De’Von Achane has looked as explosive as any running back in the league at points during his two NFL seasons. When he gets in space, be it via a handoff or a dump off pass, he’s in scoring position – it really is that simple.
That said, his productivity is tied to a quarterback whose availability is far from a certainty. Is taking a leap of faith on this potential league winner the play for redraft fantasy football managers in 2025?
De’Von Achane Fantasy Outlook
Achane racked up 1,499 scrimmage yards a season ago and has found paydirt 23 times across his 28 games as a professional (6.1 yards per touch over a 411 touch sample size).
The total numbers from 2024 sound good, and that’s without taking into consideration that he was held under 40 rushing yards in the majority of his games. Investing in Achane is something of a parlay with Tua Tagovailoa’s health, and that is why we are getting an elite talent at a price that isn’t in line with his ceiling.
2024 Splits (points per reception)
- Tagovailoa starts: 22.6 points per game (PPG), 18.4% production over expectation, 1.18 points per touch
- Otherwise (five games): 8.6 PPG, 15.5% production below expectation, 0.73 points per touch
Every player carries a level of risk, and while Achane, by way of his quarterback, profiles as a greater concern, it’s not as if the market isn’t accounting for that. In that vein, this is the type of league-winning I don’t mind taking.
De’Von Achane and the Dolphins are on the board first!
📺: #BUFvsMIA on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/GqJJdyI3EW pic.twitter.com/h53DuVgxqe— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2024
In taking risks early, I need the payoff to be special. We have a large enough sample for me to feel comfortable labeling his 42.8% rate of gaining 5+ yards (14.1% 10+ yards for those concerned) as a unique talent with running back 1 potential. How about the fact that he’s averaging 7.52 yards per carry when not hit behind the line-of-scrimmage for his career, does that do it for you?
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In a perfect world, the Dolphins would have added more support to their offensive line (Jonah Savaiinaea, early in the second round, was their only investment). Still, any trend toward league average (27th last season per our Offense+ grading metrics) would put Achane in a position to be a Tier 1 option at the position, a class he’s not being drafted in.
Personally, I lean toward him over Ashton Jeanty – I’ll take the more proven commodity in the offense with more upside and trust myself to layer in some “safe” secondary options. There are plenty of muddied backfields where you can invest in the cheapest of the two primary options in the second half of your draft and get access to some touch upside to offset any missed time from Tagovailoa.
The juice is worth the squeeze here for me; you just need to build around this unique situation in a thoughtful way.
Cameron Sheath’s De’Von Achane Fantasy Projection
De’Von Achane isn’t being spoken about as the potential RB1 overall in 2025, but he should be. The Miami Dolphins speedster finished as the RB5 in full-PPR last season after being targeted a massive 87 times in the passing game.
When QB Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, though, Achane averaged 22.55 PPR points per game, which would have ranked first at the position last year. Unfortunately, the Miami quarterback’s struggles to stay healthy affected Achane as much as the rest of the Dolphins offense.
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In the six games that Tua didn’t start last year, Achane’s average points per game dropped to just 8.63, which would have ranked 42nd at the position. That drop-off isn’t lost on fantasy managers, with the Miami star currently available as the seventh running back off the board in drafts.
The Dolphins have a new backup quarterback in Zach Wilson, who struggled with the Jets after being drafted second overall in 2021. Wilson will need to improve on his performances in New York to resurrect his NFL career, but he could provide a more solid floor for Achane in fantasy.
The Dolphins’ running back position received a 23.1% target share in 2024, but Achane’s targets fell off a cliff without his starting quarterback. In Wilson’s last season as a starter (2023), the then-Jets quarterback targeted running backs on exactly 23.1% of his throws, something he should have no hesitation in replicating in Miami.
