The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Washington Commanders players heading into their matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jayden Daniels, QB
Is it possible that Marcus Mariota bought Jayden Daniels extra time to recover by leading the Commanders to a 41-24 win over the Raiders in Week 3? I think so. That’s not to suggest that Daniels’ knee injury isn’t a genuine concern; I just think it’s plausible that we won’t see many limitations this week.
The Chargers’ defense presents a real challenge, but not nearly enough for me to consider pivoting should Daniels return to action this weekend. It is worth noting that Washington gets an extra day of rest and prep heading into Week 6 with a Monday night game against the Bears due up next.
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Daniels has cleared 19 fantasy points in 14 of 17 career games when dropping back at least 20 times, and five of those instances saw him score over 75% of his points with his arm. If you want to dock him a spot or two in your weekly rankings, be my guest, but it’s not nearly enough to consider sitting him if active.
Marcus Mariota, QB
Marcus Mariota was QB6 in a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Raiders, but the backup QB found the sledding a bit tougher in Atlanta over the weekend.
In the 34-27 loss to the Dirty Birds, Mariota was only able to muster two rush attempts and saw only one pass catcher haul in more than two passes. The Commanders could not stay on the field (one-of-eight on third downs and under 26 minutes of possession), making life difficult with WR Terry McLaurin inactive.
All signs point to Daniels returning this weekend. If you roster him, I think you’re wise to keep Mariota rostered until you need to pivot. In a perfect world, the franchise QB is just fine and returns to his Tier 1 ranking (that’s where he sits for me right now), and you don’t have to use Mariota again.
If that’s the case, you simply cut ties with Mariota heading into Week 11. The Commanders go on bye in Week 12, and by getting a week ahead of it, you may be able to add a Michael Penix (at New Orleans in Week 12) or Sam Darnold (at Tennessee).
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB
Chris Rodriguez Jr. ripped off a 48-yard first-quarter run last week in Atlanta as the Falcons overreacted to the gravity caused by Marcus Mariota. That made for a good highlight, but I found it telling that, despite the monster play, Washington still functioned as a committee.
Week 4 Commanders (snaps, touches, routes)
- Chris Rodriguez: 20 / 7 / 8
- Bill Croskey-Merritt: 17 / 9 / 5
- Jeremy McNichols: 16 / 3 / 12
This is truly one of those situations where, for fantasy purposes, if more than one player occupies a role, you have nobody of interest. Daniels is expected back this week, and maybe we’ll see one of these three fit better next to him than the others, but we’d just be guessing at this point to assign that role to anyone.
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Rodriguez can be held onto in deeper formats if for no other reason than the Commanders don’t go on bye until Week 12, and he gives you a warm body that is connected to an above-average offense. I’m not overly optimistic that we’ll get much role development here, but a speculative stash is plenty acceptable.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB
Is it possible that this team didn’t trade away Brian Robinson this summer because of anything against him, but because they simply had no interest in committing to a single RB in this committee era?
Washington RB snaps, Week 4
- Chris Rodriguez: 20 (eight routes and two red zone touches)
- Croskey-Merritt: 17 (five routes and zero red zone touches)
- Jeremy McNichols: 16 (12 routes and one red zone touch)
If I had to pick, Jacory Croskey-Merritt would be my guy, but it’s a limited skill set (three receptions in four games) in an offense that trusts a healthy Daniels to do it all. This running game is essentially sunscreen for a vacation: it’s required but not exciting.
Jeremy McNichols, RB
Jeremy McNichols is on the field, but as far as we are concerned, he’s not really a part of this committee. The 60-yard touchdown in Week 3 is a highlight that may jump to mind when you hear this name, but he’s yet to record five touches in a game this season, and that’s never going to get it done.
McNichols accounted for 9.1% of Washington’s rush attempts and 8.3% of their targets against the Falcons last week, a game without Jayden Daniels. This is an annoying committee, but it’s not one with three heads that needs to be rostered.
Terry McLaurin, WR
This quad injury is troublesome. Terry McLaurin hadn’t missed a game in four consecutive seasons before last week, and, considering that Washington doesn’t go on bye until Week 12, I think they may take a long-term approach with their WR1.
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That’s not to say he sits this week. With Chicago and Dallas on the schedule for Weeks 6-7, it’s very possible that the Commanders prioritize this game. This is a situation I’ll be monitoring alongside that of his starting quarterback.
Through three games, McLaurin doesn’t yet have an end zone target and has the lowest on-field target share through four weeks of his career. We are looking at a low-end WR2 if the injury report is clean. If things remain cloudy, starting both 49er receivers over him on Thursday night is plenty reasonable.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
We spent all offseason worrying about Christian McCaffrey’s health, and now he’s the last man standing in San Francisco. We also spent time worried about Deebo Samuel’s style of play and how it would age, but again, he’s the primary option in Washington without medical concerns.
Last week, one that started with the Commanders in reasonable health, Samuel handled the first rush attempt. Throughout the game, we saw his vintage version. There was a toe-tap on fourth down early in the second quarter and a fade route touchdown in a “gotta have it” spot in the final period.
Luke McCaffrey saw the first target of Week 4 and seems to be coming into his own a bit, but I’m not too worried about that subtracting from our bottom line here. This is a tough matchup, and Samuel sits at the back-end of my WR2 tier instead of the middle, but I’m comfortable going in this direction, regardless of how the health shakes out around him.
Luke McCaffrey, WR
This is not a priority add or anything like that, but Luke McCaffrey, a second-year receiver out of Rice, has scored in consecutive games, and that naturally draws interest from managers with bye week season now upon us.
Despite playing just 38.1% of the snaps over that stretch, the production has been there. McLaurin will come back and earn targets at a high level, something that wasn’t the case last week, and the crafty veterans (Deebo Samuel/Zach Ertz) aren’t going anywhere.
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Knock on my door if Washington starts to prioritize him over Chris Moore (62.9% snap share with a 41-23 route edge over McCaffrey in those two games), and we can reevaluate. For right now, this is a hot streak I’m not paying attention to.
Zach Ertz, TE
It’s a bit difficult to determine if Zach Ertz’s recent struggles are more the result of the QB change than Father Time, but I’m approaching this situation with plenty of caution, even with Daniels expected to return.
The veteran TE found pay dirt in both of Daniels’ starts this season and failed to do so in either of Marcus Mariota’s outings. The yardage upside is limited (under 40 yards in three of four), which places more importance on his scoring than I’m comfortable with.
Even without WR1 McLaurin out, Ertz was just another guy. Samuel was the clear focal point in this pass game: after him, six players on this roster earned 2-4 targets. I don’t trust the volume enough to rank him as a TE1 this week, and he sits behind the Brenton Strange tier at the position.
