Once a consensus top-five fantasy quarterback, Kyler Murray has been merely good over the past three seasons. Hopefully garnering a better rapport with Marvin Harrison Jr. in year two, should fantasy football managers be looking at the Cardinals QB as a mid-round option this season?
Kyler Murray Fantasy Outlook
I remember being all over Murray as a rookie. In 2019, averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game was pretty good. Naturally, that set him up to smash as a sophomore. Once again, I wanted all the Murray. That worked out incredibly well, as he averaged 22.4 points per game in 2020, finishing as the overall QB3.
Murray had another superb year in 2021, posting 22.2 PPG. Since then, though, he’s been unable to return to elite QB1 status.
Murray has never been a bad fantasy quarterback. Last year was his worst season, yet he still averaged 18.1 PPG. Yet, it seems as though fantasy managers view him as a perennial disappointment, likely because he created elite QB1 expectations early in his career and has failed to reach them for three straight years.
In modern fantasy football, the key to being an elite QB1 is rushing. It’s almost impossible for a non-mobile QB to get there. He would need around 5,000 yards passing and 40 touchdowns.
Murray’s career-best 2020 season is easy to explain. He ran for the most yards of his career, by far, with 819 yards. He also threw for 26 touchdowns, while rushing for 11 more. I’m more interested in 2021 because Murray managed to get close to those exact numbers despite rushing for just 423 yards and five touchdowns.
Murray’s 2021 season is an example of how much two extra games can make a difference. He played 14 games that year, which makes his totals seem more impressive in retrospect. His 5.0% touchdown rate was the best mark of his career. He averaged 270.5 passing yards per game, also the best of his career.
Most importantly, though, Murray was still rushing at a high level, averaging 6.3 attempts per game.
Murray is perceived as a rushing quarterback. He is. Well, he should be. Yet, last season, Murray barely ran, averaging a career-low 4.6 rushing attempts per game.
Most concerning is the lack of designed rush attempts. In Murray’s career-best 2020 season, he had 72 designed rushes. Only Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson had more. In 2024, Murray had just 30 designed rushes. Seven quarterbacks had more, including Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Justin Fields, all of whom were benched at various points last season.
Unsurprisingly, Murray had more scrambles in 2020, and his scramble rate was higher as well.
If Murray is going to break the 20 PPG barrier once again, he needs to not only run more, but his offensive coordinator needs to draw up more designed runs.
From a passing perspective, Murray was the same guy he’s always been last year. He averaged 7.1 yards per completion and completed 68.8% of his throws.
He needs to develop a better rapport with Marvin Harrison Jr., who was grossly misused as a rookie.
Marvin Harrison Jr. says that he has been building great chemistry with Kyler Murray.
“I feel like we should be able to complete passes with our eyes closed, that’s the goal.” pic.twitter.com/DpA5hLijpd
— NFL Notifications (@NFLNotify) May 24, 2025
As much as I want to be in on Murray, the Cardinals’ offense essentially looks the same as it did last year. Although Trey McBride serves that role just fine, Arizona still lacks a quality WR2.
Mainly, I can’t project the offense to suddenly change the way it operates — namely, more designed plays for its best receiver and more designed rushes.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Murray’s ADP is QB9, which is perfectly fair, and exactly where I have him ranked. However, he goes during a part of the draft where I’m not taking a quarterback. My approach this year is to take an elite (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts) or wait until the very end.
Murray does have the upside to break into that elite group. I just no longer have confidence he will.
Frank Ammirante’s Kyler Murray Fantasy Projection
Kyler Murray has always been an intriguing fantasy quarterback due to his rushing ability. Still, it’s hard to see the ceiling he showed back in the Kliff Kingsbury days with Drew Petzing as offensive coordinator. Under this current coaching staff, the Cardinals have become a conservative, run-heavy offense that relies on James Conner and misuses WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
We’ve seen this in the fantasy production, where Murray finished as QB12 in points per game last year. Do you want to pay for Murray at a QB8 ADP when you can wait on another rushing quarterback like Drake Maye about 20 picks later?
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
The opportunity cost on Murray is still relatively high, as you can go with players like Jayden Higgins, Jaylen Warren, and Travis Kelce at this price. Given the depth at the quarterback position, the prudent play is to pass on Murray unless you’re building a Cardinals stack.
I simply don’t trust this coaching staff right now. Expect Conner to continue stealing touchdowns from Kyler and other playmakers.
