Kyle Pitts’ fantasy football owners know the feeling well: one week you’re celebrating a breakout performance, the next you’re wondering if you should have drafted someone else entirely.
The Atlanta Falcons’ tight end has become fantasy football’s ultimate Wild Card, and recent PFSN trading data reveals just how divided the community remains on his 2025Â outlook.
What Is Fueling the Kyle Pitts Trading Sentiment Rollercoaster?
PFSN users have been anything but consistent in their evaluation/opinion of Pitts this offseason. May brought overwhelming optimism, with 72.7%Â of trades in PFSN’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer involving Pitts seeing our user on the acquisition side of the transaction.
That bullish sentiment crashed hard in June as that rate dropped to just 44.8% as doubts crept back in. July? A rebound of course, with his trade-for rate shifting to 66.1%, suggesting fantasy managers are again buying into the potential breakout narrative.
This volatility reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding Pitts heading into his fifth NFL season.
The former fourth-overall pick has shown flashes of the elite production that made him a consensus top-three tight end in dynasty formats not long ago, but consistency has remained elusive. His career has been marked by coaching changes, a quarterback carousel, and an Atlanta offense that has struggled to maximize his unique skill set.
The recent uptick in desire to pick up shares of Pitts likely stems from renewed optimism about the Falcons’ offensive direction under head coach Raheem Morris and the potential for Michael Penix Jr. to thrive.
Fantasy managers who missed the premium tight end options during drafts may view Pitts as their best chance to land difference-making production.
Why Could the Michael Penix Jr.-Kyle Pitts Connection Change Everything?
While the sample size remains frustratingly small, the early data on Pitts’ connection with Penix offers genuine reasons for optimism. When the quarterback was under center last season as a rookie, 20% of Pitts’ targets came in the end zone, compared to just 9.4%Â with Kirk Cousins calling the shots.
More telling is the route-level data: Pitts ran 2.8% of his routes in scoring position with Penix, nearly double the 1.6% rate he saw with Cousins.
MICHAEL PENIX JR. WITH A DART TO KYLE PITTS ON 4TH & GOAL TO TIE THE GAME 🤯 😱
WHAT A TIME FOR THE ROOKIE’S FIRST NFL TD 🔥
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/y8FQOUc3Dw— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 30, 2024
These numbers suggest Penix may be more willing to target Pitts in high-value situations, potentially unlocking the touchdown upside that has been maddeningly absent from his game. Pitts has scored just 10 touchdowns across 61 career games, a frustratingly low total for a player with his athletic profile and draft pedigree.
The caveat is that Penix’s limited playing time makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. However, the early indicators align with what many evaluators saw in Penix during his college career at Washington: a quarterback unafraid to challenge defenses vertically and attack the middle of the field where Pitts does his best work.
Age and Opportunity Remain on Pitts’ Side
Perhaps the most compelling argument for Pitts lies in a simple comparison that puts his career trajectory in perspective. At 24 years old, he’s 19 months older than Tyler Warren, the Penn State tight end selected 14th overall in this year’s draft.
Despite being drafted 40 picks earlier than where Pitts currently sits in fantasy ADP, Warren’s profile for the upcoming season is far from perfect.
This age comparison highlights how much runway Pitts still has for development. Tight ends historically take longer to reach their peak production in the NFL, with many of the position’s most prominent stars not hitting their stride until their mid-to-late twenties.
Pitts has the athletic tools and situational opportunity that most players at his position can only dream of.
EXCLUSIVE: Falcons WR Ray-Ray McCloud III Boldly Claims Atlanta Can ‘Go All the Way to the Super Bowl’
The Falcons invested significant draft capital in Pitts for a reason, and with a new coaching staff looking to establish its identity, utilizing a still-raw, talented pass catcher should be a priority.
WR Drake London is trending toward alpha status, which could further open up room for Pitts to operate. He’s quickly running out of excuses, and 2025 could prove to be a critical year not just for his fantasy managers but for his future with the franchise.
Fantasy managers eyeing Pitts for 2025 are essentially betting on talent, opportunity, and the law of averages finally working in his favor. After three seasons of underwhelming production following a standout rookie campaign, he’s priced at a point where even moderate improvement could yield significant fantasy returns.
Sometimes the best investments are the ones everyone else has given up on, especially when the underlying fundamentals remain as strong as they do with Pitts.
