Liz Loza is one of the best in the fantasy football business. She joined ESPN after a successful run at Yahoo and is one of the more thoughtful/innovative minds in the industry we all love.
I got to work with her at the World Wide Leader, and I promise you … she’s a better person than an analyst.
So when she asked to discuss the upcoming season in front of a microphone, it was the highlight of my offseason. On her “Facts vs. Feelings” podcast, we discussed a wide range of topics, and I encourage you to listen for the hot takes and banter.
Make sure to listen to the full episode of the podcast here. Or, you can catch the video version of the show down below.
In terms of the strategic talk, I’ve added some detail to my podcast answers below to help you feel as prepared as ever for the 2025 NFL season!
Fantasy Football: What Statistic Is Most Deceiving?
Here’s a headline for you: “fantasy points are the most deceptive stat in fantasy football”.
Stick with me here.
It’s a matter of perception. How do you define “statistic” and how do you plan on using it?
Numbers are no different than anything else. If Dexter defines a fork as a weapon and I define it as an eating utensil, we are going to look for different things, no?
A statistic can be defined as a means to tell the story of what happened or a piece of a puzzle to tell a future story.
If you’re anchoring a highlight show, the former is great. You can list the daily leaders and showcase the top name on the list via his best play.
Mission accomplished.
If you’re on the hook for predictive fantasy articles and advice sessions, that’s not going to cut it. What happened is nice to be aware of, but there are a million moving pieces that go into making those numbers come to light, and too many casual fantasy managers lose track of that.
In Week 8 last season, Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary to beat the Bears was THE play of the week. From 52 yards out at the buzzer and 25 seconds after Chicago took their first lead of the day, it deserved to be.
But for fantasy managers, it was more destructive than instructive.
That single play resulted in over 35% of Daniels’ passing points for the week. Yes, it looks good in the box score and those points count, but if it impacted your expectations moving forward, you set yourself up for failure.
Over time, the fantasy point expectancy on that pass (50+ air yards in the final minute of a game in which the QB is trailing) is -0.7 points, and Daniels’ managers got 6.1 out of it. He saved a poor fantasy week with amazing fortune, and most fantasy managers were too busy celebrating to think objectively.
The fact that he led Washington to zero touchdown drives prior and that his 37 passes netted just 274 yards (7.4 yards per attempt, exactly what Russell Wilson averaged for the season) against the third-worst YPA defense in the league was overshadowed by a once-a-season (maybe) play.
It doesn’t always work this cleanly, but Daniels was QB21 over the next three weeks, not once reaching 210 passing yards and battling inefficiencies.
Is that a cherry-picked example to prove my point? Of course it is, but the larger point remains: the “fantasy points” column in your league tells a story that happened and should be used as such. If you want to brag about being the highest scoring team through the first half of the season, have at it.
As long as you understand that, by itself, that doesn’t mean you’re any more likely than anyone else in your league to lead the rest of the way.
Fantasy Football: What Statistic Does The Public Overvalue?
Tied to the example above (overvaluing positive plays), the public places too much weight on negative plays. This is a natural reaction, and that’s fine. Feel the emotion. Let it burn. My therapist says that letting those negative thoughts build up inside of you is bad.
Just don’t let it impact your decision-making until it’s inspected further.
Bad plays happen for a reason, and the cause could be problematic moving forward, but the actual play itself isn’t the end of the world, as it typically speaks to aggression. Whether it is a running back fighting for extra yards and fumbling or a quarterback trying to fit the ball into a tight window and being intercepted, when your player records a play that loses you points, it very often is because he was put in a spot to give you positive points.
Let’s talk about interceptions.
From strictly a math perspective, I don’t sweat them at all. An interception in most leagues results in a loss of two points.
So what?
It costs you two points, but it stands to put the game in a more pass-heavy script. Over the past five seasons, the team has dropped back to pass on 64.9% of their offensive snaps when trailing, compared to 50.6% when leading. For the sake of evaluating the impact of those extra opportunities, fantasy viable QBs in 2024 averaged 0.53 fantasy points per dropback.
That means that, if the interception results in an additional four dropbacks, you’re getting the lot points (and then some) back.
In today’s NFL, many quarterbacks can make up two points on a single run. In the grand scheme of things, two points aren’t a big deal. Not all interceptions are created equal — a pick in the end zone costs you more than just the points, wiping out a potential touchdown, while a pick-six gives your QB the ball back with a chance to rebound quickly. So instead of stressing over every mistake, it’s usually smarter to embrace aggressive play.
In 2024, seven of the top-12 scoring quarterbacks threw 10+ interceptions, a high figure when you consider the impact of rushing (and thus, fewer pass attempts) on the position. Drill down even further, and you’ll notice that four of the top-15 QB scoring games from Weeks 12-18 last season featured a signal caller who threw multiple interceptions.
A mistake is just that. A mistake. It’s not the hope and, in certain situations, will net you more fantasy production than had the error never occurred.
Fantasy Football: What Statistic Does The Public Undervalue?
Embrace the idea of betting. The act of gambling on sports isn’t for everyone and never will be, but the art of data gathering is for everyone who intends on competing in fantasy sports at a high level, and there’s no denying the value that comes from the Wise Guys.
The sportsbooks are smarter than you. They are smarter than I am. They have far more on the line than we do when they are setting their lines (spreads, totals, and props), and they are loaded with resources. If you’re questioning this, look at the size of your house and the size of your local casino.
Information is power, and they supply you with free information, so why not use it? Last season, 30 of the top-50 fantasy games came from a player on a team that was favored to wi,n and 35 of those 50 performances came in a game that was expected to clear 45 total points.
Betting on sports is hard. Betting on the information that sportsbooks are giving you isn’t.
How Do You Stay Ahead of the Curve?
The “curve” in question here is a moving target. It’s referring to the fantasy industry as a whole, and there’s no denying the advancements within the industry over the past five years, never mind the past 25.
So, the first step is understanding where the “curve” is. What are the generally accepted trains of thought? What stats have moved from my nerdy spreadsheets into the mainstream? Where does the industry have holes?
Evaluating the curve these days is more art than science. Being ahead of the curve is different for me than it is for you. You want to beat John from accounting or Aunt Suzie. Maybe you’re taking your talents into the DFS streets, embracing weekly variance differently.
Those are two very different curves, and my curve is still different: I’m asked questions from all walks of life this time of year, and that means my “curve” is reliant on who I am talking with. This podcast with the great Loza is catered to a more casual fanbase, and in those circles, my “curve” revolves around evaluating what has changed.
The ESPN ecosystem is largely aware of the Christian McCaffrey situation and the greatness of Josh Allen. But what about the impact of changing systems for Evan Engram or how to distribute the valuable touches in Los Angeles now that Davante Adams is in town? What does suspension uncertainty do to the offenses in Minnesota and Kansas City?
Staying ahead of the curve, for me, used to mean being smarter than the field. It used to mean having data that others didn’t and leveraging it as best I could.
Now, everyone has information, and if they don’t, they know how to ask AI to grab it for them. My curve is now dealing with uncertainty. It’s about getting creative and solving inefficiencies that my competition may not know exist. It’s about taking what people “know” and adding detail to it, either by flipping it on its head or adding layers of information that contextualize the shared data.
It’s different now than it has been in the past, and it’ll be different in another 12 months, if not another 12 weeks. The curve itself is a moving target, but my desire to hunt it down isn’t going anywhere, and that’s how I stay in the driver’s seat.
