The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Baker Mayfield, QB
We give Matthew Stafford the title of “WR King Maker,” and he’s earned it. He’s got the Calvin Johnson seasons in his back pocket, along with the Cooper Kupp historic campaign, and is now leading the Puka Nacua march to top those marks.
But I’m not sure that Baker Mayfield is that far behind. With him averaging 28.8 rushing yards per game in addition to elevating the talent around him, what’s not to like? Tampa Bay’s lightning rod has yet to finish worse than QB13 this season and is anything but scared to exploit his advantages.
The primary advantage these days is, of course, rookie Emeka Egbuka. Mayfield is keenly aware that opponents are terrified of him down the field, and until they prove they have an answer, I fully expect him to continue to pick at that scab.
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For the season, 44.7% of his throws to Egbuka have traveled 15-plus yards in the air, a massive spike from his rate to the rest of his teammates (21.1%), and I’d say it’s working.
He faces a 49ers defense this season that has allowed 21-plus fantasy points to a QB in each of their past two road games (big bad Spencer Rattler back in Week 2 and the aforementioned Stafford last Thursday night) and ranks 23rd in pressure rate.
I doubt he’s as efficient as he was in Sunday’s last-second win over the Seahawks (29-of-33, 11.5 yards per pass), but 65% complete with multiple touchdowns and 25-35 rushing yards?
That’s what he gives us weekly, and I’m confident he gives us low-end QB1 numbers in a very interesting matchup that only gets more favorable if San Francisco gets some of their offensive firepower back.
Bucky Irving, RB
News broke in the middle of last week that Bucky Irving’s foot sprain would cost him a game, maybe two at most. Over the weekend, however, we heard about a shoulder injury that wasn’t initially reported and is considered to be the more serious of the ailments, carrying with it a multi-week recovery.
We are talking about one of the more promising young players in the game, and that, along with the limited expectations competition-wise in the NFC South, could result in a cautious approach. Tampa Bay hosts San Francisco next week before consecutive road games (Lions and Saints) ahead of their Week 9 bye. Could we be looking at zero snaps in October?
Regardless of when he returns, Irving is a lineup lock across the board. He was a top 15 producer in each of the first weeks, a nice accomplishment when you consider that he’s yet to hit a home run in the ground game (longest carry: 16 yards).
Unless reports indicate otherwise, I will assume that Irving will return to his bellcow role when cleared medically (Weeks 1-4: 73.8% of RB touches) and be ready to carry your team when it matters most.
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Week 16 at Panthers
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Week 17 at Dolphins
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Week 18 vs. Panthers
Rachaad White, RB
We kind of know what Rachaad White is at this point, don’t we? Through 55 career games, the 26-year-old is averaging 3.8 yards per carry while hauling in 89.4% of his targets.
He’s not a current-day Theo Riddick because he’s had moments where he’s been trusted with high levels of volume on the ground, but in terms of a strengths and weaknesses profile, it’s a similar look.
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White was the lead back on Sunday in Bucky Irving’s absence (shoulder) and will be again this week. That role, paired with his savvy in the passing game, makes him a starter in most formats, but understand that the 14 carries for 41 yards from last week isn’t exactly an outlier.
If he can cash in the short carries, there is low-end RB1 potential to chase. The floor is enough to operate with confidence, especially after a week in this situation where Sean Tucker wasn’t a major factor.
I don’t think White has much of a chance to take work off of Irving’s plate long-term, but as long as the shoulder is bothering the starter, you’ve got a weekly asset on your hands, especially in PPR formats.
Sean Tucker, RB
There was some speculation that the Buccaneers would opt for a committee to replace Irving, and that Sean Tucker’s hard-nosed running style could be a sneaky source of value.
After one week, I think we can safely say that Tampa Bay is content with White handling the majority of the work, thus making Tucker a player that can be rostered in deeper formats, but doesn’t need to be prioritized. The third-year man out of Syracuse played just 20.7% of the snaps in Seattle last week and saw his six touches net a total of -1 yard.
If Tucker is going to see his role increase, it would likely be the result of a one-sided game in favor of the Bucs, and that’s not how I see this game playing out. White is the superior player in the passing game, and until he gives the team a reason to pivot, he should again be featured in what amounts to the Irving role, but with less upside.
Chris Godwin, WR
We all saw the 10 targets earned by Chris Godwin in his season debut against the Eagles and were impressed, but maybe we were a little ahead of ourselves.
The veteran receiver, coming off a devastating ankle injury, earned just four looks in Sunday’s 38-35 win in Seattle, and with Emeka Egbuka dominating down the field, Godwin’s aDOT was just 2.8 yards (Week 4: 15.1).
That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but if there’s one part of his game that figures to come back slowest, it’s the sudden cuts, something he needs access to in a big way to make it look like that matters.
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Even without much in the way of production, if you told me that, entering Week 6, we’d have two games from Godwin where his snap share was north of 75%, I’d be thrilled. He’s not a top 30 receiver for me this week and won’t be until we see some level of explosion from him.
I still fear what happens to his target share when Mike Evans (hamstring) returns, but the end-of-season schedule is enticing enough that I’m never going to consider moving on from him (both Panther games, along with matchups against the Saints, Falcons, and Dolphins over the final five weeks of this regular season).
Emeka Egbuka, WR
Am I missing something? What exactly is it that Egbuka can’t do? He’s averaging a touchdown per game, has a 30-plus yard grab in four of five games, and looks next to unguardable. And no, not “unguardable for a soon-to-be 23-year-old.” Unguardable by the standards of anyone in this league.
Evans has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury, and in those contests, Egbuka has racked up 286 air yards (first three games: 251). On Sunday, he joined Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, and Chase as the only active pass catchers to score 20-plus PPR points in three of their first five career games.
The return of Evans sounds close-ish, but is that going to stop Egbuka from gaining separation at every level? I don’t think so. Evans’ role is TBD, and we will see how many targets are left for Chris Godwin to earn, but I’m having a near-impossible time seeing the Bucs take food off the plate of their explosive rookie.
Mike Evans, WR
Mike Evans suffered what Todd Bowles labeled as a “low-grade” hamstring injury, and while that sounds good, let’s not forget that this is a 32-year-old receiver who is in the process of seeing Emeka Egbuka replace him.
Obviously, not all hope is lost. Evans still has plenty of juice (the five-yard TD last week was the scoring zone slant that we’ve seen work for a decade with him) and when at full strength, he stands to slide into the back-end of my WR2 rankings.
There are some instances where a productive player goes down with an injury and I’ll encourage you to buy on a discount.
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Opportunities like this present themselves all the time as a fantasy manager is holding a distressed asset because of their standing in your league and is looking, for lack of a better way to say it, to make a bad deal. To take pennies now for a dollar in the future. This isn’t that.
Evans missed three games a season ago, and these soft tissue injuries always come with aggravation risk. We haven’t seen the future Hall of Famer reach 60 receiving yards in a game this season, and I’m not sure that changes in a meaningful way when he returns to the field.
Assuming he sits this week, you’ll be able to free up a roster spot by using your IR, and that’s fine. Just be careful in assuming that you’re getting a difference-maker when he returns to your lineup.
Cade Otton, TE
Seeing 12.1 PPR points from a tight end on your bench or the waiver wire is going to catch your attention, but I encourage you to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Cade Otton had a pair of 20-plus yard catches against the Seahawks on Sunday, doubling his total since last Thanksgiving.
Baker Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, and that’s going to result in one-off weeks like this. But let’s not lose sight of the fact that this was a game without Bucky Irving and Mike Evans, in which Chris Godwin totaled just 26 yards, yet still managed to score 73 points.
I didn’t view Otton as a viable streamer next week, and I still don’t. His routes are essentially empty calories, and we have too large a sample of that being the case to put much weight into one productive afternoon.
