Although the New England Patriots have not yet clinched the division, barring a historic collapse, they will secure a postseason spot.
New England finds itself in a great position eleven weeks into the season. They still have their bye week left and three divisional games on their slate. The team is poised to finish its season on a strong note.
What do PFSN Metrics Show about New England’s Odds?
As of now, according to PFSN playoff metrics, the Patriots have a 98.6% chance of clinching a playoff spot. PFSN projects them to finish with an average of 12.4 wins. If the Patriots want to escape the first round and earn a bye, something they have not done since 2018, they will need to keep their win streak alive. Currently, they have only a 34.1% percent chance to clinch a first-round bye.
Heading into Week 12, the Patriots’ most significant competition is the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos. The Colts did not play in Week 11 due to their bye week. The Broncos will have their bye week in Week 12. What helps the Patriots is that they only have two games left against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, the Colts still have several difficult matchups left, including the Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers.
AFC Tiebreaker Still Matters
When it comes to the first seed in the AFC, the top two tiebreakers are head-to-head record, followed by conference record. Denver holds the top seed only because the Broncos are 6-2 against AFC opponents. The Patriots are 5-2.
For New England, they have a 1.5-point game lead over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. After a dominant Week 5 Sunday Night Football win, they own the tiebreaker over Buffalo. The Bills will get their rematch in Week 15. That game will have massive implications for the division.
Something to keep an eye on is that the Patriots close the season with two favorable matchups. They play Week 16 against the Jets and Week 17 against the Dolphins. Even if New England drops contests against the Bills or Ravens, their playoff push remains very realistic.
Looking Ahead to Week Twelve in Cincinnati
The Patriots will next face the Bengals in Week 12 when they travel to Cincinnati. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET.
