For a defending champion, the first round should be a straightforward tune-up. For Coco Gauff, it feels more like a minefield. She enters the 2025 US Open not just as the reigning queen of New York, but as a superstar battling her own game after a recent French Open victory.
Standing across the net is Ajla Tomljanović, a seasoned fighter with a well-earned reputation for wrecking homecoming parties, most notably Serena Williams’ iconic farewell. This isn’t just a match, it’s an immediate test of nerve and skill from the opening bell.
What Makes This First-Round Matchup So Dangerous?
Few first-round matches carry this much weight. While Gauff enters as the No. 3 seed and the 2023 champion, Tomljanović is a proven threat on the US Open’s hard courts. As a three-time Grand Slam quarterfinalist, her defining moment came during an electrifying run in 2022, where she ended Serena Williams’ storied campaign.
Tomljanović’s flat, clean strikes are ideally suited for the fast pace of Flushing Meadows, and her composure in big moments makes her a nightmare opponent for any top seed looking to find their rhythm early in the tournament.
Coco Gauff vs. Ajla Tomljanović Match Details
- Date: Aug. 25, 2025
- Tournament: US Open
- Round: First Round
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City
- Category: Grand Slam
- Surface: Outdoor hard
- Live telecast: Tennis Channel, Fubo, ESPN+, Sky Sports
Can Gauff Overcome Her Biggest Weakness?
The biggest question surrounding Gauff is her serve, which has become a glaring weakness during the 2025 season. She leads the entire WTA Tour with an alarming 320 double faults, over 100 more than any other player. These struggles were displayed in Cincinnati, where she committed 16 double faults in her quarterfinal loss to Jasmine Paolini. The serving issues became so significant that they prompted a bold coaching change just before the U.S. Open.
Gauff brought in biomechanics specialist Gavin MacMillan to overhaul her technique urgently. In contrast, Tomljanović does not have a standout serving weapon, but she also lacks an acute weakness in that area, giving her a potential advantage if Gauff’s struggles continue.
Who Holds the Edge on the Hard Court?
Coco Gauff’s overall record on hard courts in 2025 remains solid despite her serving troubles. She reached the semifinals at Indian Wells and the fourth round in Miami, compiling a 5-4 record on North American hard courts since her triumph at Roland Garros. Her aggressive baseline game and elite movement, combined with major wins on the surface at the 2023 U.S. Open, the 2024 China Open, and the 2024 WTA Finals, confirm her comfort on hard courts.
Ajla Tomljanović holds a 19–18 win-loss record for 2025 but has limited standout results and no titles to her name this season. The statistical edge on this surface tilts heavily in Gauff’s favor.
🇺🇸 Coco Gauff’s projected US Open draw:
R1 – Tomljanovic
R2 – Vekic/Bouzas Maneiro
R3 – Frech/Stearns
R4 – Osaka/Kasatkina/Garcia
QF – Keys/Muchova/Noskova/Kostyuk
SF – Swiatek/Anisimova/Svitolina/Alexandrova
F – Sabalenka/Pegula/Rybakinapic.twitter.com/LH7TDA5Mpi— Lucas (@FlopMerchant) August 21, 2025
The two have met only once before, with Gauff holding a 1–0 head-to-head advantage. That meeting was at the Paris Olympics on July 28, 2024, where Gauff dominated on clay with a 6–3, 6–0 victory in just 58 minutes. While that history favors Gauff, switching to a hard court could change the dynamic.
Ultimately, Gauff’s higher ranking (No. 3 vs. Tomljanović’s No. 84), superior results in 2025, and proven firepower make her the clear favorite. Despite her serving vulnerabilities, her aggressive return and powerful baseline game should be enough to overcome the challenge. Expect her to navigate this tricky opening-round test and secure a victory.
Prediction: Gauff to win in straight sets
