The Minnesota Vikings were frequently in the headlines this NFL offseason. They moved on from the Kirk Cousins era by drafting a franchise quarterback and signing Sam Darnold. They also rebuilt their defense and rewarded productive veterans with big contracts.
It all sets up for a big season in Minnesota. Here are five bold predictions for the Vikings in 2024.
5 Bold Predictions for the Minnesota Vikings This Season
Sam Darnold Will Pass for 4,000 Yards
NFL quarterbacks passing for 4,000 yards is certainly not a novel accomplishment. Since 2020, no fewer than nine quarterbacks have reached that threshold each season, including 12 instances that very season.
Vikings fans are used to it, too. Cousins passed for 4,000 yards in four of his six seasons as the team’s starter, and he was on pace to reach the milestone last year until he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury.
It is unchartered territory for Darnold, though. The closest he’s been was in 2019 when he played and started in 13 games for the New York Jets, passing for 3,024 yards on 441 attempts. That season, Darnold’s top pass catcher was Jamison Crowder; the second-leading receiver on the squad was running back Le’Veon Bell.
Darnold’s 2024 supporting cast is far superior and includes arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson, as well as a strong No. 2 in Jordan Addison. Additionally, the Vikings added Aaron Jones this offseason, a skilled receiver out of the backfield. Plus, Darnold should have T.J. Hockenson back in the fold once the team returns from its Week 6 bye.
Dallas Turner Will Set Vikings Rookie Sack Record
The Vikings have a proud history of pass rushers, dating back to the Purple People Eaters and continuing into the modern era with the likes of Chris Doleman, John Randle, Kevin Williams, Jared Allen, and, most recently, Danielle Hunter.
It appears they’re about to add to that history with Dallas Turner.
The big news on draft night this past spring was the Vikings’ decision to select a franchise quarterback — J.J. McCarthy — at No. 10 overall. But it was only moments later when Minnesota made another big splash by trading up to select Turner at pick 17.
It was a splashy move for the Vikings not only because of the draft capital it required to move up far enough to get Turner but also because many believed he was the best pass rusher in the class. On top of that, Minnesota was aggressive in free agency by adding two top-notch pass rushers in Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard.
Nevertheless, when a player that good is available that late in the first round, you just have to pounce.
While Turner may not open the season as a starter, he has the talent and array of rush moves to be a threat right out of the gate, especially on passing downs.
The Vikings’ single-season rookie record for sacks is 11.0, set by Keith Millard in 1985. It very well could be broken in 2024.
Will Reichard Won’t Miss an Extra Point, Will Lead NFL in Field-Goal Percentage
When it comes to the Vikings and kickers, life is just cruel.
Gary Anderson’s miss in the NFC title game after the 1998 season, Blair Walsh from 27 yards against Seattle in the Wild Card round, cutting Daniel Carlson two weeks into his career only to see him thrive with another team immediately after — the list goes on.
Since the NFL moved the extra point back in 2015, the Vikings rank dead last in extra-point percentage at 89.0%. They are the only sub-90% team in the NFL during that span.
Minnesota is also cursed when it comes to field goals, as Vikings kickers in that same span rank 28th in the NFL at 82.1%. Now, however, they may be in position to solve their kicker conundrum for the long term.
The Vikings used a sixth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to select Will Reichard, a standout at Alabama for four seasons who enters the NFL as the all-time NCAA FBS scoring leader.
It took Reichard all of one week in training camp to win his position battle.
In the nine seasons since the NFL moved the extra point back, there have been multiple perfect seasons every year except in 2020, when there was just one. In 2023, eight teams were perfect on extra-point tries.
Reichard is poised to make Minnesota one of those perfect teams for the first time in the new era. Just as importantly, he has the pedigree to pull up the Vikings’ fortunes on field-goal tries as well.
Jordan Addison Will Lead the Vikings in Touchdowns
If it happened the year prior, it might be hard to argue it’s a bold prediction.
But Addison leading the Vikings in touchdowns once again in 2024 would still catch some by surprise because of two particular players on the roster who will command targets and touches.
Jefferson is healthy after missing seven games and parts of two others last year. And Jones, who averages nine touchdowns per season and is a threat in the air as well as on the ground, was added to the offense and will surely generate more production from that position than was provided last season by Alexander Mattison.
Plus, Addison is trying to recover from a sprained ankle sustained during joint practices with the Cleveland Browns two weeks ago.
Even still, it’s plausible Addison can duplicate or even improve upon his 10-touchdown outing as a rookie. Opposing defenses will certainly roll coverages toward Jefferson, providing Addison with ample opportunities in single coverage and/or against No. 2 cornerbacks.
Also working in Addison’s favor is another productive alternative to Jefferson in the passing game. Hockenson will miss at least the first four games of the season while on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell loves getting the ball to Jefferson when it matters most. However, in all the other times of the game, O’Connell has demonstrated the ability to use Addison in productive ways while the defense stresses over Jefferson.
The Vikings Will Have a Top-5 Defense
There are two predominant ways to measure a defense’s success — yards allowed and points allowed. One way or another, or perhaps by both measures, the Vikings have the pieces in place to boast a fast-rising defense.
In 2023, while dealing with schematic changes that come with a new coordinator, Minnesota’s defense was respectably middle of the road, ranking 16th in total defense (333.2 yards allowed per game) and 14th in scoring defense (21.3). Also, the Vikings ranked eighth and ninth best in run and pass defense, respectively.
With a full year under his belt and with better personnel, Brian Flores is in position to lead an impressive makeover on defense in Minnesota.
The primary improvement in this year’s defense for the Vikings will surely be the pass rush. The additions of Van Ginkel, Greenard, and Turner results in a net gain despite the loss of Hunter.
In the secondary, the Vikings boast one of the most dynamic and versatile safety rooms with Cam Bynum, Josh Metellus, and Harrison Smith teaming up. Metellus can play as a big nickel, as an undersized linebacker, or as a standard safety. Meanwhile, Smith is a field general capable in coverage and particularly well-versed in disguising and blitzing.
Cornerback is the position that has seen the most change, especially in the past month. But as is the case with the pass rushers, the additions seemingly result in a net gain when compared to the losses. Two-time All-Pro Stephon Gilmore was added this month to steady a group that also contains veterans Shaquill Griffin and Byron Murphy Jr.