Fantasy Football is as much about avoiding players that are likely to underperform as it is about finding players that can meet your expectations. Here, I identify some players that I’m not expected to have many shares of for this season, given their ADP/ranking compared with my own.
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
Starting with a risky selection, David Montgomery feels like he is being overdrafted this offseason. The reason is that it’s easy to look at what Detroit has managed the past few seasons and think everything is set to repeat.
But look into all that has changed. Starting with the sidelines, the team has a new offensive coordinator and play caller with Ben Johnson (now Chicago Bears head coach) replaced by John Morton. Morton was the last offensive coordinator in 2017 for the New York Jets, a year that wasn’t exactly … dynamic on offense.
Next, the Detroit Lions previous strength on offense, it’s blockers. Often overlooked, they create the gaps to run through on offense and stop defenders from ending things in the backfield.
The Lions lost two top veterans in Frank Ragnow (retired) and Kevin Zeitler (signed with the Titans) this offseason. They are set to be replaced by a second-round rookie and a later-round selection that has struggled to get on the field. That line change has far more of an impact on Montgomery than it does on Jahmyr Gibbs, who makes gaps for himself with his speed and change of direction.
Then you need to consider his opportunity and the impact that has on his potential fantasy outlook. The stars seem to be aligning for Gibbs to have a larger role in the backfield than he has in previous seasons. If the team were to struggle, even a little bit, on offense, there are going to be fewer RedZone opportunities for Montgomery.
Current Projection for David Montgomery: 189 carries, 779 yards, and 7 TDs. 38 receptions, 287 yards, and 1 TD.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
I was in on Ladd McConkey to have a good fantasy season this year. There weren’t a lot of other receivers on the depth chart, and McConkey looked like he had taken the role of slot receiver from Keenan Allen. Then, the team brought in a player to challenge McConkey, the original slot receiver and franchise legend, Keenan Allen.
herbo to keenan 🥹 pic.twitter.com/pGLq736cC2
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) August 8, 2025
I hear what you are saying. Allen is washed. But you can’t judge him on a single season in Chicago! He didn’t hit the highs that he has shown in previous seasons with the Chargers, but he still managed to catch 70 passes for 744 yards and seven TDs.
With the relationship that Allen has with Justin Herbert, McConkey now has a real challenger for targets in this offense. As a result, I’m not as sold on McConkey taking the extra step from his rookie season that is needed for him to justify his high draft cost.
Current Projection for Ladd McConkey: 88 receptions for 1,105 yards and 6 TDs.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
It seems like the days of pushing the salary cap issues down the road have finally landed in New Orleans. The depth chart for the Saints is full of aging talent and question marks. One of the team’s most significant questions is who will be throwing the ball?
Derek Carr retired, leaving plenty of money in dead cap, and the QB room veteran (at least in terms of passes attempted) is Spencer Rattler. That’s not exactly the most positive move for Olave’s fantasy outlook. When you then factor in Olave’s struggles to be healthy and productive, I’d be happy to allow someone else to deal with the weekly struggle of knowing what to do with the veteran receiver.
Current Projection for Chris Olave: 77 receptions for 934 yards and 4 TDs.
