2024 NFL Season Predictions for the AFC Playoff Picture: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Chiefs Claim No. 1 Seed

Week 1 of the preseason is officially in the books, which means we’re one step closer to the start of the 2024 NFL regular season.

With the NFL Kickoff Game fast approaching, we used PFN’s Playoff Predictor to simulate the regular season, and it unveiled some surprising results.

Let’s take a look at the simulation’s predictions for the division standings and playoff picture in the AFC.

Predicting the 2024 NFL Regular-Season Standings in the AFC

AFC East

1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
2. New York Jets (7-10)
3. Miami Dolphins (7-10)
4. New England Patriots (6-11)

While the Bills had an offseason that suggests they’re in for a regression year, Josh Allen and Co. pick up right where they left off last season, winning the AFC East for the fifth time in a row.

No other team comes out of the AFC East with a winning record, even after the Dolphins gave Tua Tagovailoa a $212.4 million extension and the Jets get a full season of Aaron Rodgers.

Besides the Bills, New England finds itself with a favorable ending to the season, winning two more games than it did the previous year.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
2. Cincinatti Bengals (10-7)
3. Cleveland Browns (9-8)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)

In one of the top divisions in the NFL, every team besides the Steelers finishes the season with a winning record, ending Mike Tomlin’s 17-season streak of coaching the Steelers to a non-losing record. This would be poor timing for Tomlin’s streak to end, just one season after Pittsburgh signed him to a three-year extension.

Baltimore ends up winning the AFC North for the second season in a row, while Cincy and Cleveland post strong enough records to make the playoffs.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans (13-4)
2. Tennessee Titans (9-8)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9)
4. Indianapolis Colts (4-13)

After C.J. Stroud’s historic rookie season, he and the Texans return to a similar spot, winning the AFC South with a staggering 13-4 record. In Stroud’s sophomore season in the NFL, he leads the Texans to a league-leading 444 points and a point differential of +78 points.

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In their first full season with Will Levis as the starting quarterback, the Titans make the playoffs, just squeezing in as the No. 7 seed.

Surprisingly, both the Jaguars and Colts ended the season with losing records, meaning neither team qualified for the postseason. While Anthony Richardson is expected to have a strong bounce-back season, this simulation had a different idea.

AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
2. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
3. Denver Broncos (5-12)
4. Los Angeles Chargers (4-13)

An outcome that’s seemingly become inevitable at this point is Kansas City winning the AFC West. It has been doing it since Patrick Mahomes took the reigns, and it seems unlikely that trend will end anytime soon. As long as Mahomes and Andy Reid have each other, the Chiefs should continue to dominate.

As for the rest of the division, the Raiders go 8-9 for the second season in a row, and the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers each finish with terrible records.

While the Raiders’ biggest question mark surrounds the quarterback position, Gardner Minshew showed an ability to perform at a more than adequate level with Indianapolis when Richardson went down last season. With the addition of Brock Bowers in the draft, there’s a good chance the Raiders’ offense has an uptick in production this year.

Predicting the AFC Playoff Picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Houston Texans
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Cleveland Browns
7. Tennessee Titans

The defending champions take back the AFC throne, earning a first-round bye and home-field advantage. Stroud and Levis face off in the first round in an AFC South matchup, while Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson battle in a postseason meeting of AFC North teams. The Browns make their second consecutive playoff run, facing off against Allen and the Bills.