Jannik Sinner arrives at the 2025 US Open looking fully recovered and carrying serious momentum. After an illness forced him to retire mid-final in Cincinnati earlier this month, Sinner bounced back with an impressive 6-1, 6-1, 6-2 demolition of Vit Kopriva that took just 98 minutes.
That dominant performance extended his hard-court Grand Slam winning streak to 22 matches and solidified his status as the reigning champion. Now, he finds himself in a tight race with Carlos Alcaraz for the world No. 1 ranking. The Italian isn’t just defending his title; he’s aiming to become the first man to win back-to-back US Open championships since Roger Federer did it in 2008.
Can a Familiar Underdog Stop Sinner’s Reign?
Standing across the net is Alexei Popyrin, a powerful Australian with a reputation for pulling off major upsets. He advanced to the second round by defeating Emil Ruusuvuori in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(3). Popyrin is no stranger to the big stage, having famously stunned Novak Djokovic at last year’s US Open. He followed that up with a title run at the 2024 Canadian Open, his first ATP Masters 1000 trophy, where he knocked off multiple top-20 opponents.
Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin Match Details
- Date: August 28, 2025
- Tournament: US Open
- Round: Second Round
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City
- Category: Grand Slam
- Surface: Outdoor hard
- Live telecast: ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV and Sling TV
How Do Sinner and Popyrin Match Up Head-to-Head?
Jannik Sinner and Alexei Popyrin have faced each other only once on the professional circuit, with Popyrin leading their head-to-head record 1-0. Their lone meeting occurred on May 5, 2021, in the second round of the Madrid Open, a clay-court event. Popyrin won that match 7-6(5), 6-2 in approximately 94 minutes.
What Does the Tale of the Tape Predict?
Jannik Sinner enters the match with a stunning 12-1 record on hard courts this season, according to the ATP’s Infosys Win/Loss Index. His 22 consecutive wins at hard-court majors make him one of the most feared players on the surface. On the other side, Popyrin has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly during his run to the Canadian Open title and his solid play during the North American hard-court swing. However, his overall tour-level record on hard courts this year is 6-9.
Sinner’s game is built on controlled aggression, featuring heavy groundstrokes, tactical intelligence, and a consistently high first-serve percentage. This is complemented by excellent baseline defense. Popyrin counters with a power-based, serve-and-attack style, aiming to dictate points with his big forehand and physical play.
Feels great to be back here 👏🏻 Happy with today’s performance and grateful to be healthy again. Thank you all for the support ❤️ @usopen pic.twitter.com/Lo8oIMbGqo
— Jannik Sinner (@janniksin) August 26, 2025
On hard courts, Sinner’s precision and low error rate typically neutralize big hitters like Popyrin. However, if the Australian can find his rhythm, especially on a fast surface, he has the firepower to push Sinner into uncomfortable situations.
According to the ATP’s Serve Leaderboards, Sinner ranks No. 1 overall in serve rating this year. He has a first-serve percentage of 58.7%, wins 80.9% of his first-serve points, and wins 58.6% second-serve points. His service games won rate is around 85%, with 229 aces in 2025.
Popyrin’s numbers show a 62.5% 1st serve, 76.2% 1st serve points won, 50.8% 2nd serve points won, 82% service games won, and 305 aces in 2025. Regarding overall win-loss, Sinner holds a career win-loss of 317-105, with a 2025 season record of 32–4, while Popyrin’s career win-loss stands at 190-137, and his 2025 tour-level record reads 16-18.
Considering the current form and statistics, Sinner clearly holds the edge. His consistent serve, command from the baseline, and proven dominance on hard courts in major tournaments make him the favorite to advance.
Prediction: Sinner to win in straight sets
