The 2025 U.S. Open women’s final promises to be a blockbuster showdown as defending champion and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka meets American rising star Amanda Anisimova at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Sabalenka, coming off a convincing semifinal victory over Jessica Pegula, has been a dominant force on hard courts this year, not dropping a set until the semis. Anisimova earned her spot in the final with gritty comeback wins over Iga Świątek in the quarterfinals and Naomi Osaka in a late-night semifinal.
Sabalenka has had a stellar 2025, reaching finals at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros (though falling short), and capturing WTA 1000 titles at Miami and Madrid. She is aiming to become the first woman since Serena Williams (2012–14) to defend the U.S. Open title. Anisimova, who took an eight-month break in 2024 to address her mental health, has mounted a powerful comeback in 2025, clinching her first WTA 1000 crown in Doha and now contesting her second consecutive Grand Slam final.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova Match Details
Date: Sept. 6, 2025
Tournament: US Open
Round: Final
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City
Category: Grand Slam
Surface: Outdoor hard
Live telecast: ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV and Sling TV
Sabalenka vs. Anisimova Head-to-Head
Anisimova currently holds the edge in her rivalry with Sabalenka, leading their head-to-head 6–3 across all levels of competition. Their most recent showdown took place in the Wimbledon 2025 semifinals on Jul. 10 in London, where Anisimova edged out a hard-fought 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 win.
That classic Centre Court encounter lasted approximately two hours and 36 minutes, a high-drama match marked by interruptions for spectator medical emergencies and tense momentum swings.
Sabalenka vs. Anisimova Prediction
Sabalenka has been formidable in 2025, achieving an 82.8% win rate (53 wins out of 64 matches), and boasts a 72.3% win rate on hard courts overall. Her record this season stands at 50–10 in tour-level singles. Anisimova, while below Sabalenka in consistency, has posted a solid 33–15 record year-to-date. In 2025, across all surfaces she’s won 63.9 % of her matches (124 wins in 194 hard-court matches yield a similar form), with a general win rate of 73.6 %.
Aryna Sabalenka has not missed a Grand Slam final on hard courts since 2022. pic.twitter.com/dWVBQQmX2c
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 5, 2025
Sabalenka delivers plenty of power and efficiency: her first-serve percentage is 63.5%, she fired 217 aces in 2025, and committed 122 double faults, with a stellar 49.6 % break-point conversion rate.
From detailed hard-court serving data in 2025, Anisimova fired 145 aces, with about 205 double faults. Her first-serve percentage is 62.3%, winning 65% of points on it; her second-serve win percentage is 48.7%. She converts break points at approximately 3.64 per match and saves 59.5% of break points against her.
Sabalenka’s game is built on sheer power: strong serves, aggressive baseline striking, and high break-point conversion give her a serve-plus-baseline dominance style, particularly lethal on hard courts given her efficiency off both first and second serves.
Anisimova, though also an offensive player, displays slightly less serving consistency and more susceptibility to pressure. She relies on speed, flat aggressive groundstrokes, and counter-punching, but the higher double-fault rate and slightly weaker second-serve success may expose her against Sabalenka’s pressure.
Prediction: Sabalenka to win in three sets
