Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik meet in the US Open’s third round as two in-form competitors with contrasting paths to this stage. Paul, the 14th seed, needed epic resilience to survive his second-round encounter against Nuno Borges, stunning fans by closing out a grueling five-set thriller 7-6(6), 6-3, 5-7, 5-7, 7-5.
Paul enjoyed a breakout 2025, marked by his entry into the ATP Top 10 for the first time following a quarterfinal run at the Australian Open and consistent deep runs across key tournaments. Bublik, seeded 23rd, advanced more quietly into the Round of 32. As the tournament progresses, hopes among the remaining American men increasingly hinge on Paul’s deep run.
Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik Match Details
- Date: Aug. 30, 2025
- Tournament: US Open
- Round: Third Round
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City
- Category: Grand Slam
- Surface: Outdoor hard
- Live telecast: ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV and Sling TV
Paul vs. Bublik Head-to-Head
Paul and Bublik have met six times across ATP, including one Challenger, and Paul holds a commanding 5-1 lead. They’ve played a total of 16 sets, with Paul winning 11 to Bublik’s 5.
Their most recent encounter came in the second round of the Miami Open on Mar. 21, 2025, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. In that hard-court battle, Paul edged out Bublik 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 in a hard-fought match that lasted approximately two hours and 15 minutes.
Paul vs. Bublik Prediction
Paul has showcased a strong hard-court performance throughout 2025, evidenced by deep runs at surface-specific ATP events, including the Miami Open and Indian Wells, and consistent results at Masters 1000 tournaments. The American pro’s overall win-loss through 2025 stands at 27–12 (approximately 69%), and his high number of service games won (~84%) suggests excellent consistency on his preferred surface.
Bublik, on the other hand, brings a more volatile but potent game to hard courts. His finals record on hard courts reads three titles out of eight finals, a 37.5% conversion. With a 24-15 record, Bublik fired 437 aces this season, gathered a first-serve percentage of 61%, and converted only 35% of return points.
Smooth sailing ⛵️
Alexander Bublik defeats Schoolkate 6-3 6-3 6-3!@usopen | #USOpen pic.twitter.com/EtUUrEwWud
— ATP Tour (@atptour) August 28, 2025
Paul plays with baseline solidity and relentless court coverage, rarely giving opponents free points, and earning an edge in service games. His high service game win rate (84%) reinforces this consistent foundation. Bublik’s style differs sharply, with an unpredictable, high-variance approach built on a booming serve, raw offense, and frequent winners.
However, this comes with risk as his career-high double faults (26 in a US Open match in 2019, a tournament-winning record despite that) indicate potential backfire.
Considering their contrasting profiles, Tommy Paul holds the clearer edge heading into this matchup. His steady baseline game, high service hold rate of around 84%, and proven ability to extend rallies on hard courts make him more reliable in Grand Slam conditions.
Prediction: Paul to win in four sets
