Two weeks and a raft of season-defining results after the initial reveal, the third set of College Football Playoff rankings was released to the public on Tuesday night. Taking the thoughts of the selection committee and sprinkling them with a heavy dose of the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we’ve predicted how the entire postseason bracket would shake out.
College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions | First Round
- No. 12 Tulane Green Wave vs. No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders
- No. 11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 7 Oregon Ducks
- No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners
After the South Florida Bulls lost to the Navy Midshipmen in Week 12, it was the turn of the Tulane Green Wave to enter the College Football Playoff rankings ahead of Week 13. With no sign of the James Madison Dukes or any other Group of Five team, it seems like the selection committee will view Jon Sumrall’s team as the best team outside the Power Four.
Although the Miami Hurricanes were the highest-ranked ACC team, our College Football Playoff bracket projections slide the most likely team to win the conference — the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets — into the postseason tournament. The Hurricanes only have a 3.1% chance of winning the ACC, according to the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Oregon
- Orange Bowl: Â No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 5 Texas TechÂ
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
The PFSN FPM gives Texas Tech a 91.1% chance of beating Tulane in Lubbock, setting up a quarterfinal matchup with the No. 4-ranked Georgia Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is viewed as an 8.5-point favorite over Georgia Tech if the game were to be played in Oxford. Time will tell if Lane Kiffin remains head coach of the Rebels when they face the Aggies in the quarterfinal.
Elsewhere, if Oregon were to have the home advantage, that could be enough to see them defeat Alabama (the Ducks have a 52.5% chance of winning, according to PFSN FPM), setting up a rematch of their regular-season clash against the No. 2-ranked Hoosiers. Finally, Notre Dame is given a 1.5-point advantage on the road at Oklahoma, setting up a rematch of the 2025 College Football National Championship Game in the Rose Bowl.
College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions | Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Kirby Smart flexed his might against the Texas Longhorns in Week 12, and it would be a fool to bet against the Bulldogs making it as far as the semifinal, as they do in our College Football Playoff bracket projection. However, the PFSN FPM only gives Georgia a 33.6% chance of beating the Buckeyes, even if they do end up playing in a de facto home game in the Peach Bowl.
Indiana vs. Texas A&M has been a regular semifinal matchup in our college football bowl projections, an almost inconceivable proposition ahead of the season that now would produce an incredible contest between two similar teams with terrifying defenses and quarterbacks at the sharp end of the Heisman Trophy race. Curt Cignetti’s team would be a 3.5-point favorite.
College Football Playoff Bracket | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana
Ohio State and Indiana avoided each other in the regular season, but they’re on a collision course for the Big Ten Championship Game. With the selection committee stating that a close-fought game shouldn’t penalize the loser in the rankings, there is a legitimate chance that they remain No. 1 and No. 2 throughout the postseason, setting up a title game rematch.
The PFSN FPM makes the Buckeyes a slender 1.5-point favorite on neutral territory, providing the closest College Football Playoff National Championship Game that we’ve seen in recent years.
