It took almost the entire Summer, but Keenan Allen finally found a home…his old home. Where he grew up. Allen returned to the Los Angeles Chargers, signing a one-year deal in early August. Now that Allen is on a roster, should fantasy football managers target him this season?
Keenan Allen Fantasy Outlook
Allen is one of the best receivers of the modern era. He’s been a fantasy factor for over a decade and posted seven consecutive seasons of 16+ fantasy points per game from 2017-2023.
Amazingly, Allen registered the best season of his career just two years ago, averaging 21.5 PPG. Throughout his entire career, I noted he had a skill set that would age well. That has come to fruition as Allen still remained effective even at his age-32 season.
With that said, there’s no denying Allen declined considerably in 2024. He averaged a career-worst 12.4 PPG. Allen was still fantasy relevant, finishing as a mid-WR3, but he wasn’t the low-WR1 he’s been for most of his Hall of Fame career.
f**k it, all 10,000 receiving yards in keenan’s career pic.twitter.com/n3mROtvqSZ
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 16, 2023
Now 33 years old, Allen is at an age where we see very few quality fantasy seasons. Historically, when a wide receiver shows signs of decline, he doesn’t suddenly rebound.
Allen still has something to offer the Chargers. He’s never been fast or athletic. He wins because he’s an incredible route runner and has an elite football IQ, a knack for finding holes in coverage. But should we expect him to suddenly return to form now that he’s another year older and is competing for targets with one of the best young receivers in the NFL? Probably not.
You know the phrase, “A rising tide lifts all ships.” Well, Allen certainly suffered from the opposite last season in Chicago. Caleb Williams was incredibly disappointing, and the offense was boring, uncreative, and run by guys who shouldn’t be in charge of NFL offenses. In Los Angeles, things will be better. However, it’s hard to ignore Allen’s performance last season.
The veteran receiver averaged 1.52 yards per route run, 67th in the league. His 6.1 yards per target was 97th. You can find separation metrics that indicate Allen could still get open, but if he was getting open, why wasn’t he producing? Sure, we can blame the offense or the quarterback, but it’s far riskier to assume the player didn’t decline when he’s now 33 years old.
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There’s a spot for Allen on fantasy benches, but only in specific roster constructions where you took riskier early-round players. Allen has no chance at being the Chargers’ top target. He is not a threat to Ladd McConkey. In the best case, for him, he will play mainly in the slot and push McConkey more to the outside.
I expect that Allen won’t be an every-down player. He will be second on the team in WR snaps, but he will rotate more with Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris than a younger Allen would.
Allen still deserves to be selected in fantasy drafts. There’s no sense in discussing his ADP, though, as everything that happened before he signed is meaningless. I ranked him at WR57. He’s a fine floor selection. But his production is likely something you can get on the waiver wire, and there’s certainly no significant upside here. Unless you need him to start, I’d rather take shots on higher upside players.
Dan Fornek’s Keenan Allen Fantasy Projection
The Chicago Bears’ offense was a mess, but Keenan Allen still found a way to remain relevant to fantasy despite it. Allen played in 15 games, catching 70 of 121 targets for 744 yards and seven touchdowns. Allen showcased his ability to earn targets by finding soft spots in the defense from the slot and making plays as an outside receiver. He posted his second straight season with an average depth of target of 9.0 or higher after failing to hit the mark in four of his previous five seasons.
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Allen sat in free agency until the middle of training camp, trying to find the ideal situation to win a Super Bowl. Eventually, that search led him back to the Los Angeles Chargers. Allen won’t be relied on to be the number one receiver, but he should form a solid complement with second-year receiver Ladd McConkey. In four seasons playing with Herbert, Allen averaged 135.8 targets, 95.0 receptions, 1,031.3 receiving yards, and 6.3 touchdowns per season.
Those stats are probably beyond his reach, but he should be able to carve out a role in the passing attack over rookies Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, as well as inconsistent first-round pick Quentin Johnston, early in the season. He proved in 2024 that he still has plenty left in the tank. Allen finished as the WR39 in PPR points per game in his lone season with the Bears, but his ability to beat that mark hinges on just how much the Chargers need him in the quick passing game.
