The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Los Angeles Chargers players heading into their matchup with the Denver Broncos to help you craft a winning lineup.
Justin Herbert, QB
Justin Herbert has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight and, more importantly, has been fully empowered by his head coach.
Want to check off a play? Do it.
Want to chew up yardage with your legs? Go for it.
Want to be aggressive, understanding that your leash is unlimited? Please!
Herbert has averaged a tick under 13 fantasy points in his last five games against the Broncos with just five touchdowns on 176 attempts, but that’s the past. We are all about looking forward these days, and with this system custom-built to let Herbert thrive, I’m not running away from this matchup.
I’m not running at it for DFS purposes, but he’s a QB1 for me this week, even in a seemingly tough spot.
Najee Harris, RB
Najee Harris put a real dent into Omarion Hampton’s role on Monday night, almost as if he was recovering from a serious injury when the season kicked off, and is now trending towards full health.
Imagine that.
Harris isn’t fun, but he’s capable, and if this offense is going to transition to an aerial-oriented one, truly, maybe that’s all they need.
Los Angeles ranking 30th in running back yards gained before contact is a fundamental flaw, and if that doesn’t get ironed out, our debates about who should be RB1 in this offense won’t matter.
Harris cleared 1,000 rushing yards during all four seasons in Pittsburgh, not because he was some Bijan Robinson-level talent, but because he did what was asked, which kept him on the field.
He’ll continue to do that, which means he’ll have a role unless Hampton’s raw abilities flash and demand more usage.
Omarion Hampton, RB
Through two weeks, Hampton is RB45 and has accumulated just 51.1% of his expected points. The Chargers rank third in dropback rate this season when the game is within one score, a drastic change from their 15th ranking a season ago and a potential cap on how much ground work their star rookie RB has access to.
We thought Hampton would be the lead dog in a run-centric offense, but instead, Harris is taking food off his plate, creating a wide-open offense.
My short-term optimism was fading a bit, and then the rookie put the ball on the ground in the fourth quarter on Monday night with the Bolts trying to run out the clock.
It ended up meaning nothing in terms of the game, but for an old-school coach like Jim Harbaugh, I can’t help but think that the memory lasts.
This is a tough matchup, and there is role risk to consider. I still have Hampton ranked as the lead back in Los Angeles, but he’s more of a fantasy flex than anything else this week, a pretty significant fall from where his stock stood a month ago.
Keenan Allen, WR
I don’t want to say that Father Time is on his heels, but in the battle that the 33-year-old Keenan Allen is fighting this season, the veteran receiver has certainly thrown the first punch.
This is the first time in his storied career that he has caught a touchdown pass in each of the first two weeks of a season. The score on Monday night was a nice non-verbal communication moment with a QB he clearly trusts, Herbert.
I think the production is here to stay.
The touchdowns have helped Allen finish as a top 20 PPR receiver in each of the first two weeks this season, and while I don’t think he scores every week, the 8.5 targets he’s averaging appear sticky with how this offense is functioning right now.
Quentin Johnston is going to make some big plays, and Ladd McConkey is going to lead this team in targets, but there’s very much a niche, chain-moving role available, and Allen is as good as anyone in those spots.
He’s unlikely to see much (if any) of Patrick Surtain this week, and that’s huge. Sign me up for another 5+ catches and 60+ yards, production that lands him inside of my top 30 at the position in Week 3.
Ladd McConkey, WR
McConkey probably needs to play more than 18 games as a professional before I use the word “inevitable,” but it certainly feels that way.
For his career, all he’s done is haul in 88-of-121 targets and offer weekly consistency at a level well beyond his years. After catching all five of his targets on Monday night, he’s up to nine straight games with at least five receptions, and that’s good for the three longest active streaks in the league.
To open the game, Herbert completed 5-of-10 passes. He was 3-of-3 when throwing to his WR1 and 2-of-7 when making the poor decision of looking elsewhere.
Allen’s graceful aging and Quentin Johnston’s spike plays would have scared me in 2024, but with Jim Harbaugh opening up this offense, I’m not the least bit concerned.
McConkey is going to be a top 20 receiver for me every week, and this week is no different despite a tough matchup on paper.
