Getting the balance right between your educated speculation and solid, reliable data can be the key to smashing your fantasy football drafts. Most stats, both surface-level and in-depth, are widely available to most players, but what fantasy managers make of those numbers can vary dramatically.
Trey McBride is 2 Fantasy Points Per Game Better Than Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers is being drafted as the clear TE1 in fantasy this year, despite Trey McBride bettering him on a per-game basis last season. The Arizona Cardinals star continued his dominance of targets, even after the arrival of “generational” rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.
Bowers was phenomenal, and this is in no way a knock on his ability; I fully expect him to be an elite fantasy tight end again in 2025. However, I expect the Las Vegas Raiders to lean more on their run game under Pete Carroll.
MORE: Why Brock Bowers’ Fantasy Draft Price Might Make the Raiders TE This Season’s Trickiest Gamble
Taking a running back with the sixth overall pick is one thing; it’s another if you don’t make him a key piece of your offense. The Raiders attempted the second-fewest rushes (tied – 380), and the fourth-most passes (635) in the NFL last season, which will undoubtedly change moving forward.
Finally, McBride’s breakout happened in 2023, meaning his performance last year wasn’t a fluke, and that he should continue to be the focal point of the Cardinals’ passing attack. Bowers’s rookie season was no fluke either, but neither was Sam LaPorta’s 2023, and he took a significant step backward last year.
Congrats to Sauce Gardner on his mega-deal.
Unrelated, here’s Trey McBride BODYING the league’s highest paid CB. pic.twitter.com/0V85trNaUO
— Johnny Venerable (@JohnnyVenerable) July 15, 2025
McBride scored just three touchdowns in 2024 and was still 0.1 fantasy points per game (FPPG) better than Bowers. Three extra touchdowns in 2025 wouldn’t be a shock, and neither would Bowers catching one less pass per game under Carroll than he did last year.
Rashid Shaheed Outperforms Chris Olave
All of the talk surrounding Chris Olave in fantasy this year is whether or not he will stay healthy. The former Ohio State standout suffered a frightening head injury against the Carolina Panthers in Week 9 last season and missed the final eight games of the season.
Rashid Shaheed had already been ruled out for the season after requiring surgery on a meniscus injury, but it was Shaheed who shone brightest when both were available. Over the five games in which both were fully healthy, Shaheed out-targeted Olave 34-28.
DEREK CARR WITH A 70-YARD DOT TO RASHEED SHAHEED FOR THE TD 😱
(via @NFL)
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 15, 2024
Shaheed also scored three receiving touchdowns over those five games, while Olave’s career single-season high is five (16 games – 2023). If Olave continues to come up short in the end zone, his fantasy ceiling will always be limited.
Shaheed is more explosive than his teammate and can do far more after the catch. That means Olave would likely have to dominate targets to better his teammate, something he wasn’t doing the last time they played together.
Factor in Olave’s concerning concussion history, and Shaheed could comfortably overtake his teammate in fantasy, despite being drafted five or six rounds later.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a Priority Waiver Add in the Opening 3 Weeks of the Season
This one may be the boldest of these predictions due to the time limit I’ve set, but I firmly believe that Marquez Valdes-Scantling will make his mark early in 2025. There is a lot of talk about rookie Tory Horton, who I like, but Valdes-Scantling was brought to the Seattle Seahawks for a reason.
The Saints traded for Valdes-Scantling in 2024 after Shaheed was ruled out for the season. He immediately inherited Shaheed’s deep-ball role and became a monster in fantasy for a brief moment.
TOUCHDOWN MVS! 🙌
His 4th TD in 4 games with the #Saints #LARvsNO | 📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/mZCh8nIMJh
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) December 1, 2024
After playing a minimal role in his first game, the two-time Super Bowl winner exploded with 109 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in his second appearance. That game was the first of a three-game spell, during which he tallied 232 receiving yards and four touchdowns, and was the WR8 in FPPG.
With Olave joining Shaheed on the sidelines, though, defenses quickly adjusted to the deep threat, and when Derek Carr was also ruled out for the year, the offense ground to a halt. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp will draw the attention of opposing defenses for Seattle, and Klint Kubiak will be sending Valdes-Scantling deep again in 2025.
The Seahawks receiver is a “my guy” in Best Ball this year and will have his moments throughout the season.
Calvin Ridley is a Top-15 Wide Receiver
The Tennessee Titans are not expected to produce fantasy gold in 2025, but one player in particular could see a significant jump in production. Calvin Ridley’s 53.3% catch rate was the lowest of all 35 receivers with at least 100 targets in 2024, much of which was down to the inaccuracy of quarterback Will Levis.
The low efficiency could also be attributed to the highest ADOT of Ridley’s career. The average depth of the receiver’s targets in 2024 was 15.3 yards downfield, a full yard further than his previous career-high from 2020.
CALVIN RIDLEY. Elite 40-yard TD grab to tie the game!
📺: #NYJvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/oqgFd24Dqi— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
That may not change this season, but Ridley will be playing with a far more accurate quarterback on an offense that should be able to move the ball more consistently. Tennessee tied the Carolina Panthers for the fewest plays per drive (5.5) in the NFL last season and was tied for the third-fewest yards per drive (26.9).
The Titans brought in some receiving talent during the offseason, but nobody should challenge Ridley for the lead receiving role. Cam Ward will find out early who he can trust, and I expect that the former Atlanta Falcons receiver will be Ward’s go-to guy from Day 1.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Despite struggling, the Titans ranked 23rd in pass attempts and total plays in 2024, which should improve with a more secure quarterback. Ridley’s 120 targets ranked 18th among receivers in 2024, but his 64 receptions were tied for 34th.
He was the WR28 in PPR leagues, but 20 extra catches, 10 more yards per game, and two extra touchdowns would have landed him at WR11. Those numbers shouldn’t be difficult for a talented alpha receiver with an improved quarterback in a more productive offense.
Zach Ertz Outperforms Travis Kelce
When claiming that the Valdes-Scantling take was my boldest prediction, I’ll admit, I had to pause. However, this year, Zach Ertz is one of the most undervalued players in fantasy football, especially in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce made it onto my list of fantasy busts for 2025.
Kelce averaged 1.8 FPPG more than Ertz did in 2024, but the two players’ differing situations tell us a lot about their potential roles this season. Ertz, for example, was playing with then-rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, and most of his fantasy production was backloaded.
That’s a promising sign, as it suggests his connection with Daniels grew as the year went on and is likely to continue into 2025. Reports from the Commanders’ camp this offseason state that the tight end has been Daniels’s favorite target. Meanwhile, Ertz’s 16 targets in the team’s playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles highlight Daniels’ trust in the veteran.
3️⃣5️⃣ DAYS UNTIL THE DRAFT
Zach Ertz was the 35th pick back in 2013 and is still Mr. Reliable heading into year 13 🙌 @ZERTZ_86 @Commanders pic.twitter.com/mvXITqNVCY
— NFL (@NFL) March 20, 2025
In the second half of the season, Kelce was the TE10 in FPPG (12.0), 0.7 FPPG behind Ertz. More worryingly for Kelce owners is that with Rashee Rice healthy in Weeks 1-3, Kelce averaged just four targets and five FPPG.
Rice will miss time in 2025 through suspension, but should also play more than the three full games he managed last year. Beyond that, a healthy Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown, rookie pass-catching back Brashard Smith, and second-year receiver Xavier Worthy will all limit Kelce’s targets.
