Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown battled injuries early, but he scored in three straight games to end the fantasy football season and found paydirt in each of his team’s final two games on their run to a Super Bowl title. He’s been an elite fantasy asset for six seasons now and has high-end upside, but there did seem to be a cap on his target upside last season that most fantasy WR1s don’t have.
Should you still draft Brown as your top option at the position?
Should You Draft A.J. Brown in Fantasy Football?
Brown is excellent. He posted six top-8 finishes a season ago and now has at least seven touchdown receptions in five of his six seasons in the NFL.
Dad, how good was Philadelphia AJ Brown? pic.twitter.com/MnNJrhJHsX
— AJ Muse (@aj_muse_) June 28, 2025
He’s just not for me at the cost.
The case is pretty straightforward. Brown was able to return good value a year ago, but how repeatable is his 33.2% production over expectation (2023: +8.2%)? It’s not a nice-to-have in Philadelphia, it’s a need-to-have.
The receivers in his general tier of non-fantasy alphas but justifiable options to be your first receiver are players like Tee Higgins, Drake London, Davante Adams, and, for some, Nico Collins (I have Collins ranked as a part of the first tier, but I understand that I’m the anomaly and not the norm.
Based on name value alone, I’m guessing that most of you would pencil Brown atop that tier. That could prove accurate; he’s that physically gifted, and this offense lives in scoring position, but I can get around the volume disadvantage.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
The non-Eagle offenses mentioned above all cleared 550 pass attempts in 2024 (even in a down season from C.J. Stroud and a trainwreck performance from Kirk Cousins) while Philadelphia was the first team in two seasons to total under 450 attempts through the air.
- What if DeVonta Smith takes a step forward?
- What if this team doesn’t lead the league in time of possession (32:22)?
Brown missed four games last season and was oddly silent to open the postseason (first two games: three catches on 10 targets for 24 yards). In 2023, his first touchdown came in October and his last in November.
Yes, he’s averaged 15.4 yards per catch since coming to Philadelphia and was more than twice as efficient on a yards-per-route basis on third down than Smith when Hurts was under center last year. I don’t think there’s a real question as to who the WR1 in this offense is, but I do think it’s fair to question just how valuable that role is in this era of elite playmakers.
Would you be shocked if talented receivers with quarterbacks on the rise like Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore, or Terry McLaurin proved more valuable this year?
I wouldn’t. In fact, I expect two of those three to cash in on that upside, and if that’s the case, managers with Brown rostered will feel as if they left money on the table when the 2025 season is over.
Frank Ammirante’s A.J. Brown Fantasy Projection
A.J. Brown is coming off a disappointing season from a fantasy perspective, going for 67 catches, 1,079 yards, and seven touchdowns in 13 games. However, the good news for Brown is that the Eagles played at an unsustainable rate in terms of rushing volume.Â
With a tougher schedule along with Saquon Barkley coming off a massive workload, there’s a good chance that we see the Eagles pass at a higher rate this year, which would mean more targets for Brown.Â
Additionally, this is still one of the most talented wideouts in football, highlighted by his five 100-yard games last season. Let’s not forget that he put up 1,400-plus yards in back-to-back seasons from 2022-2023.
If you’re looking for a high-floor wideout with the upside to go nuclear if his situation breaks right, look no further than Brown. This is still a player with a strong track record, playing in an elite offense, catching passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, behind a top-tier offensive line.Â
