Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is entering his age-26 season, and I’m still not really sure what to make of him. There have been moments of greatness, but consistency and scoring opportunities have been a significant issue.
The talent isn’t a question, and his best years are still ahead of him, but what can fantasy football managers expect after easily the worst season of his career (58 catches for 744 yards and two scores in 15 games)?
Jaylen Waddle’s Fantasy Outlook
There is no two ways about it. Waddle hasn’t been very good for two consecutive seasons. He entered the league with a big playmaking profile (18.9 yards per catch during his collegiate days at Alabama, finishing one of every 6.2 catches in the end zone), and we saw that potential in 2022, his first season playing alongside Tyreek Hill (75 catches for 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns).
That was after an impressive rookie season where he cleared 100 catches and showcased the ability to create space in short order. For two years, we were sure that the Dolphins got a bargain with the sixth overall pick in the 2021 draft and that he’d be a fantasy lineup lock for years to come.
Production Through Two Seasons (PPR)
- Julio Jones: 16.0 points per game, 17.8% over expectation
- Waddle: 15.3 PPG, 15.9% over expectation
- Mike Evans: 15.2 PPG, 0.4% below expectation
- Tee Higgins: 13.8 PPG, 9.9% over expectation
Yes, that’s good. But after averaging seven touchdown catches per season through his introductory period, he’s found paydirt just six times since (29 games and 187 targets). Waddle was better than WR35 just three times across 15 contests a season ago, and that raw data is even a touch optimistic.
One of those performances came in Week 12 against the Patriots on the heels of being held under 50 receiving yards in eight of nine games (three lead-in games: 89 scrimmage yards) and thus more than likely rotting on your bench for the productive game.
In the past two seasons, his yards per catch and PPR fantasy points per target have declined. As mentioned, he came out of college with take-the-top-off-the-defense potential, so, on the surface, the YAC trend isn’t worrisome because 50-yard bombs that come with 48 air yards don’t carry much YAC potential.
But that hasn’t been the case.
His aDOT is moving in the same direction as his run-after-catch numbers… down. In 2022, his average target came 12.2 yards down the field, a number that tanked to 10.4 in 2023 and dipped again in 2024, falling to 9.8.
As long as Hill is operating as the WR1 in this offense, we know the raw target volume is going to be difficult to count on, and that means the 54.3 air yards per game he averaged a year ago simply isn’t going to cut it if the YAC ability isn’t going to recover.
Of course, there is a moving piece in this profile that he has no control over, and that’s Tua Tagovailoa’s health. The sixth-year quarterback has appeared in more than 13 games just once in his career and is always one play away from an extended absence due to his lengthy history of head injuries.
Here’s a visual representation of Waddle’s target diet with and without QB1 under center over the past two seasons. Notice anything?
His aDOT is 25% higher when Tagovailoa is pulling the trigger, and, despite the higher degree of difficulty that comes with deeper targets, his efficiency (72% catch rate) is also much better (56.7%).
Now, we aren’t talking about a massive sample in the “without” bucket (163 routes and 30 targets). Still, it proves that betting on a Waddle rebound is a parlay. You need him to rediscover his form AND for Tagovailoa to repeat his fully healthy 2023 campaign.
WADDLE WADDLE 🐧
📺: #GBvsMIA on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/AwrcEGB7Ry pic.twitter.com/da57tQp9GM— NFL (@NFL) December 25, 2022
That’s what has him a touch below the other receivers who are WR2s on their own team but still in the fantasy starter tier. Players like DeVonta Smith and Jameson Williams have their own battles of inconsistencies, but they don’t require as many things to trend right for them to pay off their ADP.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
George Pickens vs. Waddle is an interesting debate. Pickens is joining a new team as the clear WR2 in an offense that was run off the rails last season due to an injury to QB1. CeeDee Lamb is superior to Hill, giving Pickens less wiggle room volume-wise, but I’d argue that he holds the edge in touchdown equity, and that’s valuable.
Waddle posted a strong 23.4% red-zone usage rate as a rookie, but he’s been held under 15.5% in each of the three seasons since, giving him less access to scores that can help mask an otherwise unproductive afternoon.
Right now, I’d rather have Waddle, but I’m not overextending for either. They are both on the fringe of players I’d be comfortable leaving a draft with penciled in as weekly options.
Mason LeBeau‘s Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Projection
One of the scariest picks to make in fantasy, I won’t be surprised if Jaylen Waddle falls below his WR33 value in drafts. I’ve been burned by him, too, and I’d struggle to trust him, but his value is near his floor. Other receivers in this range, Chris Olave, Deebo Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, and Chris Godwin, I trust less for this season. A few others I like more, like Calvin Ridley and Jakobi Meyers, don’t have the same ceiling.
I’m not going to tell you to draft Waddle if you don’t want to, because I’m still not sure if I would. Still, things seem to be lining up for him. It really doesn’t feel like Tyreek Hill is going to spend the entire season as a Dolphin, and if he goes, Waddle could see a massive workload similar to his rookie season. It certainly feels like he misses a lot of games because he’s easily banged up, but he’s only missed six total in his four years so far.
That said, Waddle was bad enough last year to avoid. In 15 games, he only managed 744 yards and two scores, which isn’t close to good enough. This is the same offense, same play caller, and is still across from Tyreek Hill. I like to think Mike McDaniel has gameplanned for Waddle to be more in a WR1 role, but his usage last year was confusing, even when Hill played poorly. On top of all that, you’re relying on Tagovailoa’s health.
So, Waddle feels equal parts an easy mid-round target yet terrifyingly unreliable. I think he’s worth an add if he slips beyond his ADP. Otherwise, I’m likely targeting him as a FLEX option where I’m not relying on him, as long as you have two WRs you trust already.
