The second game of the Week 7 Monday Night Football double header sees the 4-2 Seattle Seahawks host the 2-3 Houston Texans. It may be early in the season, but the value of this game in terms of what it might mean in the playoff picture later in the year should not be underestimated.
Using the PFSN NFL Football Playoff Meter (FPM), let’s look at what a win or a loss in Week 7 could mean for both teams.
The PFSN FPM system uses our proprietary metrics to rank all 32 teams and uses that data to simulate the remainder of the season 100,000 times. From there, we can provide the percentage chance of several outcomes, including teams making the playoffs, winning their division, or even their odds of finishing the season with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Houston Texans Slow Start Has Left Their Backs to the Wall
The Houston Texans have dug themselves into a hole in 2025. Starting 0-3, they have fought back to 2-3 with convincing wins over the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens. However, the fast start of the Indianapolis Colts (6-1) means that the Texans are already three games behind their division rivals.
That leaves the Texans winning the division in just 3.6% of our simulations entering Monday Night Football. The trouble is that even with a win, they would still be 2.5 games behind the Colts, meaning they would likely need to sweep Indianapolis in head-to-head play while also making sure they match them win for win the rest of the season.
For that reason, even with a win, our simulations have the Texans winning the division just over 5% of the time. With a loss, then the Texans would be 3.5 games behind, so would need to sweep, win the game in hand from the bye week, and win a game more than the Colts in the other eitht games they both play. The difficulty of that task means that with a loss tonight, the Texans odds of winning the division drop to around 2.5%.
Things are a little more positive in terms of the Wild Card. The Texans are just two games back on the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars, who currently hold the sixth and seventh seeds. With a win tonight, that gap closes to 0.5 games and if the Texans win the game in hand on those teams, they would be level with them on record and we would need to start looking to tiebreakers.
With a win in Seattle, the Texans playoff chances would jump from 27.5% to above 35%, while a loss would still leave them with a better than one in five chance of making the playoffs (slightly over 20% of simulations).
Seattle Seahawks Look to Keep up with the Rams and 49ers
For the Seattle Seahawks, this game is not a must-win right now, but in an ultra competitive NFC West, and NFC conference, it has that feeling. At 4-2 the Seahawks are currently the sixth seed, but would drop outside the playoff spots with a loss, regardless of what happens in Detroit. They would also be a game behind both the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers for the division, having already lost to the 49ers at home.
The Seahawks enter Monday night winning the division in 22.5% of simulations, and the swing is only around 5-6% either way with a win or a loss. However, from a mentality standpoint, losing to a below .500 team when you are in a tight division race and one-game behind one of your main rivals in head-to-head already is tricky.
In terms of the playoffs, a win would see the Seahawks put a buffer between themselves and the chasing pack, giving them some margin for error. With a win against the Texans, the Seahawks would have a >65% chance of making the playoffs. Even with a loss, those numbers are still around 50%, so things would still be looking positive in the North West.
