2024 NFL Season Predictions: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Dolphins Earn No. 1 Seed in AFC

The NFL regular season is soon approaching, which means it’s that time of year when we start to make our predictions for the upcoming campaign.

Today, we used PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor to simulate the regular season, and we’ll break down its projections for the division winners and playoff picture in each conference.

What did PFN’s Playoff Predictor spin up in terms of drama and entertainment in the NFL landscape for the 2024 season? Let’s take a look.

Predicting the 2024 NFL Regular-Season Standings in the AFC

AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins (14-3)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-8)
3. New York Jets (8-9)
4. New England Patriots (6-11)

The AFC East produces just one playoff team for the first time since 2020 as the Dolphins end their 15-year division championship drought in dominating fashion. Miami, buoyed by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s contract extension just before training camp opened, finishes five games ahead of the Buffalo Bills in the standings. Miami also sweeps their division rivals for the season, going a staggering 6-0 in the competitive AFC East.

While Miami dominates their way through the regular season, the Bills and New York Jets each have very disappointing seasons. Despite Aaron Rodgers’ return from his torn Achilles injury, the Jets’ playoff drought continues, as they finish with a losing record.

AFC North

1. Cleveland Browns (12-5)
2. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)

Widely considered the toughest division in the NFL, the AFC North lives up to that billing in 2024 with three teams logging double-digit wins and no team finishing below .500.

While the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are considered the division’s heavyweights, the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North in this simulation.

Kevin Stefanski’s team finishes the regular season on a six-game heater, including an upset road victory against the Kansas City Chiefs and a prime-time win over a 14-win Dolphins team.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-5)
2. Houston Texans (11-6)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-10)
4. Tennessee Titans (5-12)

The simulation has the AFC South as a two-horse race once again in 2024, but this time, the Indianapolis Colts come out on top.

While the Houston Texans don’t quite live up to their lofty expectations for this season, they still finish with an impressive 11-6 record and the No. 5 seed in the AFC. Unfortunately for them, however, this means traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round.

AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
2. Las Vegas Raiders (5-12)
3. Denver Broncos (5-12)
4. Los Angeles Chargers (4-13)

It’s more of the same in the AFC West, as the Chiefs continue their dominance and finish a staggering six games ahead of second-place Las Vegas to claim their ninth-straight division title.

The surprise in this group is the Los Angeles Chargers, who finished a shocking 4-13 in their first season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Projecting the AFC Playoff Picture

1. Miami Dolphins (14-3)
2. Indianapolis Colts (12-5)
3. Cleveland Browns (12-5)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
5. Houston Texans (11-6)
6. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

When Mike Tomlin is at the helm of the lowest-seeded team and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is under center for the sixth-seeded group, it’s safe to say there are no easy outs in the 2024 AFC playoff field.

It’s a great year for a bye — chalk one up for Miami. Super Wild Card round action in the AFC features a Patrick Mahomes-C.J. Stroud matchup and an AFC North showdown between Cleveland and Baltimore. Get your popcorn ready!

Predicting the 2024 NFL Regular-Season Standings in the NFC

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
2. Washington Commanders (9-8)
3. Dallas Cowboys (8-9)
4. New York Giants (7-10)

Entering 2024, the NFC East had not had a back-to-back winner since the Philadelphia Eagles won their fourth-straight division crown in 2004. That streak now continues into 2025, with the Eagles ousting the Dallas Cowboys as champs following an impressive 12-5 campaign.

Not only does Dallas finish below rival Philadelphia in the standings, but they are also looking up at new head coach Dan Quinn, rookie QB Jayden Daniels, and the Washington Commanders in the standings for the first time in five years.

MORE: Simulate the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor

The Commanders’ marked improvement is the story of the year in the NFC East, and they have a chance to put the entire conference on notice in the Wild Card Round when they travel to Atlanta for a postseason contest against none other than Kirk Cousins and the Falcons.

NFC North

1. Detroit Lions (14-3)
2. Green Bay Packers (9-8)
3. Chicago Bears (6-11)
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-12)

Detroit’s division title last season was convincing. This season, it was downright dominant. The Lions finished five games ahead of second-place Green Bay and went undefeated in the division as well.

While Chicago and Minnesota struggled with rookie quarterbacks and spotty defense, Green Bay grinded its way to another above-.500 season with Jordan Love. They enter the postseason as the NFC’s No. 6 seed, which pairs them with the Eagles in the Wild Card Round. The Packers will look to avenge a season-opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil and win a playoff game in consecutive seasons.

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
2. New Orleans Saints (8-9)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
4. Carolina Panthers (5-12)

Atlanta is back atop the NFC South for the first time since 2016, with their heavy investment in quarterback Cousins and head coach Raheem Morris already paying dividends.

Year 1 of the Dave Canales experiment doesn’t pan out in Carolina, even with Bryce Young now in his sophomore season. And while New Orleans qualifies for the postseason, both the Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are stuck in mediocrity following eight-win seasons in what is widely believed to be a weak division.

Cousins came up on the short end of a revenge game during the regular season when he and the Falcons dropped a 19-16 decision to the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium, but Cousins gets another shot at revenge in the Wild Card Round when the Commanders come to town.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers (14-3)
2. Los Angeles Rams (7-10)
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-11)
4. Arizona Cardinals (5-12)

No one questioned the San Francisco 49ers’ hold on the NFC West entering the season, but most people were bullish on the competition’s chances of putting up a good fight.

It turned out to be a bear market in the division, however, as no other squad finished with more than seven wins. The futile effort to match San Francisco’s success will likely make for some hard decisions and dark days, especially at the quarterback position, for each of the other three franchises in the 2025 offseason.

FREE: Subscribe to PFN’s NFL Newsletter

As far as the 2024 postseason is concerned, though, it’s all sunshine and rainbows for the 49ers. They are the NFC’s top seed thanks to a head-to-head tie-breaking win over Detroit on Monday Night Football in the regular season’s penultimate week.

Projecting the NFC Playoff Picture

1. San Francisco 49ers (14-3)
2. Detroit Lions (14-3)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
4. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
5. Washington Commanders (9-8)
6. Green Bay Packers (9-8)
7. New Orleans Saints (8-9)

Whereas the AFC field is rife with parity, the NFC group feels top-heavy with a pair of 14-win teams plus a battle-tested, veteran 12-win Philadelphia team as the No. 3 seed. One would be hard-pressed to see a path to the Super Bowl for the others, particularly Washington and New Orleans.

Green Bay, meanwhile, has experience in this spot. Just a year ago, they were heavy underdogs but went into Dallas and won on Super Wild Card weekend. Philadelphia, losers of two of their final three regular-season games, would be wise to sharpen up in advance of facing Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love for a second time this season.