On 53 fewer targets, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is tied with Tyreek Hill for the most receptions (430) since he entered the league in 2021, establishing himself as one of the most productive receivers in the game.
But what’s the ceiling?
Ja’Marr Chase is fresh off of earning a triple crown in a similar situation (a stable pocket passing QB with a strong Robin receiver next to him and a productive running game in support of the aerial assault) – could St. Brown be the skeleton key that unlocks fantasy football championships in 2025?
Should You Draft Amon-Ra St. Brown in Fantasy?
When naming our game’s most consistently impactful fantasy assets, it doesn’t take long to name St. Brown. He’s caught at least 90 balls in all four of his NFL seasons, has only two missed games on his resume, and has seen his touchdown total tick upwards with each passing year.
He doesn’t turn 26 years old until October and is coming off a season that included nine top-15 finishes and a pair of weeks in which he was the highest-scoring receiver in the sport.
.@AllenRobinson has Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams as his number one best wide receiver duo in the NFL next season 👀 pic.twitter.com/po8RpOi6cx
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) July 9, 2025
The word “elite” gets thrown around rather carelessly in analysis these days, but it’s fitting here.
His production relative to expectation continues to move in the right direction (+3.5% in 2022, +16.5% in 2023, and +24.1% in 2024), and while a little additional risk gets introduced into his profile due to the departure of Ben Johnson, what’s the absolute worst case scenario given the connection he has shown with Jared Goff and his ability to win in a hurry (career average depth of target: 7.5 yards)?
Drafting St. Brown in the first round does not ensure you glory come winter. Any championship run requires plenty of situational luck on top of a strong roster, but if we are recapping the season in January and St. Brown is the reason your team didn’t have success, I’d be awfully surprised.
Heck, that would shock me more than if he were the next receiver to make a serious run at Antonio Brown’s NFL record of consecutive contests with at least five catches and 50 receiving yards (35 straight).
Here’s a final fun way to display the greatness of St. Brown.
- WR14 Terry McLaurin: 15.75 PPR points per game
- WR15 Modified St. Brown: 15.41 PPR PPG
- WR16 DeVonta Smith: 15.34 PPR PPG
- WR17 Ladd McConkey: 15.06 PPR PPG
- WR18 Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 14.88
Not bad company, right? Without even knowing what “Modified St. Brown” means, we can agree that being alongside McLaurin during a breakout year and McConkey during a historic rookie run is a strong position to hold.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Last season, 60 receivers averaged over 25 routes per game. It’s a pretty low bar to clear and one that most, if not all, regular fantasy assets at the position in your league will achieve in 2025. The “Modified St. Brown” point total from above is if you averaged out his worst 17 games with over 25 routes run, since the start of 2023.
If you want St. Brown, go get him. “Reaching” for Detroit’s WR1 is impossible, as he won’t be on the board when your second pick comes around.
Frank Ammirante’s Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown had another strong year last season, catching 115-of-141 targets for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns. That makes three consecutive seasons with 105-plus catches and 1,100-plus yards. Still, St. Brown is falling to the early second round because the fantasy community is worried that there are too many pass-catchers in Detroit, meaning he could lose some volume.
My counter to that is Jameson Williams is more of a deep threat, and St. Brown is the alpha in this offense. The “Sun God” has a terrific rapport with QB Jared Goff and should turn in another 100-catch season.
While former OC Ben Johnson is gone, the good news to overcoming the decline in scheme is a much more difficult schedule. Playing tougher competition means that the Lions should be forced to pass more, which bodes well for St. Brown.
I have St. Brown slightly above consensus because of his strong track record, ranking him at the end of the first round. Consider him a high-floor WR1 that stabilizes your receiver room. There’s nothing wrong with hitting a double instead of a home run on your first-rounder.
