Buffalo Bills running back James Cook was a tricky evaluation ahead of last season. Would the Bills really commit to making him their lead back? As it turned out, Cook was one of the better fantasy football values in what historically was the RB dead zone. Should fantasy managers expect similar production from Cook in 2025?
James Cook Fantasy Outlook
After the 2023 season, my thoughts on Cook were that this is who he is. Cook averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game. He was a solid RB2, but not exactly a difference-maker. There was definitely room for upside, but I didn’t see RB1 potential.
In 2024, Cook proved me wrong, averaging 16.7 points per game (PPG). Clearly, RB1 upside did exist, and he realized that potential.
Now, Cook comes with a borderline RB1 price tag, currently going off the board as the RB14 with an overall average draft position (ADP) of around 35. Cook is actually cheaper now than he was a year ago. Is the fantasy community out of its mind?
Contrarily, the fantasy community is extremely savvy. It continues to show how much better and more knowledgeable the average fantasy manager is now compared to 10 years ago.
Typically, when a young running back has a true breakout season, he gets more expensive. Yet, Cook’s price decreased a bit. What has the fantasy community figured out?
Let’s examine what made Cook’s 2024 so much better than 2023. It wasn’t his opportunity share, as that dropped from 62.4% to 58.9%. How about his target share? Nope. That went from 9.9% to 8.1%. Then it had to be overall volume? Wait. No. That dropped, too, going from 291 opportunities to 245. In basically every measurable stat or metric, Cook was worse/lower in 2024…except for one glaring change.
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Over the first two years of his career, in 34 total games, Cook scored nine touchdowns. He doubled that in 2024 alone. Despite sharing a field with Josh Allen, who was the team’s primary goal line back in 2023, Cook’s goal line usage changed dramatically.
In 2023, Cook had exactly one rushing touchdown from inside the five-yard line. In fact, he only had two rushing touchdowns the entire season.
In 2024, Cook scored 16 of his 18 touchdowns on the ground. Seven of them came from inside the five-yard line. Cook had five carries inside the five-yard line the entire 2023 season. He had 15 such carries in 2024.
Can Cook Continue Scoring Touchdowns in 2025?
James Cook with the TD in Buffalo!
📱: Stream #INDvsBUF on NFL+ https://t.co/bBFpXevVUR pic.twitter.com/aE8UGgBzba
— NFL (@NFL) August 12, 2023
Cook is a talented player. But he doesn’t see enough volume to return high-end fantasy value without the touchdowns. It’s safe to say he won’t score 18 times again. It’s also safe to say he shouldn’t regress all the way to a mere six touchdowns. If Cook scores 10 times, is that enough to justify his ADP? Can he score 10 times?
The Bills’ backfield hasn’t changed. Cook remains atop the depth chart, while Ty Johnson and Ray Davis mix in behind him.
The most predictive stat for running back fantasy production is volume. Cook’s 2023 performance was more in line with his volume than in 2024, as evidenced by him averaging 0.8 fantasy points per opportunity two years ago compared to 1.09 last season. That’s 31st in the league vs. 8th.
On the one hand, we don’t want to rely on efficiency. On the other hand, the Bills were quite the formidable offense last year. Why would they change anything? There’s clearly a vested interest in only using Allen at the goal line when they feel they have to.
I came into this writeup expecting to be calling for a full fade on Cook. Now, having done the research, he’s actually shaping up to be a bit of a value. Even though I don’t think the 16-PPG upside is really there, as he won’t score enough, Cook would merely have to replicate his low-scoring 2023 season to return par value.
I have Cook ranked as my RB15, right smack in the middle of his finishes each of the past two seasons. If you can get Cook in the fourth round, that feels like a very safe selection at a part of the draft that produces a lot of busts.
Cameron Sheath’s James Cook Fantasy Projection
James Cook took a step forward in fantasy last season, jumping to an RB8 finish after landing four spots lower in 2023. But while the Bills star scored an extra 34 points in 2024, you could be forgiven for expecting a bigger jump given that he scored an additional 12 touchdowns.
With the player’s contract dispute now dealt with, the biggest red flag surrounding the runner is the likely regression from his 16 rushing touchdowns in 2024. Cook scored just two rushing touchdowns in 2023, despite having 30 more attempts.
Second-year back Ray Davis is a serious threat to Cook’s goal-line work moving forward, after impressing with his opportunities last year. The then-rookie’s 113 carries weren’t insignificant, and it would surprise no one if he ate into his teammate’s opportunities even more in 2025.
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The team’s decision to extend Cook gets him on the field, at least, but the fact that Cook had to force their hand, after they had been so generous with extensions throughout the offseason, is a concern. The contract is back-loaded and has no guaranteed money beyond 2026, suggesting Cook’s future isn’t as secure as it seems at first glance.
Cook should still be able to put up RB2 numbers in Buffalo, with some RB1 weeks thrown in. He’s not a can’t-miss prospect in Round 3, though, considering some of the receivers being drafted around him, and the running backs being taken a round or two later.
