Everybody prides themselves on identifying and drafting the best sleepers in fantasy football drafts. However, avoiding the players that bust is arguably more critical to having a successful fantasy season. This article will identify some of the most likely bust candidates in fantasy drafts heading into the 2025 season.
Also, check out PFSN’s mock draft simulator before your fantasy drafts to determine which players you want to target for your upcoming fantasy season.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
ADP: 99.5, QB10
The last three seasons of Jared Goff’s career with Ben Johnson have been his best sustained stretch of play. During that stretch, Goff has averaged a 68.1% completion rate, 4,547.3 passing yards, 32.0 touchdowns, and 10.3 interceptions per season. Those numbers, while excellent, haven’t always translated to fantasy football.
According to fantasydata.com, Goff has just one top 12 finish among quarterbacks (minimum eight games played) since 2022 despite scoring at least 16.0 fantasy points in the last three seasons. Even then, his 19.1 fantasy points per game led him to a QB7 finish.
Jared Goff goes a PERFECT 18/18 for 292 yards and 2 TDs.#SEAvsDET pic.twitter.com/HCzoEiHf5O
— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2024
Not only will the Lions be replacing their offensive coordinator with a limited play-calling history (John Morton), but they will also be trying to overhaul their interior offensive line with two new starters, likely including a 2024 sixth-round pick (Christian Mahogany) and a second-round rookie (Tate Ratledge) at guard.
Goff doesn’t offer any rushing upside, so his current ADP (QB10) is drafting him at his ceiling in an offense with a new play caller and an inexperienced offensive line. That is a dangerous game to play.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 34.5, RB14
James Cook’s contract saga finally ended when the Bills signed him to a four-year, $48 million deal on Aug. 13. The agreement ensures that Cook will remain the lead back in Buffalo’s offense for the foreseeable future.
There are reasons to doubt Cook’s fantasy upside in 2025.
Cook finished as the RB11 in PPR points per game in 2024 (16.7) despite handling 207 carries for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns with 32 receptions (on 38 targets) for 258 yards and two touchdowns. Cook finished second among all skill players in total touchdowns (18), yet couldn’t crack the top 10 running backs due to a decrease in his overall volume, especially in the passing attack.
Buffalo’s offense deployed a situational, three-back approach in 2024 with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson each carving out roles throughout the game. Davis impressed as a rookie, which could lead to more touches in 2025. Johnson maintained a 40% snap share during Buffalo’s three playoff games with Cook and Davis healthy.
Paying Cook secures a critical piece of Buffalo’s offense, but it doesn’t mean he will see an increased role going forward. If he can’t maintain his touchdown rate in 2025, there is a good chance he finishes outside the top 12 running backs in fantasy.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: 25.5, RB12
Many expected Kyren Williams ‘ workload to decrease after he finished as the RB2 in PPR points per game (21.2) in 2023, with 228 carries for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns alongside 32 receptions for 206 yards and three touchdowns.
Instead, Williams stayed healthy in 2024 and increased his attempts (316), rushing yards (1,299), touchdowns (14), and receptions (34). Instead of remaining the RB2, Williams dropped to the RB10 in points per game (17.0). Williams’s elite usage couldn’t overcome his lack of efficiency. The veteran running back finished as the RB47 in yards per touch (4.2) and the RB32 in breakaway runs (six).
Williams is a volume-dependent rusher who gets the most rushing volume of any running back in the NFL. If anything happens to that volume, it will be difficult for him to finish as a top 10 running back for a third straight season. The Rams signaled that they could be looking for more explosive plays out of their backfield in 2025 when they drafted Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Sean McVay and the Rams love Williams and will feature him in the offense. Unfortunately, if they ever decide to distribute touches to other players and reduce his workload, much of his appeal in fantasy evaporates.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
ADP: 27.5, WR12
The 2024 season was a disaster for Tyreek Hill. The veteran wide receiver struggled through a wrist injury, a quarterback injury, and the general ineffectiveness of the Dolphins’ offense to produce his worst fantasy season since his rookie year in 2016 (12.8 PPR points per game). Hill was the WR30 among receivers who played at least eight games.
Hill finished as the WR49 in average depth of target (11.2), the WR25 in deep targets (18), the WR64 in yards per target (7.9), and the WR66 in yards per reception (11.8). He also posted the lowest yards per route run of his career (1.75).
Here Tyreek Hill appears to have forgotten that feet are not for catching. He later returned to the hands method. pic.twitter.com/UUT6HfvOAl
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 16, 2024
Things have not gone well for Hill throughout the offseason either. He has feuded with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and head coach Mike McDaniel. His name has also come up in trade rumors with the Dolphins seemingly poised to be a bad team.
Hill is going off the board as the WR12, a price that does not consider that he is a 31-year-old pass catcher in a fragile offensive system coming off a career-worst season.
Hill should be able to improve his WR30Â finish in points per game in 2024, but assuming he will return to his previous dominant form is a dangerous bet.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 62.0, WR27
Zay Flowers has been a solid wide receiver for the Baltimore Ravens since being selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Through two seasons, Flowers has averaged 112.0 targets, 75.5 receptions, 958.5 receiving yards, and 4.5 touchdowns per season.
Unfortunately, those results haven’t necessarily converted into fantasy points. Flowers has back-to-back seasons with fewer than 13.0 PPR points per game (to be fair, he’s scored above 12.0 PPG as well). He also doesn’t have a season where he’s finished inside the top 30 wide receiver scorers in PPR points per game.
Flowers has carved out a consistent role in Baltimore’s passing attack as a short-to-intermediate passing weapon who needs to win after the catch. In 2024, he finished as the WR61 in average depth of target (10.4) and the WR31 in air yards share (29.0%). Throughout his career, he has also struggled to convert his opportunities into the red zone. Flowers has caught just five of 13 end zone attempts the last two seasons.
Over the last two years, the Ravens’ passing attack has taken significant steps under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. However, they are still a team that wants to establish the run with Derrick Henry and spread the ball to their various pass catchers. Flowers hasn’t gotten the valuable targets the last two seasons, which caps his upside. There isn’t any reason to believe that will change in 2025, especially with Rashod Bateman continuing to impress in training camp.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 127.5, TE15
The Buffalo Bills drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 draft, hoping he would add another element to their passing attack. That has not been the case through his first two seasons.
Kincaid finished as the TE18 in PPR points per game in 2024 (7.8), catching 44 of 75 targets for 448 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games. However, he has struggled to separate himself as a pass catcher due to a passing attack that spreads targets across various weapons.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
More importantly, Kincaid has not been able to earn a significant role over veteran tight end Dawson Knox. In 2024, Kincaid was the TE32 in snap share (57.5%), the TE27 in routes run (255), and the TE17 in route participation (62.7%).
Kincaid has struggled to find a consistent foothold in Buffalo’s offense as a part-time contributor. That seems to be the case again in 2025, with Knox still on the roster, plus the addition of Joshua Palmer in free agency. Until Kincaid can break out of his snap share, he will be hard to trust in fantasy football.
