About midway through his rookie season, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix started to take off. By the second half, he was an every-week no-doubt fantasy football starter. Now with a full year of experience under his belt, can fantasy managers trust Nix as their QB1?
Should You Draft Bo Nix in Fantasy?
When the Broncos selected Nix as the record-breaking sixth quarterback in the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, many fans and media felt it was a forced move. It’s not that Nix wasn’t good enough to be a starter. Instead, the Broncos reached for him because they needed a quarterback. Nevertheless, when you take a QB 12th overall, he kind of has to start given the alternatives.
Nix’s rookie season started pretty slowly —Â the entire first month of Nix’s career was a work in progress. He only threw for 138 yards in his NFL debut, scoring 13.0 fantasy points. From Weeks 1 to 4, Nix averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game. No one looked at him as a fantasy starter, and he was available on most waiver wires.
A switch flipped beginning in Week 5. Not only did Nix instantly become a QB1, but he became an every-week must-start QB1.
For the remainder of the regular season, Nix averaged 21.5 points per game. For context, that trailed only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
What makes Nix so valuable is that he’s more mobile than he gets credit for, but doesn’t need to rely on his rushing. In fact, five of Nix’s QB1 weekly performances came in games in which he barely did anything on the ground.
2+ minutes of Bo Nix’s arm beating defenders to windows, working closing MOF windows, working far hash concepts and launching throws downfield. pic.twitter.com/Hgu5BgEATw
— Robby (@Robby_NFL) January 10, 2025
As great as Nix was as a rookie, though, there’s still room for growth. He only earned a C+ grade in PFSN’s QB+ metric. That should improve in his sophomore year. If his play improves, so should his fantasy numbers.
Nix’s ADP is currently QB8. He goes during a part of the draft where I do not like to take quarterbacks. My general philosophy is to pay up for an elite producer or to try to find this year’s Jayden Daniels late.
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With that said, in the process of researching Nix for this very article, I’ve realized that maybe Nix should be the guy I want. He was an elite QB1 beginning in October of his rookie year. Now, he’s another year more experienced and has at least been given a moderate upgrade in weapons with the team adding Evan Engram and drafting Pat Bryant. It’s not much, but it’s an improvement over last year.
I’m not saying you need to go out of your way to draft Nix. Just bear in mind Nix typically goes 3-4 rounds after Jalen Hurts, a guy he was just as good as from Week 5 onward.
Frank Ammirante’s Bo Nix Fantasy Projection
Bo Nix shattered expectations as a rookie, throwing for 29 touchdowns and rushing for 430 yards as the Broncos surprisingly made the playoffs. This production resulted in a QB9 finish in points per game, but Nix improved as the season progressed. From Week 5 onward, Nix was QB6 in points per game.
However, this has caused the second-year quarterback to be priced as QB9, ahead of other talented passers in his draft class, such as Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Yes, Nix outproduced each of those players, but there’s a reason why they went higher in the draft.
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With improved team contexts, would it shock you to see Williams and Maye outscore Nix this year? If that’s the case, the move would be to wait 10-15 picks to go with Williams or Maye instead.
While the team context has improved with RB RJ Harvey in the backfield and TE Evan Engram as another receiving option, Nix’s cost leaves little room for profit, making him look more like a floor pick in 2025. We also can’t rule out the risk of a sophomore slump on a player who vastly exceeded expectations last year.
