The stage is set in Montreal for one of the most exciting matchups of the week as 18‑year‑old Canadian wildcard Victoria Mboko takes on Wimbledon champion and ninth seed Elena Rybakina. Desperate to create history in front of a home crowd, Mboko’s Cinderella story has already surprised the nation. Rybakina, the seasoned Grand Slam winner, brings experience and firepower into this high‑stakes semifinal.
Mboko’s sensational campaign saw her take down World No. 1 Coco Gauff in straight sets (6‑1, 6‑4) and then dispatch Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6‑4, 6‑2 to reach her first-ever WTA 1000 semifinal on home soil. Rybakina also impressed in the quarters, when Marta Kostyuk retired even after 6‑1, 2‑1. This allowed Rybakina to advance into the last four.
Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina Match Details
Date: Aug. 7, 2025
Tournament: National Bank Open
Round: Semifinal
Venue: IGA Stadium, Montreal
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Outdoor hard
Live telecast: Tennis Channel, Fubo, ESPN+, Sky Sports
Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina Head-to-Head
The head‑to‑head between Mboko and Rybakina currently stands at 1–0 in favor of the latter, as they have met just once on the professional circuit. Their only encounter came in the round of 16 at the Washington (Citi DC) Open at the Grandstand in Washington, D.C.
The match saw Rybakina emerge victorious with a 6‑3, 7‑5 scoreline. This turned out to be a tightly fought contest that lasted approximately 1 hour and 17 minutes.
Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina Prediction
Mboko enters with steady momentum, as her 2025 record stands at 51–9 (≈73% wins) with most matches played on hard courts. This includes recent deep runs in challengers and her breakthrough in Montreal. Her game is built around aggressive baseline hitting and early ball-striking. Rybakina, on the other hand, has secured a 37‑14 overall tally in 2025, going 21‑8 on outdoor hard courts (≈69% wins). This was powered by clean ball striking and tactical solidity.
Rybakina dominates on serve, averaging 6.09 aces per match, with a 61% first‑serve in and winning ~75% of those first‑serve points, plus ~89% second‑serve in and winning nearly 49% of those points. She also saves around 65% of break points. Mboko records 3.22 aces per match, lower serve volume overall, with ace frequency in the ~52nd percentile on tour.
There’s no stopping Mboko ‼️
Victoria Mboko has reached the semis of a WTA 1000 event for the first time after beating Bouzas Maneiro 6-4, 6-2.#OBN25 pic.twitter.com/mGZDDWueoQ
— wta (@WTA) August 5, 2025
Mboko’s return aggression stands out, as she converts a high share of break points and wins a notable portion of second‑serve return points. Rybakina’s return stats are more modest; she wins roughly 36–37% of first‑serve return points and converts fewer break opportunities.
While Rybakina is likely to take one set with serve dominance, Mboko’s return fire and growing confidence tend to give her an edge. If Mboko limits double faults and manages around 64–65% first‑serve in herself, she can pressure Rybakina’s serve and extend points.
Prediction: Mboko to win in three sets
