With Week 4 over, we’ve never had a clearer view of what the 2025 college football postseason could look like. A testament to one of the most unpredictable seasons we’ve seen in recent years, the future is as clear as mud, with plenty of teams in playoff contention and a ton with a legitimate chance of hitting six wins and booking a bowl berth.
Our college football bowl projections include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 Tulane Green Wave vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
- No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 6 LSU Tigers
- No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 8 Florida State Seminoles
Despite their Week 4 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels, the Tulane Green Wave still has the best chance to reach the College Football Playoff, according to our FPM, with a 16.9% chance of making the postseason tournament and an 18.5% probability of winning the American Conference. Our college football bowl projections pit them against a Texas Longhorns team with a 42.3% shot to make the playoff after beating Sam Houston.
The statement team of Week 4, the Indiana Hoosiers now have a 38.9% chance of making the final 12 teams after their emphatic win over Illinois. The projected first-round clash against the LSU Tigers pits two of the best quarterbacks in the nation, Garrett Nussmeier and Fernando Mendoza, against equally talented defensive units. Our FPM gives LSU a 74.9% win probability here.
MORE: Week 4 College Football Team of the Week
After pulling off one of the marquee wins of Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders have a legitimate route to the College Football Playoff. While the offense will need to be more potent for the rest of the year, the defense has the power to carry this team to the postseason tournament. Our latest college football bowl projections see them face a similar Penn State Nittany Lions team, where the offense isn’t quite at the level of the defense.
If defense wins championships, the Oklahoma Sooners have as good a chance as anyone of making the College Football Playoff. After stunning Auburn with a 10-sack showing, PFSN’s highest-graded defense (97.9, A+) could carry this team all the way to a postseason berth.
John Mateer vs. Tommy Castellanos would be one of the most entertaining quarterback battles of our college football bowl projections, with the ‘Noles being favored by a field goal according to the PFSN College FPM.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 7 Penn State
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 5 Texas
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 LSU
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Florida State
One of the marquee matchups on the Week 5 schedule gets replicated in our college football bowl projections as the Oregon Ducks and Penn State collide in the Cotton Bowl. It’s also a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten Championship, and Dan Lanning’s team is arguably in better shape now than when they won the conference at the first attempt. Quarterback Dante Moore is a legitimate game-changer.
Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels team avoids the Longhorns in the regular season, and despite facing three teams currently ranked in the AP Poll Top 25, they have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff (67.1%) after a commanding win over Tulane in Week 4. However, the PFSN FPM makes Texas a narrow favorite (52.8%) if the two teams meet on neutral territory.
Georgia and LSU avoid each other in regular-season play, but they could face off in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, or even in the playoff quarterfinal, as is the case in our college football bowl projections. Gunner Stockton hasn’t received the same acclaim as his opposite number in this matchup, but he’s shown he can direct this Bulldogs offense to outscore anyone.
The Ohio State Buckeyes were on a bye in Week 4, but nothing we saw from anyone who did play this weekend suggests Ryan Day’s team is anything other than the best in the country. They have PFSN’s third-ranked defense (95.0, A-) and 12th-ranked offense heading into Week 5. Although Florida State has the second-ranked offense (96.0), the Buckeyes have a 68.8% win probability for this projected matchup, according to PFSN FPM.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 GeorgiaÂ
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas
I wonder how political these college football bowl projections could get if this were the final four matchups.
The Peach Bowl would be geographically advantageous for Georgia, not to mention their familiarity with Mercedes-Benz Stadium, so perhaps Ohio State opts to play there to force the Bulldogs down the road to Phoenix, a site much closer to Big Ten companion, Oregon, optimizing the conference’s chances of a title game shutout.
On the field, things are a little simpler. Oregon is a projected 55.6% favorite against the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Texas already did this dance once this season. It’s not always easy to beat a team multiple times in one campaign, but unless Arch Manning can replicate his form against Sam Houston against an actual defense, the Week 1 result should be the same.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Oregon
This has been a consistent conclusion to our college football bowl predictions since the start of the season, and there is little to suggest that we should deviate from this College Football Playoff National Championship Game premonition just yet. Dante Moore vs. Julian Sayin could be an elite quarterback matchup, and both teams boast top-25 defenses heading into Week 5 of the season.
MORE: Week 4 College Football Players of the Week
But who would win? The Buckeyes have a 53.8% win probability on a neutral field, according to our PFSN CFB FPM, and while this clash would likely be closer than the Rose Bowl beatdown that Oregon suffered in the playoff last year, Ohio State’s better defense and offensive line would likely prove the difference-maker. Can the Buckeyes go back-to-back? You bet they can.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
Delaware State vs. Alabama A&M
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
Boise State vs. Arizona
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Cure Bowl
Texas State vs. Rice
68 Ventures Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Southern Miss
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Delaware vs. Old Dominion
Gasparilla Bowl
Memphis vs. Pittsburgh
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
UNLV vs. Buffalo
Boca Raton Bowl
Toledo vs. New Mexico
New Orleans Bowl
James Madison vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl
Troy vs. San Diego State
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. East Carolina
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ohio vs. Michigan State
Rate Bowl
Houston vs. Nebraska
First Responder Bowl
UConn vs. UCF
Military Bowl
Duke vs. USF
Pinstripe Bowl
NC State vs. Maryland
Fenway Bowl
Virginia vs. Navy
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. BYU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Fresno State vs. Western Michigan
New Mexico Bowl
Utah State vs. Georgia Southern
Gator Bowl
Louisville vs. Tennessee
Texas Bowl
Kansas vs. Vanderbilt
Birmingham Bowl
North Texas vs. Mississippi State
Independence Bowl
TCU vs. California
Music City Bowl
Illinois vs. South Carolina
Alamo Bowl
Iowa State vs. USC
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl
Syracuse vs. Utah
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Las Vegas Bowl
Washington vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. Kennesaw State
Liberty Bowl
Baylor vs. Alabama
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Auburn
Holiday Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. Arizona State
Bahamas Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Bowling Green
