The key to offensive success in the NFL is turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Through the season’s first three weeks, four teams have an impressive touchdown rate of over 80% inside their opponents’ 20-yard line: the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, and Miami Dolphins.
The big question is whether they can sustain that pace.
Can Eagles, Steelers, Bears, and Dolphins Keep Their Red Zone TD Surge Alive?
While field goals are helpful, the teams that win the most games typically turn red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. Currently, the Eagles, Steelers, Bears, and Dolphins are leading the league in that category.
Here’s a breakdown of each team and whether their success in the red zone will continue and translate into wins.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles boast a remarkable red zone touchdown rate of 100%, meaning every time they’ve crossed the opponent’s 20-yard line this season, they’ve scored a touchdown. That level of efficiency is a big reason the defending champions are 3-0 and looking like one of the league’s most unstoppable teams.
Philadelphia’s dominance stems from its ability to convert in short-yardage situations more effectively than any other team in the NFL. The Tush Push is a key weapon, making them nearly unstoppable on third or fourth-and-one plays.
While it’s unlikely the Eagles will maintain a perfect 100% red-zone rate all season, they should stay near the top of the league in red-zone scoring efficiency throughout the year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Who said Aaron Rodgers has lost his touch? The Steelers rank second in the league in red-zone touchdown rate this season at 87.5%. Pittsburgh’s offense may not be among the league’s best overall, but with Rodgers leading the way, they’ve been highly efficient once inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
The downside for the Steelers is that they don’t often reach the red zone, ranking 30th in yards per game, so their efficiency doesn’t translate into as many scoring opportunities as it does for the Eagles.
The silver lining is that when Pittsburgh’s offense reaches the red zone, it can capitalize at a very high rate.
Chicago Bears
The Bears are 1-2, but their record isn’t due to struggles in the red zone. They boast the third-highest red-zone touchdown rate in the league at 85.7%.
Through three weeks, Chicago has the ninth-best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 25.3 points per game, with much of that success coming from their efficiency inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The problem for the Bears is their defense, which ranks 29th in both yards and points allowed per game.
Until Chicago can improve on that side of the ball, their red-zone success won’t translate into wins. If their defense can reach even an average level while the offense maintains a red-zone touchdown rate above 80%, the Bears could become one of the league’s most dangerous teams.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are 0-3, but their offense has been surprisingly efficient in the red zone, posting a touchdown rate of 83.3%.
Miami’s problems are twofold. First, they rarely reach the opponent’s 20-yard line, averaging just 281.7 yards per game, which ranks 23rd in the league. Second, their defense has struggled, allowing the most points and the seventh-most yards in the NFL this season.
Until Miami can move the ball into the red zone more frequently and slow down opposing offenses, its red-zone efficiency will unlikely lead to wins.
