As a first-round pick, San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall was primed for a much larger role as a rookie. Unfortunately, an offseason incident resulting in his getting shot delayed his NFL debut and really stymied his development. With a normal offseason, is the 49ers WR set for a big leap in 2025? Should fantasy football managers be targeting him?
Ricky Pearsall Fantasy Outlook
Pearsall is among the most challenging players to evaluate for the 2025 season. We will know a lot about him after this year. We’ll know a lot about him after a few weeks. But fantasy managers need to know whether to draft him ahead of time, which will be tricky to figure out.
In nearly every situation where an early-round WR has a poor rookie season, I am perfectly content shutting the door. I’ll be right more than I’m wrong, and fine with missing out on the select few outliers. Pearsall’s situation is a little different. Historical trends don’t exactly have a means for accounting for a player missing time with his team because of a gunshot wound.
The flow of Pearsall’s season also added to the confusion after his debut in Week 7. He immediately played a significant role, running 31 routes in his first game back.
Pearsall posted 11.7 and 17.3 fantasy points in his second and third games. He was a hot waiver wire add, and it looked like this was the start of a first-round rookie proving why he was drafted in the first round.
Then, for the next month or so, Pearsall vanished. He did not catch a pass in any of the 49ers’ next three games. He caught exactly one pass in Weeks 14 and 15.
In Week 17, though, Pearsall started to show signs again. He closed out the season with games of 28.7 and 16.9 fantasy points. His 8-141-1 effort in Week 17 against the Lions was superb.
Ricky Pearsall’s final 2 games of the season in 2024:
• 18 targets
• 14 catches
• 210 receiving yards
• 2 touchdowns pic.twitter.com/cQP2D2QTs2— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) May 10, 2025
How you view Pearsall really depends on what parts of his rookie season you want to focus on. Is it the five-week stretch where he had three bagels and caught a combined two passes? Or is it the strong debut and strong finish where he looked like a potential WR1?
Overall, Pearsall’s rookie numbers are poor. He amassed only 400 receiving yards in 11 games, well short of the 525-yard threshold we want to see him hit.
Pearsall only earned a 14.6% target share and was targeted on 22.3% of his routes run. Those numbers ranked 67th and 48th, respectively. But he had extenuating circumstances and did close out the season very strongly.
This year, the 49ers’ receiving corps is in a bit of flux. For the first time in the Kyle Shanahan era, it’s pretty wide open.
Brandon Aiyuk is set to miss the start of the season, and he’s unlikely to be his usual elite self until 2026. That leaves Pearsall in a starting role alongside Jauan Jennings.
Fantasy managers seem split on who the top 49er to target should be. Pearsall and Jennings are right next to each other at WR44 and 45.
There are other concerns with this offense, though. For starters, this offense runs through McCaffrey. Yet, even in a season where McCaffrey missed all but four games, the game plan didn’t change. The 49ers want to play slow as molasses, control the clock, and run the ball.
Over the past two seasons, no team has run plays at a slower pace than the 49ers’ 30.5 seconds per snap. The fact that the next slowest team, the Titans, are nearly a full second faster than the 49ers (29.6) is outrageous.
San Francisco also has a 46% neutral game script run rate over the past two seasons. That’s good for eighth in the league. As a result, Purdy averaged 27.75 pass attempts per game in 2023 and 30.3 per game in 2024.
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There is reason for optimism in 2025, though. The 49ers aren’t as good as they used to be. Therefore, they may not be able to dominate games, resulting in more passing. We saw a glimpse of that last year, as Purdy’s attempts per game ticked up by 2.5.
In fantasy, we want to embrace uncertainty. That’s how we gain an edge. The lack of clarity on who the top receiver will be depresses the ADP of both Jennings and Pearsall. I have Pearsall ranked as my WR39. While I would not classify myself as a Pearsall guy, I am ahead of consensus and comfortable with my ranking. If he’s the right player to take when his name comes out, I am fine with taking the chance.
Frank Ammirante’s Ricky Pearsall Projection
Ricky Pearsall is in a good spot for a breakout season. Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a serious knee injury, which could keep him out until mid-season, and Deebo Samuel is no longer with the team. That leaves Pearsall competing with Jauan Jennings to be the 49ers’ most valuable wideout, at least in the early part of the season.
The Niners have one of the softest schedules in the NFL, so they’ll have plenty of opportunities to rack up points. As a former first-rounder, Pearsall has the talent to reap the benefits there. While his rookie numbers were underwhelming, we did see a spike week of eight catches for 141 yards and a touchdown against the Lions.
Pearsall is reportedly having a strong camp. With the clear path to targets, we’ve seen his ADP creep up to the sixth or seventh round. I’m cool with that price, but just understand that this is the definition of a boom-or-bust pick, since Pearsall doesn’t have a track record yet.
