The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Los Angeles Rams players heading into their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Matthew Stafford, QB
Matthew Stafford piled up the numbers over the weekend against the previously unbeaten Colts (375 pass yards, three touchdowns) on his way to a QB2 finish. That’s great, but I can’t imagine that you’re overreacting to that performance and considering him in single QB leagues.
Despite Puka Nacua being on a historic pace and honing in on Davante Adams during red zone situations, this was Stafford’s first weekly finish inside the top 15 at the position. He ran hot on Sunday, but in looking at September as a whole, where is Stafford supposed to improve?
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 5 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
The Rams have failed to clear 23 real-life points in five of six games against the 49ers since 2022 (17.7 PPG), and Stafford hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points against San Francisco since joining Los Angeles (12.4 PPG). Last week was fun, but I’d keep that in the past and not project it to continue.
Kyren Williams, RB
Kyren Williams has killed the 49ers in the past, and it’s easy to fall in love with the metrics from those games. In three career matchups, 24 of Williams’ 77 touches have come in the red zone, netting him five touchdowns.
That includes a TD hat trick in Week 3 last season, but it should be noted that neither Puka Nacua nor Cooper Kupp was active for that contest (Tutu Atwell and Colby Parkinson were the top target earners in that game, hence the heavy Williams usage).
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
That’s obviously not the case these days with Nacua looking like the best receiver on the planet and Davante Adams aging with grace. I’m intrigued by Blake Corum seeing 20 snaps last week against the previously unbeaten Colts and seeing his touch count increase each week (2-5-8-11) this season.
Corum isn’t going to unseat Williams, but he could subtract from a bottom line that I already thought carried some risk due to the TE equity tied up in the passing game. Williams remains a starter in all formats, but I’m a big game away from moving on (we are 10 months removed from his last 20-yard gain).
Puka Nacua, WR
Evolution is nice, but mankind is unequipped to deal with some things, and that’s just the way it is. We couldn’t stop the avocado toast momentum, and traffic at rush hour remains undefeated. I think I’m ready to add “guarding Puka Nacua” to that list.
We are four weeks into the season, and the Los Angeles star has three games with nine-plus targets and an 85%-plus catch rate. We haven’t seen a receiver go over that number for an entire season since Michael Thomas in 2019 (five), and the NFL has shown no ability to quiet everything he does well.
Chris Olave is the only player in the league with as many targets as Nacua has receptions, and given the efficiency of those looks, I’d question the Rams if they didn’t keep peppering him with looks all over the field.
Remember when Nacua initially established himself as a star? He had a big Week 1 to open his career, but it was the second week that showed stability in his work. That was a 15-catch, 20-target performance against the 49ers. I’m not projecting that this week, but would it shock you to see him repeat?
Davante Adams, WR
Puka Nacua might well be the best receiver in the sport — he’s comfortably my WR1 in PPR formats for the next three months at the very least — and even with that asset in hand, the Rams view it as a sound decision to feature Davante Adams in scoring situations. And who am I to disagree?
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
The 32-year-old has seen nine of his 27 targets over the past three weeks come with his feet in the end zone, and he’s going to need to maintain that usage pattern to return value alongside the unstoppable force that is Los Angeles’ WR1.
Adams cashed in his end zone target for a 10-yard score last weekend against the Colts, giving him his third straight top-24 finish at the position. We can’t bank on elite counting numbers (under five catches and 60 yards in three of four games), but his role inside the 20-yard line is nothing short of elite.
As long as Matthew Stafford is standing upright, Adams will be a top-25 receiver for me in all formats and thus a staple in your starting lineups.
