Four years after being selected fourth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, Kyle Pitts remains one of fantasy football’s most polarizing players. The Atlanta Falcons’ tight end has consistently underwhelmed since his promising rookie campaign, leaving managers wondering if the former Florida standout will ever fulfill his immense potential. With a full year of Michael Penix Jr. under center, 2025 could represent Pitts’ final opportunity to prove he belongs among the elite fantasy TEs.
Kyle Pitts Decline from Rookie Sensation to Fantasy Disappointment
Pitts burst onto the scene in 2021 with a historic rookie campaign that saw him become just the second tight end in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards as a first-year player. His 1,026 yards ranked third among all tight ends that season, establishing him as a seemingly elite talent despite managing just one touchdown. The performance earned him TE11 status in fantasy points, setting expectations that have proven impossible to meet.
The trajectory shifted dramatically in 2022 when a Week 11 knee injury derailed what had already been a disappointing sophomore season playing with Marcus Mariota. The torn MCL injury appears to have had lasting effects beyond the initial recovery period.
Prior to the injury, Pitts averaged 6.2 targets per game with seven games of 70-plus yards across his first 27 career games. Since returning from injury, those numbers have dropped to 4.8 targets per game, with just four games exceeding 70 yards in 34 contests.
The 2024 season represented another step backward despite playing all 17 games. Pitts managed career full-season lows in both receptions (47) and receiving yards (602), though he did set a new career high with four touchdowns. His 12.8 yards per reception ranked fourth among qualifying tight ends, suggesting the big-play ability remains intact when opportunities arise.
Environmental Factors Limiting Pitts’ Production
Much of Pitts’ recent struggles can be attributed to Atlanta’s offensive environment rather than individual regression. The 2024 Falcons fielded what PFF characterized as “the NFL’s premier tight end-unfriendly offensive environment,” with quarterback Kirk Cousins struggling to execute the play-action passing game that typically benefits tight ends.
OMG KYLE PITTS TD!!!
📺: #ATLvsWAS on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/8sE8kkub9Y— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2024
The numbers tell a stark story of misutilization. Pitts earned just four play-action targets in 2024, marking the first time he failed to reach at least 23 such targets in a season. This represents egregious misuse of an elite tight end, considering Pitts ranks sixth in PFF receiving grade (92.5) on play-action targets from 2021-2023 among qualifying players.
His first-read target rate has steadily declined from 16% in 2022 to 12.3% in 2023 and just 7.8% in 2024. This suggests Atlanta’s offensive scheme has increasingly marginalized Pitts as a primary receiving option, relegating him to a complementary role behind other skill position players.
The Michael Penix Jr. Factor
The most significant development for Pitts’ 2025 outlook involves the transition from Cousins to second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The limited sample size with Penix provides both hope and concern for fantasy managers. In three games as the starter, Pitts caught seven passes for 66 yards and one touchdown, hardly inspiring numbers on the surface.
However, Penix was far more effective than Cousins. The young quarterback’s skill set appears better suited to maximize Pitts’ talents, particularly in the play-action passing game, where the tight end has historically excelled.
Penix’s installation as the starter should theoretically lead to increased play-action usage, which could unlock Pitts’ ceiling. Among tight ends with at least 35 play-action targets from 2021-2023, Pitts ranks first in yards per reception (16.2) and fifth in total play-action targets (85).
Analyzing the Current Fantasy Landscape
Despite the disappointing recent production, Pitts’ overall body of work since entering the league paints a more nuanced picture. Among tight ends since 2021, he ranks in the top 10 in targets, receiving yards, and first-down catches while finishing in the top 16 in receptions, fantasy points, and fantasy points per game.
His seasonal finishes of TE11 (2021), TE20 (2022, injury-shortened), TE15 (2023), and TE15 (2024) represent consistent mid-range production rather than the complete bust narrative often portrayed. While these results fall short of top-five expectations, they demonstrate Pitts has maintained some semblance of fantasy relevance despite suboptimal circumstances.
The 24-year-old’s physical tools remain intact, as evidenced by his 12.8 yards per reception in 2024, which ranked fourth among qualifying tight ends. His ability to stretch the field vertically gives him a higher ceiling than most players at the position, particularly if Atlanta’s offensive environment improves.
The Verdict on Pitts’ 2025 Fantasy Value
Pitts enters 2025 as perhaps the ultimate boom-or-bust fantasy tight end. His current ADP reflects the market’s skepticism, creating potential value for managers willing to bet on a bounce-back season. The combination of a new quarterback, established talent, and historically favorable play-action metrics suggests the foundation exists for improved production.
However, four years of underwhelming results have rightfully tempered expectations. Fantasy managers should view Pitts as a high-upside TE2 with TE1 potential rather than a reliable weekly starter. His ceiling remains among the highest at the position, but the likelihood of him reaching it is not particularly great, and the floor has proven frustratingly low.
The 2025 season represents a critical juncture for both Pitts and the fantasy managers who continue to believe in his talent. With Penix under center and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson entering his second year, the pieces could finally align for the breakout season that has remained tantalizingly out of reach. However, given what we’ve seen in the past three seasons, it’s hard to recommend betting on it.
