Survivor pools are all about balancing risk and reward. Sometimes, you take the obvious “safe” route, and other times, you need to take a swing. This week’s matchups give us a strong home option in Denver, a risky-but-intriguing Jacksonville pick, and a classic YOLO spot with Miami. If you’re looking to lock in the Broncos, gamble on the Jaguars, or roll the dice with the Dolphins, we’ll break down the paths and pitfalls to help you survive Week 1.
Who Should You Pick In Survivor This Week?
Safe: Denver Broncos (vs. Titans)
It’s an arbitrary endpoint, but the overall point remains. Since Week 7 of 2023, the Bills are the best home team in the NFL (12-1, 92.3%), and the defending champion Eagles aren’t far behind (12-3, 80%). That’s it, those are the two teams with a higher win percentage in front of their fans over that stretch than the Broncos.
Rookie quarterbacks since 2010 making their first start on the road are 0-9 and have been outscored 263-130 over that stretch. On only one of those occasions did the rookie-led team go through four quarters without a turnover, and while Cam Ward profiles as a QB that can limit his mistakes, this is a rough spot to debut (Denver forced the seventh most turnovers in 2024).
Risk: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Panthers)
Even if things go right in Jacksonville under Liam Coen, how often are you realistically looking in their direction?
Their home date with the Titans doesn’t come until Week 18, a game that might not impact your league at all. Only time will tell if Coen can sprinkle pixie dust on this offense the way he did Tampa Bay last season, but with all the offseason to prepare for the worst-per-play defense from a season ago, I think it’s fair to say this offense should be able to move the ball.
Even if you don’t want to count on the coach, what about their potentially generational rookie? None of us knows exactly what Travis Hunter will bring to the table, but this week is the only instance in which the opponent will be as dark as we are.
MORE: DFS Lineup Optimizer
There are no real reps of Hunter on tape, and even less is known about how exactly the Jags will deploy this uniquely gifted prospect.
I understand, at some level, fearing the development of Bryce Young after a strong finish to last season and pairing it with a defense that was bottom-3 in yards per play, interception percentage, and sack rate. That said, if Young gets rolling, are we sure the Panthers eliminate you?
Bryce Young, Tetairoa McMillan, TBD WR2
Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter
There are strong offensive minds on both sidelines. I like the home team in this game, no matter how the game plays out.
YOLO: Miami Dolphins (at Colts)
The fantasy community preached it all offseason long: the Dolphins are a swing team. There is plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and when all goes right, they are terrifying.
That math gets difficult for season-long managers, as it turns into a risk/reward equation that would make an actuary blush, but for survival purposes, we are only concerned about the next 60 minutes of game time.
Of course, anything can happen between the lines, but is there ever going to be a point in the season where you’re more confident in the status of their star players?
There’s an implosion possibility with this team as the weather cools, and if that happens, you’re certainly never getting a chance to go back to them. Road teams generally aren’t my style when it comes to early picks in survivor – I make assumptions when speed-based teams travel to play indoors.
The Dolphins might be a team you could win your pool without ever using. We know that. Coming out of their Week 12 bye, they host a Saints team that could be in full-on tank mode, but who is to say that Miami is any better than that in nearly three months?
If you’re worried about using up the ‘Fins, you’re obviously playing the long game, and if you’re playing the long game, you’re looking to backload your usage of the best teams.
Saving: Washington Commanders
I’m not all that worried about them winning this week and wouldn’t blame you for going in this direction if you view the objective of this game as simply to survive this week and qualify for next. That said, this is a team trending up that you can use in a few weeks (they get extended prep time to host the Raiders in Week 3). If you really want to play the waiting game, they get these Giants again in Week 15.
