Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku enters his age-29 season with questions under center, but what else is new? Over the past two seasons, he is TE4 (minimum 20 games played) in per of PPR points per game and leads the position with 21 end zone targets.
The production profile looks solid, yet he’s not always being drafted as a top 10 tight end this summer and isn’t considered much of a threat to the first three tiers at the position.
Is that right?
David Njoku’s Fantasy Outlook
I’ll get to the talent and overall abilities of Njoku in a minute, but I’d guess you’re aware of what he is capable of. Instead, you’re skittish about drafting him with a fringe top-100 pick, if not later, because of the uncertainty at quarterback.
First of all, that’s fair. We are human beings and thus programmed to enjoy stability. We have the same thing for breakfast more often than not, we work out at the same general time regularly, and start/conclude our days at roughly the same time. We love consistency. At some level, we thrive on it. Even if you don’t mean to, you play to your comfort zone, and comfort typically comes from knowing the result of an action.
We don’t have that in Cleveland, and we aren’t going to.
Get comfortable being uncomfortable.
In 2024, Njoku was a TE1 in seven of 11 games. After recovering from the early-season injury, he had eight games in Weeks 6-18 with at least a handful of catches, a total topped by only Trey McBride. Those notes are impressive at face value, but when you add the context of the Browns’ passing game, they jump off the page.
2024 Cleveland Rankings
- Yards Per Completion: 29th
- Sack Rate: 30th
- Interception Rate: 30th
- Touchdown Rate: 31st
- Completion%: 31st
- Passer Rating: 32nd
And you’re still worried about Njoku’s ability to produce in light of a questionable situation?
David Njoku … DOG pic.twitter.com/D7HDLYDiyZ
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 30, 2024
I can’t say with certainty that this pass game, or offense as a whole, will be “good”, but I can say that there isn’t much room to move in the wrong direction. What encouraged me most about Njoku’s production last season was that his profile improved with time. That, as it became clear that this offense was limited and that the veteran tight end was the most consistent producer, defenses couldn’t do anything to slow him.
Njoku Production Splits
- Games 1-6: 22.6% on-field target%, 23.5% red zone target%, 5.2 aDOT
- Games 7-11: 27.1% on-field target%, 50% red zone target%, 5.9 aDOT
That tells me that Cleveland’s desire to get their top option the ball was more impactful than the opponent’s ability to remove him from the boxscore, and I don’t see any reason to think that changes in 2025, no matter who is taking snaps.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Here’s a look at the general tiers that have taken form per our FREE Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator:
- Tier 1: Brock Bowers and Trey McBride
- Tier 2: George Kittle
- Tier 3: Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, and Travis Kelce
After those three tiers, we have a mix of veterans (Jonnu Smith and Mark Andrews) and rookies (Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland). I like those four players plenty, but Njoku projects favorably to all of them by a decent amount and profiles much more like that third tier at the worst. The situation is far from ideal, but the lack of true target competition is enough to have me interested at the right price on draft day.
Mason LeBeau‘s David Njoku Fantasy Projection
Look, I’m just like everyone else. I want to love David Njoku. I want to pass on tight ends early and take him later because “he’s solid enough with a ton of upside.” I get it, and I’ve been there. It’s especially hard after watching him finally “breakout” at the end of 2023 with Joe Flacco, whom he may be catching passes from again to start this year.
Unfortunately, it’s just not going to happen. He’s a fine player and a physical specimen, but he hasn’t been that level of player in his eight seasons. He’s only been a top-10 TE twice in his career now, never surpassing six touchdowns. Unless he catches lightning and the Browns’ rotation of quarterbacks happens to all love and target him at a ridiculous rate, it’s unlikely this offense will be conducive to scoring opportunities.
If he isn’t going to catch a lot of touchdowns, he’s going to need a ton of catches and yards. Njoku, to this point, has been more of a field stretcher, averaging 10.7 yards per reception in his career. In a better offensive ecosystem with a little more scoring upside, that’s a perfectly fine thing to be. When those things aren’t clicking, it’s not good for fantasy. Don’t think of it as fading Njoku, think of it as fading the Browns.
