The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Carolina Panthers players heading into their matchup with the New Orleans Saints to help you craft a winning lineup.
Bryce Young, QB
The Panthers don’t want Bryce Young to carry the fate of their week in his hands, and that should be all you need to know.
This is a team that prefers to shorten every game and run the ball to set up the run.
Young has reached 200 passing yards just once this season, and yet, they’ve won each of their past four starts.
I don’t think the team’s success is sticky, but I’m also not sold that the flipping of game scripts puts Young anywhere near the QB1 radar. The rushing numbers have evaporated after an encouraging Week 1, and the decision-making is still below average (one end zone interception last week, and he wasn’t far from a second).
This should be a close game, and those are the spots where Young projects poorly, even by his already low standards.
Chuba Hubbard, RB
I don’t know if we are yet in the droppable stage of disappointment, but we’re not far from it.
The Panthers displayed patience with Chuba Hubbard following the injury, but the Rico Dowdle run hasn’t slowed, and that has led this coaching staff to suggest that the pivot was coming.
And it did!
Hubbard was on the field for just 20.4% of Carolina’s offensive snaps in the upset win over the Packers, netting five touches to 27 for Dowdle.
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At best, you’re holding a handcuff on a run-centric offense, but are you really holding a player for their contingent value only on an offense like this?
Long-term, no. For another week or two, you can justify it with bye weeks still very much in play. But if things don’t change in a meaningful way, this is exactly the type of profile that you cut as December approaches in an effort to craft an optimal lineup for your postseason.
Rico Dowdle, RB
“We cannot ignore the fact that Rico has been exceptional … love the tempo and violence that he’s running with.”
That was Dava Canales ahead of Week 9, and he put his words into action.
Rico Dowdle fueled the upset win in Lambeau with 130 yards and two scores on 25 carries, playing 74.1% of the snaps while Chuba Hubbard (20.4% snap share with five touches) was relegated to backup duties.
With an outright win as nearly a two-touchdown underdog, it seems more likely that Canales leans even more into this bellcow structure than it works back towards a committee.
Dowdle has had at least 17 carries in four of his past five games, and in those contests, he’s racked up 6.3 yards per carry. Extending that level of efficiency isn’t wise, but if he’s blending even average per-carry numbers with high-end volume, he’s a lineup lock that could easily finish as a top 12 producer at the position.
In five of their past seven games, the Saints have allowed a single RB to clear 17 PPR points. Dowdle is very much in position to extend that run, and now he knows that he can’t double-hip thrust on a touchdown celebration.
Knowledge is power.
Jalen Coker, WR
Jalen Coker has essentially been splitting the WR2 duties in this offense with Xavier Legette, and that removes all interest from his profile.
He was on the field for two-thirds of Panther snaps last week against the Packers, and that strong rate landed him one single target.
If this team can stay competitive, they are running the ball at a high rate; if not, Young’s passing volume is sporadic.
There’s not really a script that works into Coker’s favor given the structure of this offense, and that means he’s nothing more than a waiver wire option in year-long leagues, a DFS punt among punts at best.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR
It seems like, every year, there are a few players that flash on the field, but less so in the box score.
Tetairoa McMillan certainly qualifies.
The rookie is a pro-level target earner, but he’s playing in an underwhelming offense, and that’s why, despite the volume of looks, he’s been held under 50 receiving yards in three of his past four and has scored in only one game this year.
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He could have scored last week in Lambeau, but Bryce Young delivered a high target with some weird spin on it, and he couldn’t convert. This is the first of two New Orleans matchups coming up, spots where the extra attention from the defense may not be too preventive.
I’m starting McMillan with confidence in this matchup: I’ll go back to doing the “not all targets are created equal” thing next week against the Falcons, but in this spot, his 8-10 target projection comes with top-24 fantasy production attached to it.
Xavier Legette, WR
There was always going to be a limited runway for any WR2 in this offense to earn enough looks to be even remotely viable, and with Jalen Coker now back, that ship has sailed.
Over the past two weeks, Xavier Legette has more routes than yards, and while he does get scoring chances (seven end zone targets), there simply isn’t enough scoring equity attached to this Bryce Young-led unit.
If you’re backed into a corner and chasing a touchdown, I’d rather take a thin flier on a better offense than a reasonably involved player on this Panthers team.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE
The Panthers won on Sunday and are shockingly in the playoff mix, but that doesn’t mean their passing game is clicking.
It’s not.
And even if it doesn’t improve, there’s no proof that it’ll be via the tight end position. Last week, the trio of Tommy Tremble/Ja’Tavion Sanders/Mitchell Evans combined for 78 offensive snaps, but ran just 23 routes and two targets.
There are a lot of TEs in this range and almost all of them play for an offense I trust more. This feels like as good a spot as you’ll get for the Panthers, and while that’s true, it simply means that they are likely to run the ball even more than normal.
I’d go as low as the Steelers’ trio of tight ends in the ranks over Sanders. Heck, if you’re truly stuck, Taysom Hill’s goofy role makes more sense than the risk profile that Sanders currently has access to.
