is functional, Brown is a versatile threat who can rip off chunk plays from anywhere. He was held without a red zone touch last week, and if that’s the case again this week, his upside is obviously limited.

I’m not too worried. This isn’t a bulletproof profile, but there are certainly more paths to production than to failure, and that’s all we can really ask for.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs CAR)

It’s a crazy world where we don’t know if Christian McCaffrey will hit 100 receptions or 1,000 receiving yards first this season, but that’s where we stand.

Rushing Profile

2023: 84.9% gain rate, 16.2% of carries gained 10+ yards
2024: 84% gain rate, 12% of carries gained 10+ yards
2025: 79.8% gain rate, 9.8% of carries gained 10+ yards

That would kill a traditional running back, but it’s not even denting the status of CMC. San Francisco is weaponizing their best player at a high level: 6+ targets in every game this season, 5+ catches in 10 of 11, and five touchdown receptions.

There’s nothing non-health-related that can stop McCaffrey, and I’m going to go ahead and assume that’s the case for the remainder of the season.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at SF)

At one point, the Panthers were stubborn in keeping Chuba Hubbard involved, but those days are long gone, and this offense isn’t one worth holding a handcuff to at this point in the fantasy season unless you are absolutely cruising.

The former starter has failed to clear five touches in back-to-back-to-back games and doesn’t have a 10-yard gain in four straight. I still think Hubbard is a professional-level running back. We don’t yet know what Carolina will do at the position next season (he has an out in his contract, but Rico Dowdle will be a UFA), and that’ll be a storyline to watch, but in the scope of 2025, this isn’t a player that needs to be rostered.

If your team is loaded and you have the luxury of simply holding direct handcuffs, I’m not cutting Hubbard for a boom/bust WR7, but most teams are in fight-tooth-and-nail situations, and a pure backup doesn’t aid those rosters.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs PIT)

I believe that you can largely tell what the team views as their strengths by what they show you early.

Week 10 First Quarter Snap Shares

Swift: 52.6%
Monangai: 47.4%

Week 11 First Quarter Snap Shares

Swift: 63.6%
Monangai: 18.2%

This, to me, looks like a running back coming back from an injury and working toward full strength. Swift has 19+ carries or multiple receptions every time he’s been on the field this season, a role that locks him into my top 20 weekly.

Would I like for this offense to be more consistent? Of course, I would, but with volume like that, the baseline is high enough at this point in the season to feel good about him being locked into your weekly lineup.

The schedule is brutal for the Bears coming home, but there is a trip to San Francisco in Week 17 if you can survive until then. Their success should keep Swift’s 15+ touch role safe for the remainder of the season.

Upcoming Schedule

Week 13 at Eagles
Week 14 at Packers
Week 15 vs. Browns
Week 16 vs. Packers

David Montgomery | DET (vs NYG)

David Montgomery is on the flex radar this week thanks to the matchup and the implied point total, but his profile is very much trending in the wrong direction.

This season, Monty has failed to clear a dozen carries seven times. That could be offset by a scoring role (one touchdown over his past five games) or versatility (no more than two catches in a game after pulling in four targets in Week 1), but neither is a part of the deal in this secondary role.

I understand if you’re in a tough spot and his 10-ish touches in a plus-matchup are enough to hit your lineup, but I’d caution against assuming that you have this part in your starting lineup locked in moving forward.

Derrick Henry | BAL (vs NYJ)

The final stat line for Derrick Henry looked the part (20 touches for 122 yards and a touchdown in Cleveland), but that may have been the most deceiving stat line of the week.

Henry failed to gain yardage on one-third of his targets and ran for -1 yard on his three carries inside the five-yard line.

He did cash in one of those goal-line carries and ripped off a 59-yard gain in the third quarter, however, and that got the counting numbers to where they needed to be. This is both the blessing and the curse of rostering Henry.

Thanks to the scoreboard, Henry was involved for four quarters, and as long as that happens, I’ll take my chances with him and go to battle. I like how this game projects, and given that Henry gained yardage on at least 80% of his carries in each of the three games prior, that gives him top-5 potential at the position.

This is a loaded main slate for DFS purposes, and that’s going to suppress the ownership around all of the star backs. I expect Henry to be a strong leverage play with many not hesitating to pay up a bit to get access to more versatile profiles, and a low-owned King as a big favorite is what dreams are made of.

Devin Singletary | NYG (at DET)

Devin Singletary has been out-snapped 82-57 by Tyrone Tracy over the past two weeks as this offense adjusts to life without Cam Skattebo, and while snaps are often tied to production, I don’t play in any points-per-snap leagues.

Heck, Tracy has a 38-28 touch edge over Singletary during those two games, but the veteran has handled 13 of the 15 red zone touches.

Yes, 86.7%.

I think we can rule out sheer volume as a means to an end when it comes to obtaining value in an offense like this, so give me the touches with the most projected points attached to them.

With Evan Neal on IR, I’m skeptical about the traditional run game in New York. That said, they experimented with a wildcat snap for Singletary on a fourth down last week, giving me hope that they can get a running back to return flex value weekly.

This matchup works more in Tracy’s favor, given the G-Men’s status as a big underdog.

Emanuel Wilson | GB (vs MIN)

All signs are pointing to Emanuel Wilson getting an extended run in this matchup, and the early returns on him producing with volume have been strong.

In his three games with 10+ touches this season, he’s picked up 217 yards, good for 5.9 yards per touch. That’s good, but this is more of a theoretical question: how does this offense choose to function without its centerpiece?

Either they try to fit a square peg into a round hole and ask Wilson to be Jacobs, or they put this important game in the hands of their franchise QB.

I lean the latter, and given that Wilson has seen just 13.3% of his career touches in the passing game, I’m not overly optimistic that he clears 15 touches against this aggressive Vikings defense that hasn’t allowed a running back to clear 11 PPR points in three straight games.

Wilson is very much worthy of a roster spot, and I’d rather flex him than Jordan Addison or Romeo Doubs if we are picking players in this range in this game. But I’d be careful in assuming too much from a career backup with under 200 career touches on his resume.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs IND)

Isiah Pacheco suffered an MCL sprain in Week 8 and has been unable to return since, showing few signs of being close.

With just two top-30 finishes this season, there’s no real urgency for fantasy managers in this situation. I like Pacheco and his running style as much as anyone, but until the Chiefs commit to him post-injury, I’m assuming this to be an even split with Kareem Hunt at best, with the valuable carries funneling to the veteran.

Asking Pacheco to play this week and again on Thanksgiving feels like a lot. A return next week in Dallas to take advantage of the mini-bye seems more likely, but again, playing Pacheco in his first game back isn’t something I’m looking to do.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule

Week 15 vs. Chargers
Week 16 at Titans
Week 17 vs. Broncos

Not friendly, but that Week 16 spot is appetizing, and the hope is that we have Pacheco sitting atop this depth chart by then.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs NYG)

Week 11 is a prime example of what makes Jahmyr Gibbs a Tier 1 running back.

The Lions had nothing going (nine points, under 25 minutes of possession, and more incompletions than rushing attempts), and Gibbs ended up with nearly 20 PPR points.

The script doesn’t dictate Gibbs’ production; Gibbs adjusts his production to the script. The 14 catches over his past four games are encouraging to see after a three-game stretch that saw him total five receptions.

The ceiling is elite, and we could see it on the fast track at home with a near 30-point implied total. We know that’s in his bag, but I’m more encouraged by the raising of his floor that he’s demonstrated over the past month.

Javonte Williams | DAL (vs PHI)

That’s back-to-back underwhelming performances from Javonte Williams, but I’m not worried in the slightest.

The lack of usage in the passing game bugs me (four catches over his past four games), but I don’t mind trading that off for 16.1 carries per game and loads of red zone work.

Red Zone Touch Leaderboard Through Week 10

1. Christian McCaffrey: 52

2. Jonathan Taylor: 51

T-3. Travis Etienne: 41

T-3. Jahmyr Gibbs: 41

5. Josh Jacobs: 40

6. Williams: 39

He’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season and showing no signs of wearing down. His efficient style on the ground has opened up the passing game, and that, in turn, allows the run game to stay effective.

Dak Prescott walks into Week 11 as the second-rated play-action passer in the leagu,e and that’s not possible if there isn’t a level of fear that comes with the fake.

Play-Action Prescott

101 attempts
83 completions
860 yards
12 TDs
0 INTs

Williams is deserving of an RB1 ranking this week, and he sits atop my RB list of players with that surname this week, even in a tough spot.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (at CHI)

A third-quarter ankle injury in Week 11 has Jaylen Warren’s Week 12 status up in the air for this picture-perfect matchup.

Regardless of who is under center, this system is as conservative as any in the league, and that’s resulted in him hauling in multiple passes in every game this season.

Kenneth Gainwell looked good last week, and that was the case prior to Warren leaving the game. I think it’s fair to pencil in more of a split this week, presuming health, but not a change in terms of the overall hierarchy.

Warren has six finishes this season as an RB2 or better, and he’s a great bet to increase that number this week if he’s as healthy as he suggested in the post-game. These are two of the six worst defenses in terms of yards allowed per game, giving this game a little more fantasy appeal than I think is being assumed across the industry.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (at KC)

Jonathan Taylor is RB1 this season, averaging 2.5 more PPR than RB2 in Christian McCaffrey. That difference alone is an interesting note, but what if we look at the expected points based on where their touches occur on the field?

Taylor: 273.9 PPR points with 181.3 expected
McCaffrey: 248.8 PPR points with 254 expected

How crazy is that?

Taylor has the top game at the position, three of the top-9, and five of the top-19. The Chiefs’ defense is great, and coming off a bye, but teams have had six years to figure out how to stop JT and have yet to do it.

If you want to argue that Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. NYG) is the better per-dollar DFS option, fine, maybe you’re right. But players at this level are largely matchup proof, and Taylor certainly fits that mold: zero concerns.

Jordan Mason | MIN (at GB)

I truly thought Jordan Mason had a chance to own this backfield and that the early-season injury to Aaron Jones would open that opportunity. But it’s clear the Vikings want the veteran presence at running back next to their developmental quarterback, thus relegating Mason to handcuff duties and nothing more.

Against the Bears last week, Jones was on the field for two-thirds of their offensive snaps, and Mason checked in at 16.7% (the fantasy Gods don’t care about C.J. Ham’s 27.8% snap share, but those were six routes that come off the plate of these two).

Mason was able to reach double-digit fantasy points on the back of a single drive. Minnesota’s first drive of the fourth quarter came on a short field that Mason quickly turned into 24 rushing yards and a score. But considering that he had just 19 rushing yards prior, he was effectively scripted out and simply cashed in on his one chance to do so.

Good for him, but not predictive.

Even if you think that this backfield trends closer to a committee with time, Jones is the preferred option in the pass game, and the Vikes are a near touchdown underdog. Mason is rosterable because depth at the position is tough to find, but he’s not on the flex radar this week in any format.

Josh Jacobs | GB (vs MIN)

Josh Jacobs was effective on his first seven carries over the weekend against the Giants (40 yards), but a knee injury removed him from the game, and he was never able to return.

Green Bay’s RB1 has yet to miss a game since being acquired and has missed a total of 10 games in his six-plus professional seasons. Given the nature of the playoff race in the NFC, the Packers don’t exactly have much room for error, and with the bye well behind them, they are very motivated to be aggressive here.

Emanuel Wilson (11-yard touchdown on Sunday after Jacobs departed) is the speculative add to make. The Packers play on Thanksgiving after this week, giving them a mini bye ahead of a favorable spot in Week 14 against the Bears at Lambeau.

The hope is that this isn’t a serious injury and that you’ll have your top-10 RB back before long. Wilson would serve as the lead back, but this offense would likely lean into Jordan Love more than ask the backup to assume the role Jacobs has filled.

Kareem Hunt | KC (vs IND)

Isiah Pacheco continues to battle this MCL sprain, and considering that it took the Chiefs two months to show any desire in featuring him, I think it’s more likely than not that Kareem Hunt is holding flexible value at a minimum for the remainder of the fantasy season.

When Pacheco was first injured, the prevailing thought was that Hunt would lead this backfield, but that Brashard Smith would assume some of the vacated work, thus capping the upside.

We can argue about the value of this backfield as a whole, but this isn’t a committee situation: Hunt was on the field for 82.3% of their offensive snaps in Denver last week.

Smith is an interesting player with versatility that feeds into this system, but it would appear Andy Reid is sticking with what he knows as this team tries to battle for a playoff spot.

The Colts are a bottom-10 defense in third-down conversion rate and red-zone touchdown percentage: Kansas City needs to establish balance, and this is a spot where they might be able to do so.

I’m OK with playing the other side of this offense in DFS as a contrarian build (Patrick Mahomes stacks profile as chalky) and think he’s a safe top 20 play in season-long formats.

Whenever we have proof that Pacheco is nearing full strength, we can reevaluate, but we seem to be multiple weeks away from that conversation.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (at CHI)

Jaylen Warren wanted it noted that he could have returned from the ankle injury last week, so for now, he sounds to be on the right side of questionable.

Kenneth Gainwell has shown out when given the chance, and while I think he needs Warren to be compromised (or out) to be a reasonable fantasy start, his usage last week wasn’t a mistake.

He caught an 11-yard touchdown on the first drive, his second red zone touch of the day. Warren is a solid back, but this offense is aware that it needs to control the clock to compete, and that opens the door for 30-ish RB touches if the game is tight.

The Aaron Rodgers (wrist) injury is lingering, though I’m not sure this conservative Arthur Smith offense looks much different schematically with Mason Rudolph under center. Gainwell is a low-end flex if Warren suits up, and if that’s not the case, I’d jump him up to my top 15 without hesitation against a Bears defense that has allowed 19+ PPR points to a running back four times this season.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at TEN)

Kenneth Walker has three games this season with a snap rate over 50%, and two of them have come in November, as Seattle considers a soft launch of him as their lead back as a path to a higher offensive ceiling.

In response, Walker scored, caught all of his targets, and finished with 111 yards against a stingy Rams defense. While toiling in a split, he had produced at least 20% under expectation in four straight games, but on Sunday, he was 40.9% better than what the average NFL back would have done with his touch diet.

Tiny sample, yes, but we have to walk before we can run, and Week 11 was a positive development.

While Charlie Brown has tried to kick this football before, this feels a bit different. The Seahawks view themselves as legit contenders, and if they are going to function at the peak of their potential, it’s on the back of Walker.

I don’t think they are yet ready to commit in a featured way, but the trends point to him getting the first chance to shine in this plus-matchup, and an explosive Week 12 could swing things in a major way for the remainder of the season.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule

Week 15 vs. Colts
Week 16 vs. Rams (we just saw Walker flex his upside against them)
Week 17 at Panthers

Kyle Monangai | CHI (vs PIT)

This backfield is D’Andre Swift’s, but Kyle Monangai isn’t going away (37% snap share with 13 touches on Sunday).

The backup got the first carry of Chicago’s second drive last week and got consecutive carries inside of the Minnesota 10 in the first half, the second of which was a one-yard score. The Bears are clearly interested in keeping him involved, even if it’s more to keep Swift near full strength.

From a profile perspective, last week wasn’t great. He ran 12 times for 23 yards and failed to cross the line of scrimmage five times. He profiles as more of a banger to Swift’s versatile skill set … sound familiar?

Roschon Johnson scored six goal-line touchdowns in that role last season, never owning much efficiency in the process. Monangai is never going to rank as a strong flex option because of my low touch and per-touch projection, but a single plunge can make him worthy of flexing, and that role holds weight this time of year.

Kyren Williams | LAR (vs TB)

With a rushing score in three straight games, Kyren Williams is rounding into the best version of himself at the optimal time.

His 34-yard gain last week against the Seahawks was his longest rush of the season, and if we get a hint of explosive potential, we are talking about a safe top-10 back the rest of the way.

Even if that doesn’t stick, Williams has 38 red zone touches this season (six games with at least four touches inside the opposition’s 20). His pre- and post-contact numbers are better this season than last, so while the Blake Corum fans will mention his recent usage, I wouldn’t sweat it in a major way.

The Bucs are the NFL’s best rush rate in terms of success rate against the running back position, and that’s why Williams is on the outside looking in at my top 10 for this singular week. However, you’re still playing him and understanding that better days are ahead as the season nears its conclusion.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (at LV)

Volume hasn’t been an issue all season for Quinshon Judkins, but the limitations of his surrounding environment are beginning to pick away at his value.

In Weeks 6-11, he has one top 25 finish at the position. In theory, his workload (17+ carries in three of his past four games) is enough to project him as a top 20 RB when in a good spot like this. I’m sticking with that theory this week, though I am nervous.

Judkins has picked up less than half a yard before contact in three of his past four games, and the loaded box rate is getting out of control (76.5% against the Ravens last weekend). The Raiders aren’t a great defense, but you either run at Maxx Crosby or you run at a high quantity of defenders.

Neither of those situations is great, and the rushing equity drops even further if you assume essentially no respect is being shown to this passing game.

I’d rather have volume and chase touchdowns than have touchdown potential and chase volume (David Montgomery profile). Judkins is a player that you’re starting, even if you’re not overly excited about it.

Rachaad White | TB (at LAR)

Rachaad White can’t run the ball, and that’s an issue when “running back” is your profession.

For his career, he averages just 3.8 yards per carry and is more than twice as likely to get stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage as he is to pick up 10+ yards. His 3.9 yards per carry this season show no signs of growth, and after Sean Tucker’s explosive effort against the Bills, his carry equity is low.

That said, if Bucky Irving misses another game, White projects as a flex piece in a game where we expect the Bucs to be playing from behind. He’s hauled in 28-of-32 targets this season, and given the offensive injuries that Baker Mayfield is navigating, I have no issue in penciling him in for a handful of targets.

I don’t think it’ll be a work of art, but five catches and 50 total yards is a low bar to clear and really all he needs to be in the PPR flex mix.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at CIN)

Will the toothpaste be put back in the tube?

Rhamondre Stevenson has missed three straight games with this toe injury. But he’s been able to practice in a limited capacity, and the team is operating with cautious optimism regarding his status for this weekend.

But is he still the lead running back in New England?

Mike Vrabel was stubborn in his own right for the first two months of this season. Still, after seeing TreVeyon Henderson flash some of his game-breaking talent (two 55+ yard TD runs in Week 10 against the Bucs being the tip of the iceberg), this is a fluid situation at best.

Stevenson has averaged under 2.5 yards per carry in three of his past four games and hasn’t earned more than two targets in a game since September. At best, I think we are looking at a committee situation with Henderson holding the edge in the passing game.

Now, this is as good a spot as you could ask for, something that gives me confidence in ranking both as a top 30 option at the position (provided health). That said, I’m skeptical that Stevenson is a plus-asset before New England goes on their bye in Week 14.

After missing extended time, penciling in a ramp-up is reasonable. Coming out of the bye, it seems likely that both of these backs will be at full strength, and that’s when we are going to have to make a real decision. We will deal with that situation when we get there. Still, two matchups against potent offenses immediately after the break (vs. BUF, at BAL) have me leaning very much toward Henderson moving forward.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (at SF)

This season, there have been seven occurrences in which a running back carried the rock 17 times and saw multiple targets in three straight games:

Jonathan Taylor (Weeks 1-6)
Christian McCaffrey (Weeks 3-7)
Saquon Barkley (Weeks 1-4)
Kyren Williams (Weeks 5-7)
Quinshon Judkins (Weeks 3-5)
Dowdle (Weeks 5-7)
Dowdle (Current)

Not a typo.

Dowdle’s name is on that list twice, as this offense has leaned on him as a bellcow at a high level since he proved himself in Chuba Hubbard’s absence. The next lead back to fail to reach his season average in PPR points against the 49ers will be the first this season, thus fueling my top-10 ranking of Dowdle.

I don’t think he’s a real threat to lead the position in scoring, but the top of Tier 2 is certainly within reason. Could he make for a contrarian DFS captain in a game where Christian McCaffrey is going to be the chalk choice (a big Dowdle game could mean a low possession game and thus a limiting of opportunities for CMC)?

Saquon Barkley | PHI (at DAL)

Saquon Barkley was RB11 in Week 5, and he has just one weekly finish better than RB20 since.

This season obviously hasn’t gone according to plan for those who spent a first-round pick on him this summer (gain rate down from 82.9% to 74.3%), but 48 carries over the past two weeks is enough to keep me optimistic in season-long and interested in DFS.

The Cowboys are coming in on a short week, and the Eagles are in a battle with the entire NFC West for the NFC’s top seed. If you have a competitive team with Barkley on it, I think you’ve survived the worst.

They say it’s not how you start, but how you finish, a mantra that could ring true as championships are handed out this winter.

Sean Tucker | TB (at LAR)

Sean Tucker on the ground and Rachaad White through the air make for a heck of a Frankenstein backfield in the absence of Bucky Irving, and should the starter miss another game, I think those roles are pretty clear.

My projection would be essentially split. Tucker gets the edge in carry count and TD equity, but with White handling the bulk of the routes, both would come in around 10-12 PPR points in a neutral matchup, but this isn’t that.

Rams Defensive Rankings

Points Per Game: 2nd
Red Zone TD%: 2nd
PPR Points Allowed To RBs: 3rd
Yards Per Play: 7th

I think this script works well away from the traditional run game, which puts White in a position to pile up cheap points quicker than Tucker.

I’m resisting the urge to lock him in after the big week in a great matchup.

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs SEA)

Tony Pollard hasn’t had a dozen carries in a game since Week 5, and that was also the date of his last touchdown.

The Titans are a hot mess on the offensive side of the ball, and with them motivated to get a read on Tyjae Spears, why would we project any role growth for Pollard moving forward?

We are looking at a player with a 10-ish carry and 3-ish target projection for a team that is averaging 1.2 fewer points than any other offense in the league. That’s not a top 30 profile for me, and there are a handful of offenses (Detroit, Seattle, and Chicago) that have two RBs ranked above Pollard for me this week.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at ARI)

Everything was clicking for the Jags’ run game last weekend against the Chargers as part of a 35-6 run.

It was great to see, but it’s unlikely we’ll see a game script play out like that again. I’m not going to say that last week lowered Travis Etienne in my rest of season ranks, but it was trending in that direction until Bhyashul Tuten got dinged up.

Jacksonville got both of its running backs involved early last week, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this franchise wanted to get more looks at the rookie down the stretch of this season.

That said, with him nursing the ankle injury, you can feel good about Etienne as an RB2. He has 18+ touches in all three games this month, and while he hasn’t been efficient as a pass catcher, 33 targets is enough usage for us to feel good about him in any script.

Since Week 5, the Cardinals have been the sixth-worst red zone defense in the league, giving him one more path to reaching double figures in PPR points, and are worthy of a spot in your starting lineup.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (at CIN)

The breakout is upon us, and this looks a lot like 2024 Bucky Irving in a season-winning profile sort of way.

Against the undermanned Jets on Thursday night, the rookie turned his 24 touches into 93 yards and three scores (two rushing and one receiving). Henderson entered the league with plus-grades in his splash play ability, making it ironic that his best game of this season came in a contest in which he didn’t have a single touch gain more than 10 yards.

We obviously saw that in Week 10 in Tampa Bay, and the sky is truly the limit if he can combine the volume with the explosion.

Rhamondre Stevenson is going to come back sooner than later, and that adds some uncertainty to this situation, but does it matter?

If we are looking at 25-30 touches across the RB position in this Drake Maye offense, even a 50/50 split might be enough to get Henderson into the weekly RB2 discussion with the upside for far more.

That’s my tentative expectation until proven otherwise, and in the scope of Week 12, should Stevenson return, I don’t care. The Bengals have been a bottom-5 pre-contact run defense all season long, and with the projected script very much slanted in favor of New England, you’re starting Henderson (and Stevenson for that matter).

You were patient, and if you’ve managed to survive, get ready to be rewarded!

Trey Benson | ARI (vs JAX)

Trey Benson (arthroscopic surgery on his meniscus) was eligible to return from injured reserve two weeks ago and, should he trend in that direction (initial timetable: 4-6 weeks), he profiles as the leader of this backfield.

Benson last played in Weeks 3-4, and he was one of seven backs with at least four targets and 35 rushing yards in both of those weeks. The others:

Jonathan Taylor
Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey
Bijan Robinson
Breece Hall
Omarion Hampton

Bam Knight is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season, and Emari Demercado has a high ankle sprain. I’m confident that this is Benson’s gig when he returns, so stay on top of the news (day-to-day has been the sentiment all week): he’s a flexible player the moment he is ruled active.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs SEA)

There are three running backs with 3+ catches in each of their past five games: Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, and Tyjae Spears.

No big deal, just fantasy royalty and a man lost in the Tennessee abyss.

If we got any signs of Tony Pollard being phased out, I’d be the first to jump on Spears as a viable PPR flex, especially in a script that figures to lean into the pass in short order, but we don’t, so I can’t.

Spears hasn’t cleared 12 touches in a game this season and has actually seen his involvement decline in consecutive games. I think there’s a fantasy asset in this profile, but until we get proof that the Titans agree, there’s not much you can do about it.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at NO)

For the fifth time this season, Tyler Allgeier punched in a touchdown from six yards or closer, but it is worth noting that the other four Atlanta RB red zone touches went to Bijan Robinson in the overtime loss to the Panthers.

Nothing has changed.

Allgeier is a bail-out flex play if you’re really stuck, but with no more than six touches in four of his past five games, you really are just chasing a short-range score.

If there’s a week to do it, it’s in a competitive script like this where the offense is adjusting to Kirk Cousins, but I still think you’re looking at single-digit touches, and that makes him a thin option (my RB36).

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at DET)

Tyrone Tracy has been fine in the two games post-Skattebo injury, but he hasn’t owned this backfield in the way that we had hoped.

In Week 10 against the Bears, he ran 14 times for 71 yards, but Devin Singletary out-scored him as a pass catcher, 8.3 PPR points to 1.0.

In Week 11, Tracy held the edge in pass game production, but Singletary got the valuable carries and punched in a pair of touchdowns.

I don’t think either running back in this system has top 10 upside, and if New York is wedged into a one-dimensional script, the floor becomes an issue.

Of course, Tracy’s resume as a former receiver looms, and that has me slightly favoring him in PPR formats this week. In a perfect world, you’re not relying too heavily on either back (both sit outside my top 25 this week) and waiting for one to work while the other is away in terms of touch projection.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at TEN)

This committee role is slowly slipping away from Zach Charbonnet, and his 3.3 yards per carry aren’t exactly giving the Seahawks a reason to keep beating their head against the wall.

He’s been held under a 45% snap share three times this season, and they’ve all come over the past three games. Over that stretch, he’s still touching the ball 12 times per game, but with no real versatility or efficiency to speak of, you’re playing the dangerous game of touchdown or bust.

Kenneth Walker III hasn’t exactly seized this role, but he carries more per carry upside and seems to be one explosive effort away from putting Charbonnet in the rearview. This is a great matchup for Seattle, which could run the ball 35 times, making both of its running backs playable. But you need to be aware of this backfield’s trajectory as you piece together your postseason roster.

Soppe’s Fantasy RB Start-Sit Week 12 Players Include Javonte Williams, Kenneth Walker III, TreVeyon Henderson, and Others