The Big 12 Conference is one of the most competitive in the country, with multiple teams capable of challenging for the title. Will you need a degree in tie-breaking procedures again this fall? Our 2025 Big 12 power rankings break down the runners and riders, contenders and pretenders, ahead of the action starting.
16) Oklahoma State Cowboys
However you paint it, the 2024 season was a catastrophe for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. A rocky offseason of questionable stances from head coach Mike Gundy gave way to an on-field product that graded 14th in the Big 12 by PFSN College Offense+(74.36), 15th in College Defense+ (68.88), and 11th in OL+ (78.47), resulting in a first losing campaign since 2005.
Gundy made some moves this offseason to address the issues of last fall, including bringing in Kyran Duhon to add a pass rush presence to upgrade the defense. However, an unproven quarterback room, an offensive line likely to be made up primarily of FCS transfers, and the 31st-toughest strength of schedule in the nation could make for another rough year.
15) Houston Cougars
Year 1 of the Willie Fritz era with the Houston Cougars didn’t match expectations. Last fall, the program had the second-lowest graded offense (69.21) and offensive line (71.84) in the Big 12. To address the issue, the program added Connor Weigman and Dean Connors, and the latter should establish himself as a legitimate weapon in the conference during the 2025 season.
The Cougars have one of the easiest strength of schedules in the conference, which, combined with the offensive improvements, could facilitate an in-season rise in our Big 12 power rankings. That said, the defense lost a ton of talent from a unit that was the fifth graded unit in the conference (79.37) a year ago, including Big-12 interception-leader AJ Haulcy.
14) West Virginia Mountaineers
After several seasons of mediocrity under Neal Brown, the West Virginia Mountaineers return to a familiar well to try and compete in the Big 12. Rodriguez compiled a 60-26 record the first time around in Morgantown, and hopes are high that he can return the program to the Sugar Bowl, double-digit-win campaigns enjoyed in the mid-2000s.
However, an expectation level needs to be set. It’s easy to forget that amid his success at West Virginia, Rodriguez opened his first stint with a 3-8 record. He doesn’t have a quarterback capable of running his up-tempo offense like he did with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks, with Nicco Marchiol recording negative scramble EPA in two games’ worth of action in 2024.
Once a calling card of the program, the defense graded last in the Big 12 a year ago (67.05), and while the likes of Jimmori Robinson and Fred Perry should become household names after transfers from Group of Five programs, there are enough question marks remaining to have genuine cause for concern for the Mountaineers ahead of the 2025 college football campaign.
13) Arizona Wildcats
2024 was a rude awakening for the Arizona Wildcats. They slipped from a Pac-12 frontrunner and 11th-ranked team in the final AP poll to a bottom dweller in the Big 12 with just four wins. Meanwhile, they ranked in the bottom five of the conference for PFSN Offense+ (75.41), Defense+ (70.91), and OL+ (73.22), with quarterback Noah Fifita sitting last among all returning quarterbacks to the Big 12 in our QB+ metric (74.1, C).
Fifita loses his go-to wide receiver, but Brent Brennan has at least tried to change things up for 2025. He brought in Kris Hutson and Luke Wysong to share the passing game load, while adding Ismail Mahdi gives the Wildcats a legitimate all-purpose back. However, a defense that allowed 31.8 ppg didn’t receive much of an overhaul ahead of the 25th-hardest schedule.
12) UCF Knights
Are the UCF Knights about to make that age-old mistake of returning to your ex in the hope you can rekindle once-held passions while the reality proves something far from romantic?
Scott Frost navigated the program through unprecedented success, and he’s back to replace Gus Malzahn, who couldn’t provide the program with any success in the Big 12. It’s worth pointing out that Frost had fewer wins in his final four years at Nebraska combined than in 2017 with the Knights.
While the coaching personnel changed, the on-field product will also look substantially different in 2025. As many as 17 transfer portal recruits could start for UCF this fall, headlined by Jaden Nixon and former Pitt pass rusher Sincere Edwards.
At the same time, projected starting quarterback Dylan Rizk left in the spring window, leaving Tayven Jackson, Jacurri Brown, and Cam Fancher to battle for QB1 honors. Meanwhile, their schedule features road trips to Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU, and Kansas State — which is suboptimal for the Knights.
11) Cincinnati Bearcats
Scott Satterfield added two wins to the 2023 total last season, but can the Cincinnati Bearcats now take the next step into becoming a competitive force in the Big 12?
Dontay Corleone’s return should be a significant boost to a defense that was far from the worst in the conference a year ago (76.98) and who got an upgrade at cornerback with the capture of Coastal Carolina Chanticleers standout Matthew McDoom.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby brings his dual-threat qualities back under center for the Bearcats and is arguably one of the more underrated passers in the conference. Cincinnati added a trio of eye-catching wide receivers from the portal to aid an offense that finished 12th in the Big 12 for PFSN Offense+ grade (77.80).
The schedule avoids reigning champions Arizona State, but road trips to Kansas and Utah aren’t easy, and neither are matchups with Iowa State, Baylor, and BYU. The PFSN strength of schedule projects a six-win ceiling for the program. It’s another step in the right direction, but perhaps not one big enough.
10) Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas Jayhawks were one quarter of football away from ending the 2024 campaign with five wins in six games. Lance Leipold’s team struggled to open the campaign. Still, it took down three ranked opponents in a second-half-of-the-season salvage operation — a testament to the strength of Kansas’ schedule, having faced the third-highest opponent win percentage in the FBS last fall.
Ordinarily, that would be the basis for excitement and trigger talk about building momentum. While there is some of that buzz due to the return of quarterback Jalon Daniels, the departure of program-leading rusher Devin Neal hurts the offense substantially. Meanwhile, the loss of several defensive dynamos could spell a tough season, especially with road trips to Lubbock and Ames on the schedule.
9) TCU Horned Frogs
The 2025 TCU Horned Frogs roster is more than capable of competing for a Big 12 Championship this fall. Quarterback Josh Hoover is the highest-graded returning quarterback in the conference, after registering an 83.1 (B) grade that placed him 11th in the country a year ago.
A picture of pocket-passing perfection, Hoover has the arm talent to lead this TCU offense to great heights, especially with the return of Eric McAlister to the roster.
However, the Frogs’ quarterback can only influence the offense so much, and a unit that only received a 79.97 PFSN Offense+ grade last fall still has some significant question marks handing over it.
Complicating TCU’s projections somewhat is a strength of schedule that is comfortably the most challenging in the conference and the sixth-most difficult in the country. You might think they are positioned low in our Big 12 power rankings, but a seven-win campaign might be the ceiling here.
8) BYU Cougars
Offseason uncertainty hangs over the BYU Cougars. After coming close to the Big 12 Championship Game a year ago, Kalani Sitake’s program should be gathering steam heading into the 2025 campaign. However, less than two months before the season starts, the Cougars are faced with a quarterback controversy, with Jake Retzlaff reported to be on his way out.
The replacement options cap the Provo program’s positioning in our Big 12 power rankings. McCae Hillstead and Treyson Bourguet are the likely protagonists, especially with the transfer portal currently short on replacement quarterback options. We could see a reliance on the ground game, with LJ Martin grading as the top returning running back in the conference (81.74).
The Cougars had the fourth-highest graded defense in the Big 12 a year ago (80.92), and the return of juggernaut linebacker duo Jacky Kelly and Isaiah Glasker is important to a repeat of that success. However, they lost some talent up front, adding another layer of uncertainty for the program, which could inhibit their ability to climb up our Big 12 power rankings this season.
7) Colorado Buffaloes
Ruling out a Deion Sanders-led team before they’ve even set foot on the field isn’t the wisest thing to do. Coach Prime thrives on proving doubters wrong, and the program’s 2024 campaign is the ultimate proof of his ability to defy expectations.
Substantial change has become part-and-parcel of his approach to the transfer portal, and while this team lacks the complete transformation we’ve seen in previous seasons, there is enough overhaul — especially on offense — to take a wait-and-see approach to their place in our Big 12 power rankings.
That extends to every facet of the roster. If we see the 2023 version of new quarterback Kaidon Salter (who has yet to be named the starter), the Buffaloes should be in title game contention. Yet, a repeat of a lackluster 2024 campaign could see Colorado struggle offensively, even behind a completely reworked offensive line (a unit that graded last in the Big 12 a year ago).
A quarterback competition, a challenging schedule, and the loss of Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter have the potential to hamstring Colorado this season.
6) Texas Tech Red Raiders
While this might seem like a lowly ranking for the Texas Tech Red Raiders, it’s a preseason assessment tinged with a hint of reservation after the program didn’t quite meet high expectations a year ago.
Under Joey McGuire, Texas Tech has become one of the college football outfits that have routinely won the offseason — both recruiting and the portal — but need to put it all together in the fall.
McGuire paid particular attention to a defense that allowed 34.8 points per game in 2024, rebuilding the entire defensive front in the portal. David Bailey and Romello Height should eat off the edge with Skyler Gill-Howard and Lee Hunter attracting attention inside, while Cole Wisniewski should marshal the secondary.
5) Baylor Bears
After the Baylor Bears opened their 2024 Big 12 campaign with four consecutive losses (2-4 overall to start the year), Dave Aranda was an early head coach hot seat candidate. However, they rallied down the stretch, turning over all but one (TCU) of their final six Big 12 opponents by more than one score. A lot of the talent that led that resurgence returns for the 2025 campaign.
Excitement around Baylor begins with quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who might be the long-shot Heisman Trophy contender no one is talking about enough. He’s a pocket passer-sized signal-caller with the power and athleticism to do severe damage on the ground, who is the second-highest graded (82.9, B-) returning quarterback in the Big 12.
Selling out to prevent Robertson only opens up the game for Bryson Washington, a talented rusher with game-changing ability.
4) Kansas State Wildcats
After being ranked in the AP Poll Top 25 for most of last fall, the Kansas State Wildcats’ season fell away from them down the stretch, losing three of their final four games and putting them out of Big 12 contention.
Only one of those opponents is on their 2025 schedule, and despite some potential banana skins (at Utah, at Baylor, at Kansas), Chris Klieman’s team starts 2025 as the favorite to take the conference crown, according to DraftKings Sportsbook’s latest odds.
Much of that faith comes from the return of Avery Johnson, who contributed over 3,000 total yards and 32 touchdowns last fall. They also have speedy running back Dylan Edwards and transfer wide receiver Jerand Bradley as offensive weapons.
Meanwhile, there is plenty of returning defensive production on the roster, and national championship-winning pedigree in transfer linebacker Gabe Powers.
3) Utah Utes
2024 was far from the inaugural season that the Utah Utes expected to produce in the Big 12. A 5-7 campaign that matched the worst of Kyle Whittingham’s tenure sent a shockwave through Salt Lake City. A carousel at the quarterback position didn’t help, and changes on the offensive side of the ball fuel optimism about what the 2025 campaign could hold for the Utes.
The appointment of Jason Beck as quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator brings an exciting, uptempo offense to the fore at Utah, a year after they ranked last in the conference with a 69.05 (D+) graded unit. Devon Dampier, fresh off leading all FBS quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns, gives the Utes a dynamic dual-threat to lead the program this fall.
Lost in the overall record a year ago was that Utah, true to the identity that led to successive Pac-12 titles not that long ago, had an extremely stingy defense. The Utes led the Big 12 in PFSN Defense+ grade (85.53, B), and return many of the components that contributed to that performance.
It all has to come together for the program against the backdrop of a top-25 strength of schedule, but there is genuine title potential in this team.
2) Iowa State Cyclones
The Iowa State Cyclones came up one win short of a Big 12 title last fall but are well-positioned to challenge atop the conference once again. The loss of the WR duo of Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins to the NFL is a tough pill to swallow. Still, Matt Campbell landed Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF) from the portal as weapons for quarterback Rocco Becht.
The Cyclones quarterback should be considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender, and his “leave it all on the field” style always gives you the impression that Iowa State is never out of a game.
We’ll see the Farmageddon rivalry in Week 0, which should provide us with an early indication of the program’s credentials for a title tilt — as will the Nov. 1 Big 12 title rematch with Arizona State.
1) Arizona State Sun Devils
The Arizona State Sun Devils shocked the college football world a year ago, but you better believe they’re not a flash-in-the-pan, one-and-done outfit. Kenny Dillingham has reset the culture in Tempe, and the on-field product is reaping the rewards of a team that is brought in away from the glare of game day.
Losing Cam Skattebo stings an offense that earned the second-highest PFSN Offense+ grade in the Big 12 a year ago (83.64), there is no escaping that fact. However, Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson return as one of the top QB/WR tandems in the country, and Army transfer running back Kanye Udoh is a bruiser. Leavitt had the fourth-highest PFSN QB+ grade in the Big 12 a year ago.
It’s easy to focus on the offense, but Arizona State also returns a lot of talented playmakers on defense, including a particularly nasty secondary. In landing former Eastern Michigan Eagles kicker Jesus Gomez, they also made some special teams moves — an area with struggles last season. Terrifyingly, this team might actually be more complete than a year ago.
