Connor McDavid will open the 2025-26 NHL season without a new contract in place, a development that has quickly become the central storyline in Edmonton. The Oilers’ captain, 28, is entering the final year of his eight-year, $100 million deal signed back in 2017.
The timing couldn’t be more delicate. Edmonton has reached the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back years, falling short against the Florida Panthers on both occasions. With the NHL’s salary cap projected to climb steadily over the next several seasons, many insiders believe McDavid has little reason to rush into a long-term deal now.
Will Connor McDavid Commit to Edmonton Long-Term?
Analyst Jason Gregor recently argued that McDavid has “no reason” to lock into an eight-year extension at this stage. Projections suggest the cap could rise to $130 million within four years, meaning a shorter deal would leave him positioned to maximize future earnings.
“The cap will be $104 million in the first year of his new deal and $113 million in the second; it could be $130 million by his fourth season. Signing for eight years could cost him a lot of money, so he has no reason to do it,” Gregor wrote.
For the Oilers, however, that scenario would put constant pressure on management to keep the roster competitive, knowing the possibility of another negotiation would always loom.
Publicly, the organization insists it isn’t concerned. CEO Jeff Jackson has stressed that McDavid’s commitment to Edmonton should not be doubted. “Connor’s been an Oiler for 10 years,” Jackson said. “He’s been very public about his desire to win and that’s sort of driving his decision-making.”
McDavid has echoed that sentiment. This summer, he reiterated his focus remains on winning in Edmonton and competing for Team Canada internationally.
Still, he admitted he plans to “take [his] time” with the process, a statement that has only fueled speculation.
An Aging Core Complicates Matters
TSN insider Chris Johnston recently warned that the Oilers may be approaching a transition point. With Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Darnell Nurse all moving toward their 30s, the roster could start to age out just as McDavid enters his prime.
That context may help explain his patience. By waiting, McDavid can evaluate whether Edmonton’s front office is capable of sustaining a contending team. The Oilers already carry hefty financial commitments with Draisaitl at $14 million and defenseman Evan Bouchard signed at $10.5 million.
Adding McDavid’s next deal could push three players’ combined salaries beyond $40 million annually.
Columnist David Staples suggested McDavid’s measured comments are calculated, a way of keeping pressure low while his camp manages negotiations. Other reports have described Edmonton executives as “holding their breath,” a sign of both quiet optimism and lingering unease.
One thing is clear that McDavid holds complete control over the timeline. Until then, Edmonton enters the year under a spotlight.
