The San Francisco 49ers just can’t catch a break when it comes to injuries. Christian McCaffrey (knee), Jordan Mason (ankle), and Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) are all on injured reserve, and now Isaac Guerendo (foot) is expected to miss Week 16.
With their top four running backs sidelined, who is left in the 49ers’ backfield? Let’s examine San Francisco’s options and what this means from a fantasy standpoint.
San Francisco’s Running Back Depth Chart and Fantasy Implications
The 49ers have two running backs who will be available on Sunday when they take on the Miami Dolphins: Patrick Taylor Jr. and Israel Abanikanda, who was recently claimed off waivers. It’s possible the 49ers will sign a third running back for depth, but let’s break what we expect from Taylor and Abanikanda, plus Guerendo’s outlook going forward.
Patrick Taylor Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook in Week 16
Taylor’s name popped onto fantasy radars once McCaffrey and Mason were lost for the season. With Guerendo deemed unlikely to play, Taylor now projects as the betting favorite to lead this backfield in work, and he’s only rostered in 24% of Yahoo leagues.
We have very little evidence of what the fourth-year pro is or isn’t on the professional level, but we do know a few things. We know that his versatility is limited and that this system is fruitful for running backs, even as we move down the depth chart.
After losing RBs Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell to season-ending injuries, it now looks as if the 49ers will be without RB Isaac Guerendo for Sunday’s game vs. Miami. Guerendo is dealing with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play, per source. pic.twitter.com/PyqyBCqPoT
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 19, 2024
Since 2022, running backs in this Kyle Shanahan system average 1.82 yards per carry before first contact, second-best over that stretch (behind only the Philadelphia Eagles) and 36.8% better than league-average.
In this a coin flip game, I’m counting on Taylor to get his hands on the ball, assuming Guerendo is officially ruled out, 14-17 times with some reasonable scoring equity against an ordinary scoring defense — he’s a low-end Flex for me that can bail you out if need be.
The fourth-year back has just 14 carries this season and 79 total on his NFL resume, but we did see him hold down a full-time role in college and he projects as the favorite to get the work this week. That’s not to say he’s a must-start (Miami held Joe Mixon to 23 yards on 12 carries last weekend), but it’s rare to find projectable volume on your waiver wire this time of year, and he projects for plenty of opportunities.
Israel Abanikanda’s Fantasy Outlook in Week 16
Abanikanda was on the preseason radar with the New York Jets as a fifth-round rookie last season, but it never panned into much (29 touches in six appearances).
The 49ers picked him up off of waivers after Week 13, and with Guerendo’s status now in doubt, Izzy could assume the RB2 role in this offense against the Dolphins.
The RB2 role carries less value in a Shanahan system than most, but he doesn’t have much between him and reasonable work, making him a fine speculative add given the state of waiver wires this time of year.
Stash and see — I’m not ranking him as a top-50 running back at the moment, but you can never have too many outlets on your roster, and I’d rather roster a player in this spot than a WR8 who might see three targets.
Isaac Guerendo’s Fantasy Outlook Going Forward
Remember all that time and energy we spent a week ago trying to get inside the head of Shanahan and the usage projection for a banged-up Guerendo?
Let’s be smarter.
Adam Schefter came out with confidence the day of the game last week and said that Guerendo was going to play. He doubled down by starting San Francisco’s RB1 in his most important fantasy league (yes, he’s one of us!).
In addition to the most plugged-in man in professional sports reassuring us, many were overlooking the obvious: this is the 49ers, and they rarely halfway use a running back.
San Francisco’s bell-cow role, percentage of RB touches:
- Weeks 1-2, Jordan Mason: 87.5%
- Weeks 10-11, Christian McCaffrey: 89.3%
- Weeks 14-15, Isaac Guerendo (minus Q4 of Week 14): 94.4%
Those aren’t “good” rates; they’re borderline psychotic in today’s game, but that’s what this team believes in. Instead of regressing their rates, as injuries suggest may be wise, the 49ers double (and triple) down.
Now, from a results standpoint, Week 15 wasn’t great. The 49ers mustered just six points, which meant that Guerendo’s 20 touches could only be somewhat impactful (75 yards).
I know it’s hard to overlook the results for the process this time of year, but no matter how your matchup played out last week, playing Guerendo against a defense that, entering the week, ranked 26th in rush EPA was the right call.
While Guerendo is unlikely to play in Week 16, once he’s healthy, he’ll be back in my starting lineup. Until I have a reason to pivot, I refuse. The 49ers are struggling (their TD rate has fallen from 33.5% last season to 20.8% this year), but their willingness to commit in an elite way to a single player is going to suck me in every time.
