It’s abundantly clear that Sean Payton was not thrilled with his running back room last season. This year, the Denver Broncos completely overhauled their backfield, spending a second-round pick on RJ Harvey and signing former Chargers and Ravens RB JK Dobbins. With those two set to handle the vast majority of touches, what kind of fantasy football value can Dobbins provide?
J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Outlook
Every year, plenty of players change teams. Most players find new homes during the peak of free agency, which is in the middle of March. Dobbins couldn’t find a job until June and had to settle for a backup role behind a rookie second-rounder.
On the surface, this may look like a bad thing. Dobbins is coming off a really strong season in which he totaled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 13 games and averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game. How come the Chargers moved on so easily, and no one wanted to sign him?
The other side of the coin is that Dobbins was biding his time and waiting for the ideal spot. Backing up Harvey is not the best thing for his fantasy value, but serving as the clear RB2 in one of the most running back-friendly offenses has to be viewed positively.
Sean Payton has had the benefit of some amazing receiving backs over the years. Neither Harvey nor Dobbins is Darren Sproles or Alvin Kamara. Yet, regardless of who Payton had in his backfield, his offenses have always targeted the running back position.
Dobbins is a trusted veteran. Most importantly, he’s a great pass blocker.
J.K. Dobbins had the 4th-highest pass-blocking grade among RBs in 2024. Javonte Williams was right behind him
Sean Payton gave Williams a 54% snap share last season
RJ Harvey, on the other hand, was graded as one of the worst pass-blocking RBs in CFB last year
Dobbins SZN? 🧐 https://t.co/7jXJrmAcu1
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) July 4, 2025
Since 2013, the lowest target share a Payton backfield has seen is 20%. Last season, among QBs with at least 200 pass attempts, Bo Nix ranked sixth in RB target share at 20.46%. In 2023, Russell Wilson was first at 29.53%.
Harvey is going to be the starter and see plenty of targets on early downs, but we could be looking at Dobbins in clear passing down situations. Just because he’s good at pass blocking doesn’t mean he will always be asked to block. Simply having Dobbins out there allows him to run routes, which helps his fantasy value.
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Dobbins wasn’t particularly special last season. His 4.7 yards per touch and 19% evaded tackles per touch rate were both 34th in the league. His 3.22 yards created per touch were 44th. So, how did Dobbins manage 4.6 yards per carry? It appears he was largely a product of the Chargers’ excellent run-blocking offensive line.
Dobbins averaged 2.0 yards before contact last season. That ranked ninth in the league among running backs with at least 100 carries.
Of course, talent matters. Last season with the Broncos, Jaleel McLaughlin averaged 2.1 yards before contact, while Javonte Williams was at 1.1. A high yards before contact isn’t necessarily indicative of a good running back. It could just be a running back taking advantage of favorable running situations, which frequently happens with backups, as defenses aren’t necessarily expecting runs.
With Dobbins backing up Harvey, though, we could see something similar. Dobbins still showed signs of life last season.
8 minutes of JK Dobbins highlights to start your day off the right way pic.twitter.com/9ZbyFor9lo
— Tyler🐴 (@HighAsTy) June 11, 2025
Dobbins’ ADP sits at RB40. He’s definitely one of the most expensive backups, but we’re still talking about the fourth running back on your roster. He has a proven track record and the ideal combination of possible standalone RB3 value with injury contingent upside.
I have Dobbins ranked as my RB35, which is slightly above consensus. Once all of the guys with clear weekly roles are gone, Dobbins is definitely someone I’m looking to draft as my RB3 or RB4.
Dan Fornek’s J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Projection
Injuries robbed us of seeing the best version of J.K. Dobbins, but 2024 showed he can still have some value in fantasy football. Dobbins played 13 games for the Los Angeles Chargers and carried the ball 195 times for 905 yards and nine touchdowns while adding 32 receptions (on 38 targets) for 153 yards. He finished as the RB18 in PPR points per game (14.8) with five top 10 running back finishes, three of which were in the top five.
Of course, Dobbins couldn’t completely avoid the injury bug with the Chargers, but he did avoid the season-ending injuries he had suffered in years prior. His solid 2024 season earned him a one-year, $2.74 million contract with the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos drafted UCF running back R.J. Harvey in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft, so at best, Dobbins will once again find himself in a timeshare situation. Unfortunately, unlike his situation with the Chargers, this time it seems unlikely that Dobbins will get the valuable pass-catching role without an injury.
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The Broncos have an ascending offense with a second-year quarterback (Bo Nix) and a head coach who is known to get the most out of multiple running backs in the backfield. As long as Dobbins is healthy, he will have a role on the Broncos. For fantasy, it is safer to treat him as a FLEX-level player with RB2 upside if an injury clears a larger path to touches for him.
